LAS VEGAS — This is a sterling stretch for Liberty football, the start of four consecutive weekday games, guaranteeing national-television exposure for the Flames.
And they deserve it, as one of five undefeated and untied programs against the spread.
The Flames are 4-0 against the number, while Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State and UNLV are all 5-0. Among that quintet, both Liberty and the Sooners are both covering the spread by an astounding 14 points.
That is impressive, and this week FBS newcomer Sam Houston State will prove to be no match for the Flames.
- NCAAF – Thursday (10/5) @ 7 p.m. ET
- Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Va.
- Line: Liberty -18, 47.5
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty Flames Odds
Our Pick: Liberty -18 (-110)
Sam Houston navigated the jump to FBS with gaggles of FCS players, and it showed on offense when the Kats mustered only 10 total points in their first three games with the big boys.
The Flames have too much talent, and that begins with sophomore quarterback Kaidon Salter, who is a top-30 national figure.
Liberty’s +1.8 turnover margin, tied for third nationally, doesn’t bode well, either, for Sam Houston.
Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-4, 2-2 ATS)
The Bearkats were thoroughly outmatched against BYU, Air Force and Houston, gaining only 443 total yards to those foes’ 1,053 yards. That trio collected 54 first downs to the Kats’ 22.
Finally, against Houston and only 129 minutes into the season, Trapper Pannell, a 6-foot-3, 205-pound sophomore, carried the ball in from 2 yards out for the Kats’ first touchdown of the season.
Three have played QB so far, but not former signal-caller Pannell, who has mostly run the ball from the position in his young career.
Sam Houston is simply woeful on offense, where it’s next to last in the country with averages of 9.5 points, 219.8 yards, 0.153 points per play and 3.5 yards per play.
The Kats are fortunate Kent State is around, because the Golden Flashes are last in the above categories at 6.3, 219.3, 0.098 and 3.4, respectively.
A bright spot is 5-9 senior linebacker Trevor Williams, who is tied with Purdue’s Dillon Thieneman with 34 solo tackles, second in the nation.
Veteran coach KC Keller, a former Delaware linebacker, experienced immense success at the Division-III and FCS levels, but he and offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Brad Cornelsen have found FBS a grand challenge.
Sam Houston State at Liberty Full Sportsbook Odds
Liberty Flames (4-0, 4-0 ATS)
Kaidon Salter was considered a top-20 national quarterback in his recruiting class, having thrown for 5,564 yards and 52 touchdowns as a senior. He just required another route to attain such collegiate recognition.
Out of Cedar Hill, Texas, he picked Tennessee over Arkansas, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Houston and others, but he barely lasted six months in Knoxville after a second arrest.
The car had no taillights, its license plate had a tinted cover, driving without a license and possession of four grams of marijuana.
The first pass he threw at Liberty, in 2021, went for a TD, and the 6-1, 190-pound sophomore has warmed to the school and program. In his past eight games, Salter has thrown 150 passes and had only one intercepted.
At 10 yards per toss, he’s one of 16 national QBs to average double-figure yardage, the stat that makes professional scouts drool. And he’s 13th with a pass-efficiency rating of 178.8.
And the Flames average 0.573 points per play, top-10 status that finds them ahead of Michigan and just behind Maryland, Oklahoma and Oregon.
Salter’s two danger targets are Treon Sibley (12 catches, 24-yard average, two TDs) and CJ Daniels (11 receptions, 23.9 average, two TDs).
Most impressive is that Liberty does not rely on Salter’s right arm to be exceptional every single game for it to have a chance to win.
It is one of seven programs that averages at least 500 yards of offense, but 271 of that comes on the ground. Only Air Force (320) averages more ground yardage than the Flames.
And the Kats yield 4.6 yards per run, in the bottom quarter of the game.
The three-headed ground monster for Liberty is Quinton Cooley (6.1-yard average on 53 carries), Billy Lucas (6.3, two TDs) and Salter, who has dashed 47 times for 268 yards (5.7-yard average) and five TDs.
We applaud Salter for staying in Lynchburg after Hugh Freeze bolted to Auburn. New coach Jamey Chadwell brought a triple-back, triple-option attack and lieutenants from Coastal Carolina, where they won often.
It’s too easy for a kid with an ounce of disgruntlement to move on these days, but Salter stayed put and Liberty is better for his loyalty.
Sports Betting Recommendation
Poor Jadon Cardell. Sam Houston’s sophomore has punted the ball 33 times already this season, more than anyone else in the country, and he’ll get many more chances in this game.
The first of four weekday tilts in a row for Liberty, a national CBSSN television audience will see one of the country’s best all-around quarterbacks, Kaidon Salter, operate for a squad that rarely gets such a spotlight.
The Flames are one of the best ATS squads in football, too, and they’ve pummeled the spread by a two-TD margin. That continues here, as Sam Houston’s offense isn’t close to Liberty’s lethal efficiency. A full unit play would be wise.
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