The 2024 Preakness Stakes will be run without morning-line favorite Muth, and that opens things up for the eight remaining starters including Triple Crown hopeful Mystik Dan.
After being installed at 8-5 odds on the morning line, Muth came down with a 103-degree temperature on Tuesday night, which forced trainer Bob Baffert to scratch him. Baffert still has Imagination in the starting field on Saturday. Mystik Dan became the 5-2 favorite for the Preakness Stakes after Muth was scratched.
We've enlisted DraftKings & DK Horse Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello to help us lock in on our Preakness best bets including top trifecta picks, best exacta odds, sleepers, and more ahead of the second Triple Crown event of the year.
Preakness Stakes picks 2024: Odds to win
Here are morning-line odds for Saturday's Preakness Stakes:
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML odds |
| 1 | Mugatu | Jeff Engler | Joe Bravo | 20-1 |
| 2 | Uncle Heavy | Robert Reid Jr. | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 |
| 3 | Catching Freedom | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 6-1 |
| 4 | Muth | Bob Baffert | Juan Hernandez | Scratched |
| 5 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernadez Jr. | 5-2 |
| 6 | Seize the Grey | D. Wayne Lukas | Jaime Torres | 15-1 |
| 7 | Just Steel | D. Wayne Lukas | Joel Rosario | 15-1 |
| 8 | Tuscan Gold | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 8-1 |
| 9 | Imagination | Bob Baffert | Juan Hernandez | 6-1 |
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Preakness Stakes picks 2024: Best value bet
Catching Freedom (6-1 or +600)
This Brad Cox-trained colt ran a respectable fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and he should benefit from competing in a smaller eight-horse field. Somebody will need to join Imagination on the front end early.
“I think Imagination will be in the top spot," Avello said, adding that Just Steel and Tuscan Gold are also candidates to press the pace early. "Catching Freedom, who has a shot, needs to be closer. He can’t be 11 or 12 (lengths) back like he always likes to run. He needs to be much closer. Flavien Prat is a much smarter jockey than some of these guys, so he’ll know that he needs to be closer. ”
Per the Daily Racing Form*, only Mystik Dan (100) had a better Beyer-Speed Figure than Catching Freedom (97) in the Kentucky Derby.
Take a look at the speed figures for recent Preakness winners:
- 2023: National Treasure (98)
- 2022: Early Voting (105)
- 2021: Rombauer (102)
- 2020: Swiss Skydiver (105)
- 2019: War of Will (99)
Justify, the last Triple Crown winner in 2018, posted a Beyer-Speed Figure of 97 in his Preakness win that year.
*All Beyer-Speed Figures courtesy of Daily Racing Form
Preakness picks 2024: Best sleeper bet
Just Steel (15-1 or +1500)
Why are we touting a horse that finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby? Because he was simply given a bad ride by former jockey Keith Asmussen, who took him to the front early and then faded to finish 33+ lengths off the lead. The jockey change to Joel Rosario should serve Just Steel well.
Avello also pegged Just Steel as the best horse to consider at longer odds. He wouldn't have a problem with punters also using Uncle Heavy as a longer shot to hit the board.
"His numbers are slow, but he picks up Irad Ortiz (as jockey) and that’s always a big plus," he said.
MORE: When was the last Triple Crown winner?
Preakness Stakes picks 2024: Trifecta prediction and best bet
If favorites run to form on Saturday, that will result in a smaller payout for exotic bets such as the trifecta. With Mystik Dan leading way at 18-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, the winning $1 triple with Sierra Leone and Forever Young paid out handsomely at $1,134.84.
Top Preakness horses to consider: Mystik Dan (5), Catching Freedom (3), Imagination (9), Tuscan Gold (8-1)
Avello believes Mystik Dan is a worthy betting favorite without Muth in the field.
“They made him the favorite, and I think he deserves to be that,” Avello said. “He’s won two of his last three, and he also runs well on an 'off' track, and there are some predictions of possible rain that day.”
Along with Catching Freedom and Imagination, we'll also be using newcomer Tuscan Gold to (hopefully) increase our boxed trifecta payout. When you "box" horses, they can finish in any order as long as they come home in the top three.
“One of the new shooters in this race that has a chance is the horse Tuscan Gold," Avello said. "Not only is he a new shooter, he’s trained by Chad Brown, who's brought new shooters into the Preakness and won it in the past. This horse has that look.”
Brown owns two career Preakness wins with Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022) both bypassing the Kentucky Derby.
Related: What are Mystik Dan's odds to win the Triple Crown?
Preakness picks 2024: Exacta prediction and best bet
Keep an eye on Saturday's weather forecast. As Avello mentioned, Mystik Dan has shown that he can handle an off track. If weather becomes an issue, Mystik Dan could be bet down even further.
We'll be using three horses in our boxed exacta, which will hit if two of these horses run 1-2 in any order.
Top horses to consider: Mystik Dan (5), Catching Freedom (3), Imagination (9)
Good luck with your Preakness picks! Let's cash some winning tickets on Saturday.
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