Trevor Lawrence injury, $10K sharp bet trigger major line movement for Jaguars vs. Saints TNF

Injuries play an integral part in every NFL season, but the carnage among starting quarterbacks has been even more dramatic this year.

NFL Week 7 kicks off on Thursday Night Football with the Jaguars vs. Saints. Jacksonville might be without the services of QB Trevor Lawrence, who suffered a sprained knee in Sunday's win against the Colts.  

The game opened as a pick 'em at the Las Vegas-based Westgate SuperBook, but the betting line moved to Saints -3 in early wagering. After Lawrence went down, all it took was just one wager to trigger major line movement for Thursday Night Football at the SuperBook. That was a limit bet (or max bet) of $10,000 on the Saints at pick 'em over the Jaguars.  

“It was definitely a sharp bet," SuperBook VP of Risk & Operations Ed Salmons told Sporting News on Tuesday. “If one of these guys that we respect bets it, then what do we think the line’s gonna be? Probably New Orleans -3, so we went right to three. You just get it to -3 as fast as you can.”

Lawrence injury effects on Jags vs. Saints spread and total

Lawrence was limited in practice on Tuesday, but expressed optimism about starting vs. the Saints. That public declaration produced another line move back toward the Jags. Here are live odds from across the sports betting industry for Jags vs. Saints:

The SuperBook was dealing Jags +1 with a total of 39.5 as of Wednesday morning.

The side went up and the total went down initially, which is customary whenever there's uncertainty about a starting QB playing. Salmons opened the Jags vs. Saints total at 42 on Sunday, and the number dipped to 40 by Monday morning. It was at 38.5 as of Tuesday before ticking up on Wednesday. 

The Saints have played to the Under in 11 straight games, and will have a good chance to make it an even dozen if backup QB C.J. Beathard starts for the Jaguars on Thursday.

Salmons characterized the betting handle for Jags vs. Saints as fairly typical -- and even slightly less if you don't include the $10,000 bet that prompted his line move -- for a Thursday Night Football game.

“People don’t like to bet on uncertainty, especially with the team that’s better,” he said.

An announcement on Lawrence starting or sitting could come as late as Thursday, and we wondered if any of the SuperBook's sharper clientele might have access to the news before the sportsbook does.

“We probably have one group that bets with us that’s like that," Salmons said. "They seem to be ahead of the curve on injuries."

Raiders lead list of Super Bowl liabilities at Vegas' SuperBook 

In what's been a recurring trend at Las Vegas-based sportsbooks in recent years, the Raiders represent the biggest Super Bowl liability for the SuperBook. The other teams on that list might surprise you. Salmons offered some insight on three of the top four teams at his book. 

• Raiders: "It’s just crazy. It’s the third straight year of it. It would be a miracle if they just made the playoffs.”   
• Patriots: “For the life of me, I just didn’t understand it. They just wouldn’t stop. I guess they think Tom Brady is walking through the door, and they are going back to the Super Bowl.”
• Steelers
• Saints: “They’re all betting the Saints because the division looks easy, and (looking) at the schedule on paper, ‘It’s like, oh, wow, they should easily go 11-6.'” 

With reports of Aaron Rodgers possibly returning late in the regular season, Salmons hasn't seen much added interest in Jets futures. New York is coming off a 20-14 win over Philadelphia that dropped the Eagles from the ranks of the unbeaten.   

“The Jets have the best defense in football," Salmons said. "As far as Aaron Rodgers coming back, I guess he could, but the version of him would be like the Joe Burrow that couldn’t move when they were throwing two-yard passes and losing.”

SuperBook monitors key 49ers injuries ahead of MNF vs. Vikings

The NFL's only other unbeaten team also went down in Week 6 when Cleveland hung on to beat San Francisco, 19-17. Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Christian McCaffrey (rib/oblique) both left the game due to injuries that could impact the 49ers versus the Vikings on Monday Night Football.

"When we put it up Sunday, we went -7 flat, and there was a move on that," Salmons said. "They took the 7, so we’re at 7 even now. I think Samuel’s going to play; it doesn’t sound like he’s seriously injured.

"McCaffrey’s the big question. I probably don’t think he’ll play. We think we’ll write enough on San Fran that we’re going to try and hold the seven for as long as we can.”