Iowa vs. Purdue betting lines, props, predictions: Boilermakers look to bounce back against high-powered Hawkeyes

Purdue began the season as the odds favorite to win the Big Ten, but a loss in the Boilermakers' first conference game makes tonight's game against Iowa very important. Starting 0-2 would be a big hole to dig out of as far as a Big Ten title. Purdue has plenty of talent, as evidenced by their early season wins over Marquette, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Xavier.

Still, Purdue is susceptible to ball pressure and athletic backcourts. Their 17 turnovers against Northwestern, combined with a bad shooting night, led to their upset loss in overtime. Through eight games, the Boilermakers are 4-4 against the spread but have not covered against their last three opponents.

Iowa is 5-2 to start the season and has yet to play a Big Ten game. The Hawkeyes are 3-4 against the spread and have only covered in one of their last four times on the court. Iowa has also hit the OVER total points in five of seven contests. The Iowa defense is not strong, and they prefer to win high-scoring games. Longtime head coach Fran McCaffery's Iowa teams have always played an offense-first play style that often sacrifices defense.

Fans and sports bettors can watch this game on Big Ten Network at 7 p.m. ET on Monday night as the Hawkeyes travel to Mackey Arena. Let's look at the live betting odds, betting news, player props and a prediction for Iowa vs. Purdue.

Live odds for Iowa vs. Purdue

Here are the live spread, moneyline and total points odds from the best online sportsbooks for Monday night's Iowa vs. Purdue Big Ten matchup.

MORE: Best College Basketball Betting Sites & Apps 2023 | College Basketball Odds: NCAAB Betting Lines, Spreads and Futures

Iowa Hawkeyes betting news

Iowa is off to a decent start this season. The Hawkeyes have not lost as a favorite, and their two losses were to good teams. After a 12-point loss to Oklahoma (67-79), the Hawkeyes have won two in a row, beating Seton Hall 85-72, covering a 1.5-point spread easily, and beating North Florida 103-78 and missed covering by two points on a 26.5 spread. 

Iowa has hit the OVER total points in each of those games, and if the Hawkeyes keep it close against Purdue, hitting another total points OVER is likely. We mentioned Iowa's weak defense under Fran McCaffery, and the Kenpom stats back that up. The Hawkeyes have the 15th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency on Kenpom but rank 111th in defense. 

Over the past five seasons, the Hawkeyes finished in the top 25 on Kenpom twice, yet they have not ranked better than 75th for adjusted defensive efficiency. Iowa has been in the top five for adjusted offensive efficiency each of the last five seasons. Only Gonzaga, who has had loads of NBA talent, has finished in the top five for offense in five straight seasons.

For Iowa, the lack of defense has kept them from being an elite team — they've been the best offense in the Big Ten almost yearly under Fran McCaffery. Yet we know that will not be the game plan for the Hawkeyes. They will live or die by their offense, and they have plenty of scoring options with five players averaging double figures.

Keep an eye on freshman forward Owen Freeman, who is 6-foot-10 and has been a surprise contributor for the Hawkeyes. He's averaging 10.3 points in 14.6 minutes per game. As the tallest player in the rotation, he will likely have to give more minutes to help against reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey. 

Purdue Boilermakers betting news

The Boilermakers were the odds favorite to win the Big Ten at the start of the season, and even after the loss to Northwestern, Purdue is still the favorite with even shorter odds than the start of the year. That is likely because the Boilermakers have looked like one of the best teams in college basketball to start the season.

We mentioned wins over four top-tier programs, and as crazy as it sounds, reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey is putting up even better numbers in fewer minutes played this season. Edey did all he could against Northwestern, with a season-high 35 points to go with 14 rebounds and three blocks. 

The turnover disparity led to the Boilermakers' loss. Northwestern only had three all game while forcing 17 Purdue turnovers. Purdue's guard's inability to handle ball pressure led to their NCAA Tournament upset as a No. 1 seed to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson last season when they had 16 turnovers.

For Purdue to avoid an 0-2 start in Big Ten play, they need their guards to take care of the ball and find ways to get it to Zach Edey. As good as the 7-foot-4 center is, he needs his teammates to get him the ball. Also, if Purdue struggles with turnovers, Iowa will capitalize — they are ninth in Kenpom's adjusted tempo and 15th in overall offense. 

If Purdue gets into a fast-paced shootout with Iowa, it could lead to another loss. If they slow it down and force Iowa to play defense in the half-court, the Boilermakers will score at will as they did in their 87-73 win over Iowa last season. 

Iowa vs. Purdue player props bets at FanDuel Sportsbook

Zach Edey prop bets

• 24.5 points OVER (-106) / UNDER (-120)
• 12.5 rebounds OVER (-115) / UNDER (-113)

Fletcher Loyer prop bets

• 10.5 points OVER (-130) / UNDER (+102)

Braden Smith prop bets

• 24.5 points OVER (-106) / UNDER (-120)
• 4.5 rebounds OVER (-125) / UNDER (-104)
• 6.5 assists (+104) / UNDER (-132)

Ben Krikke prop bets

• 16.5 points OVER (+100) / UNDER (-128)

Patrick McCaffery prop bets

• 10.5 points OVER (-104) / UNDER (-122)

Payton Sandfort prop bets

• 10.5 points OVER (-128) / UNDER (+100)
• 5.5 rebounds OVER (+104) / UNDER (-135)

Iowa vs. Purdue prediction: High-scoring game on tap

Iowa plays a soft press at times, hoping to force easy turnovers and drain some of the shot clock to avoid having to play half-court defense. It typically does not force many turnovers, but it may be against a soft Purdue backcourt. That could lead to a close game going into the half, but Purdue should pull away to win in the second half.

A double-digit spread may be a tough cover, so our favorite bet for this game is the OVER on total points. Iowa's defense is weak, and Purdue will score at will. Iowa's last two games hit the OVER, and Purdue's last four games hit the OVER, so each team's recent trends suggest a lot of points on Monday night.

Pick: OVER