Iowa vs. Northwestern over/under opens at record-setting 29.5; How low can total go?

For the second time in three weeks, the over/under point total in an Iowa football game has set at a record low.

The total for Iowa vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field opened at 29.5 Sunday, the lowest in the history of recorded college football odds.

Two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes played Minnesota in a game that had a total of 30.5 at some sportsbooks by kickoff, which is the current low for a game-time line. It broke the previous record of 31.5, which had happened twice in the past two seasons, both in Iowa games.

And, perhaps not surprisingly, each time oddsmakers test the ineptitude of Iowa’s offense and greatness of its defense, the Hawkeyes have come through with an Under.

Iowa vs. Northwestern over/under total points

The consensus total for Iowa vs. Northwestern is currently after some early betting.

Here are the full odds for the game at top-rated sportsbooks:

Why is Iowa vs. Northwestern total so low?

Iowa’s offense is last in the nation in yards per game (232.4) and in the bottom 15 when it comes to points per game (19.5).

It’s become so bad in Iowa City that reports were circulating Monday that offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, would be removed from his post following the season. The younger Ferentz had a points clause added into his contract this offseason, and barring an offensive explosion over the last month of the season, he won’t reach it.

But Iowa’s offensive troubles are just part of the record-breaking unders oddsmakers are setting for its games.

The Iowa defense is the polar opposite, holding teams to 14.5 points per game (sixth in the country) and 314.8 total yards per game (20th). 

Combine that with a Northwestern offense that averages just 21.8 points per game, and the possibility of a rainy Chicago day, and it’s the perfect recipe for another Iowa masterpiece.

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Should you bet Over or Under on Iowa vs. Northwestern total

Historic trends tell you that betting the Under is the correct pick when oddsmakers set an Iowa line at new depths. 

Two weeks ago, the Under hit in Minnesota’s 12-10 win against the Hawkeyes. The bet would have won even if a controversial flag hadn’t been thrown to wipe out Cooper DeJean’s incredible punt return TD in the final minutes.

The Under also cashed in two previous games Iowa had record-setting low totals – 2022 against Minnesota and Kentucky.

While Northwestern’s defense isn’t exactly the Purple People Eaters, Iowa’s offense has shown zero signs of life since starting QB Cade McNamara went down with an injury. It barely had a pulse while he was playing. 

Usual caveats apply here: Special teams and defensive touchdowns count toward the total, and if anything comes from that side of the ball for either team, you have zero room for error when trying to stay under 30 points. 

But Iowa keeps telling us that it’s possible, and who are we to doubt them?

Pick: Under 29.5.