Georgia State vs. Old Dominion odds, props, predictions: Expect Monarchs to exploit putrid GSU defense

We’ve been lying in wait to take action against this Georgia State defense, and this is the week we poach and profit.

The Panthers fared well in the first two months by going 6-1 under seventh-year coach Shawn Elliott, the former Appalachian State defensive end.

Then it skidded out of control. Georgia State dropped its past four games by scores of 44-27, 42-14, 42-14 and 56-14. In teams’ previous three games, only Louisiana Tech has yielded more average points (51.3) than the Panthers’ 46.7.

Next up is a trip to Old Dominion, which ESPN+ will show at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday.

In points-per-play margin, a metric we’ve long prized because so much is reflected in one figure, nobody is worse over its past three than Georgia State’s -0.495. Overall, the Panthers are underwater for the season with a -0.097 PPP margin, while Old Dominion is a bit wet at -0.029.

At home, however, the Monarchs sport an above-water 0.080, enough to get the job done. That's a key point to consider when analyzing Georgia State vs. Old Dominion odds.

Georgia State vs. Old Dominion odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Panthers at Monarchs:

Georgia State betting news: A humbling November for Panthers

What must be making ODU sophomore quarterback Grant Wilson lick his chops is Georgia State’s yield per opponent’s pass for the whole season: 8.5 yards that has the Panthers in the bottom dozen of the nation. 

However, that’s been 11.2 yards per throw—worst in the country—over their past three tilts. 

Old Dominion has given up 7.7 yards a throw to the other quarterbacks this season, but it’s honed that to 7.1 in its previous three and 6.7 against Georgia Southern last week.

Sixth-year senior Georgia State QB Darren Grainger completes two of every three tosses and has 2,161 aerial yards this season, and he also owns the Panthers’ career record of 52 TD passes.

Juniors Robert Lewis and Tallique Williams are his main targets, and junior tailback Marcus Carroll has run for 1,293 yards and 13 TDs. The ODU defense, however, is in the top third of D-I allowing just 3.8 yards per run.

Its star is Jason Henderson, a sophomore middle linebacker who leads the country with 166 total tackles. Next on that chart is Eastern Michigan’s Chase Kline, with 140. Henderson is tied for third, too, with 20 tackles for loss.

His partner in crime is sophomore weakside backer Wayne Matthews III, whose 105 total tackles make the national top-20 list.

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Old Dominion betting news: Schemes from Fordham might keep Panthers on heels

We especially like how Wilson, a 6-foot-3, 210-pound transfer from Fordham, has connected with new ODU offensive coordinator Kevin Decker, who used to be the OC at Fordham.

Wise move by fourth-year Monarchs boss Ricky Rahne, a former Cornell signal-caller. They pulled a trick or two last week to triumph at Georgia Southern, and now they get to experiment against the country’s sorriest defense.

With four capable wide receivers and two tough tailbacks, plus a clutch kicker, Old Dominion should be ready to defend the Astroturf GameDay Grass 3D of SB Ballard Stadium in the Naval bastion of Norfolk, Va.

In a tight one last week in Statesboro, Ga., against Georgia Southern, Decker turned to the tricks in the back of his playbook to have receiver Ahmarian Granger toss a 30-yard TD pass to Wilson.

It gave ODU a 17-10 lead and the Eagles tied it, but ODU won on a 22-yard field goal by kicker Ethan Sanchez as time expired. The 5.5-point underdog Monarchs won outright, paying off those who boldly took them on a moneyline near +200.

As about 6-point dogs, Old Dominion beat Louisiana (38-31) and Appalachian State (28-21) inside Ballard, inexplicably only defeated Texas A&M-Commerce by one while giving 26 points and, as a very slim favorite, dropped a 28-24 decision to Coastal Carolina.

Tailbacks KeShawn Wicks and Kadarius Calloway have both run for nearly 600 yards, and they’ve scored four TDs apiece. Four receivers have collected nine TD passes, and Kelby Williams (19.0) and Reymello Murphy (17.3) have dangerous per-catch yardage averages.

Wilson has neither completed 60 percent of his attempts (58.4%) nor thrown for 2,000 yards (1,818), but he has tallied 15 TDs with only six picks, and his dash out of the backfield for that TD catch last week will keep Panthers defenders honest.

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Georgia State vs. Old Dominion props

Prop bets for Georgia State vs. Old Dominion are hard to come by at online sportbooks. You can find halftime odds, however, at Caesars Sportsbook.

Caesars lists Old Dominion at -1 for the first half, and the halftime total at 26.5.

Georgia State at Old Dominion prediction ATS

How does this miserable four-game run end for Georgia State? Its foes have accumulated 2,110 total yards, 16 passing TDs and eight running scores. The Panthers answered with 1,296 yards, five TDs through the air and five on the ground.

To be fair, LSU was one of those opponents. In sum, though, they’ve been tossed around like rag dolls, and a visit to Norfolk will not be pleasant for a beleaguered GSU defense that figures to get exposed one final time this regular season.

Pick: Old Dominion