Georgia vs. Auburn odds, prediction, betting trends for Week 5: Defending champs face first SEC road test

Georgia has won 11 straight road games and is 9-1 in its last 10 played at neutral sites. The two-time defending champs look to keep that run going as they travel into hostile territory for the first time in 2023, taking the field at Auburn for the 128th edition of the “Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.” 

While top-ranked UGA is 4-0, it has yet to cover a spread, pushing against Ball State, and failing to cash for backers that laid big numbers against FBS member Tennessee-Martin, South Carolina and UAB. Kirby Smart’s Dawgs have won their games by a combined margin of 166-45, but defeated their lone SEC opponent 24-14, trailing the Gamecocks by 11 points into the third quarter after being held to just a field goal over the game’s first 36 minutes on Sept. 16. 

Auburn is coming off its first loss last Saturday, falling 27-10 at Texas A&M in its SEC opener. The Tigers were down 6-3 at the break in College Station but managed only a defensive touchdown on a 67-yard fumble return early in the fourth quarter the rest of the way. Auburn is hoping to avoid a third consecutive losing season, something that hasn’t happened on the Plains since 1975-77. The Tigers have won their last four home games (3-1 ATS). They’re 23-8 over their last 31 at Jordan-Hare Stadium since late in 2018, but just 8-18 away from their building in that same span. 

Odds for Georgia vs. Auburn: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest betting odds for Georgia vs. Auburn from top-rated sportsbooks.

Georgia is favored by 14.5 points at most sportsbooks, after opening as a 16-point 'chalk'. Most books list the Bulldogs as a -600 to -650 moneyline favorite after opening -800. Auburn is +440 to +500 to pull the upset. The total has been set at 46.5-to-47. 

Georgia odds and betting breakdown

This will be the first time the Bulldogs are favored by fewer than 27 points this season. They were laying 13 against TCU in January’s National Championship game but were favored by only six against Ohio State in the semis. Georgia has covered four of its last five outside Athens. The Dawgs have won their first true road game eight years running, doing so in every season under Smart. UGA is 44-11 on the road or at neutral sites within that span but is just 3-4 ATS away from home over its last seven.

Georgia is 37-1 since Nov. 21, 2021, but has gone just 20-18 against the spread. The Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS in games where they’re favored by 17 points or fewer, so taking care of business in games that are expected to be somewhat competitive has been a strength.  

Despite losing elite defensive talent to the NFL the past few seasons, the ‘Dawgs remain stacked, led by potential First Team All-American defensive tackle Nazir Stackhouse. The offense hasn’t looked too crisp since Stetson Bennett graduated, but sophomore Carson Beck did throw three TD passes for the first time in his career last week. Given that he’d only seen action in mop-up duty prior to this season, this first-string Auburn defense will be the best he’s faced in his young career. 

Auburn odds and betting breakdown

The Tigers were picked to finish sixth out of seven teams in the SEC West in the preseason media poll. Hugh Freeze, formerly head coach at Ole Miss and most recently at Liberty, returned to the conference to replace Bryan Harsin, who was bought out of his contract after losing 10 of his final 13 games.  

Auburn starting QB Payton Thorne threw for just 44 yards on six completions in Saturday’s loss at Texas A&M but is likely to start again. Robby Ashford, limited as a passer, is a gifted runner, and may ultimately get the bulk of the snaps if the Tigers feel ball control is their best bet at an upset. After scoring 59 points in a Week 1 rout of UMass, AU has averaged just 12 points in splitting FBS road games at Cal and A&M. The ‘under’ has cashed in its last three games. 

Auburn has defeated Georgia only once in its last 10 matchups and is 1-7 since Smart took over, which includes a 28-7 loss in the 2017 SEC Championship Game. The Tigers have scored 10 or fewer points in six of the eight games against the Dawgs, and their team total for this game is in the 14.5-to-15.5 range. 

Auburn has covered just once in its last 10 matchups against Georgia. The under has cashed at an 80 percent clip over the last 15 encounters (12-3). Most of the home team’s injury concerns are on defense, where CB Deionte Scott and LB Austin Keys have been ruled out. Experienced backup safeties Donovan Kaufman and Zion Puckett are questionable. 

Georgia vs. Auburn prop picks

• Auburn/Georgia UNDER 5.5 total touchdowns (-125) 
• Auburn UNDER 1.5 total touchdowns (+100) 

The Tigers have a new offensive coordinator in ex-Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery working with Freeze, but they inherited QB issues that don’t look like they’ll be fixed quickly. Auburn will try and stick around on the strength of its defense, which is how it survived in a 14-10 win in Berkeley on Sept. 9. It has managed to score a touchdown in just four of the last 23 quarters in this rivalry, contributing to six straight losses. Georgia’s attack has also been shaky, and a conservative approach in Beck’s first road start is likely. 

Georgia vs. Auburn pick ATS

The Dawgs aren’t above winning ugly. This total is higher than it should be and probably takes Georgia scoring 157 points in impressive wins over LSU, Ohio State and TCU to capture last season’s national title into account. Meanwhile, Auburn has looked dismal on offense and isn’t likely to start finding answers against one of the country’s stingiest groups.

Consider backing the Under. 

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