This week on the PGA Tour we have the two words in the golf world that send shudders down the spine of sportsbooks worldwide.
Those two words aren’t ‘bad beat’ although those have certainly had sportsbook directors shaking their heads in the past.
No, the two words that cause sportsbook directors everywhere to reach for the Tums or Pepto Bismol are: Tiger Woods.
Why? Well, those sportsbook operators know that when Woods is in a tournament field the bets will come pouring in and in record numbers.
And a good chunk of them will be on Woods. And most of those will be on Woods to win.
Hence the dilemma this week at the Genesis Invitational which sees the Tour setting up shop in California for the fourth time in five weeks.
The tournament will be at Riviera Country Club. This is also the third signature event of the year with a $20 million purse and $4 million to the winner.
This is the tournament that Woods also hosts and it’s also the event where a car accident a couple of years ago left him (and the rest of the golf world) wondering if his injuries would mean the end of one of the best careers we’re ever seen. (There’s always going to be the Nicklaus-Woods debate.)
To say he’s struggled to get back into form would be an understatement.
But, and here’s the problem for the sportsbooks, the bettors don’t care.
They will plunk down money to back Woods no matter the odds.
Speaking of odds, let’s take a little look at who might have the best chance to win in (hopefully) sunny SoCal this week.
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Tiger Woods' odds closer to matching his game, but still not a good value to win
The sportsbooks are finally putting up odds on Woods relative to his age, health and play.
That hasn’t been the case even as recently as last year’s Masters where he was +6000 despite all his troubles.
This week, at his own tournament, he comes in at .
Even at those great odds, we don’t see the value in betting on Tiger as he tries to pick up win No. 83 and pass Sam Snead on the all-time list.
But, and here’s where we’re trying to be realistic, the chances of Woods winning again on the PGA Tour are dwindling by the day.
Every event he’s not in contention to win is another reminder that he’s getting older, his health is never going to be 100 percent again and the amount of talent on Tour right now is unbelievable.
The simple facts are Woods’ odds should be much higher than they are this week because over the last three years, since that injury, he’s played in less than 10 Tour events.
His best finish is a T-18. That’s the good news. The bad news is there were only 20 players in this year’s Hero World Challenge.
Otherwise he’s been middle of the pack three times, has one missed cut and two WDs. There are no top 10s let alone victories.
Can he win? Never say never. Will he win? That’s where we’re drawing the line and looking elsewhere for winners.
Odds to win Genesis Invitational: Cantlay in good spot
Once again we can’t even think about betting on the defending champ as last year’s winner, Jon Rahm, is a distant memory on the PGA Tour.
So, checking out who’s hot this year and who played well in this event in 2023, we’ve come up with Patrick Cantlay at .
Cantlay is four-for-four in made cuts in 2024 with a T-12 at The Sentry on Maui and a T-11 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as his best finishes.
Nestled in between are a T-52 (The American Express) and a T-56 (Farmers Insurance Open).
Hmm, where is his game at right now?
Well, that’s the wrong question for us to ask.
The right one is: How does his play in 2024 and his finish in this event one year ago match up?
The answer is: Perfectly.
He’s coming in off a solid event at Pebble Beach after his two so-so weeks and he was solo third here last year after a T-33 the previous year.
He has eight PGA Tour titles in his career but didn’t win in 2023.
We feel that’s going to change this week and we love the value we’re getting.
Longshot bet to consider for Genesis Invitational odds
If you’re looking for a golfer who is coming in with good odds and coming off a great tournament, check out Wyndham Clark at .
Clark has made all four cuts in 2024 but had mediocre results over the first two events, a T-29 at The Sentry and a T-39 at The American Express.
Good, but nothing to write home about.
Then came what might be his breakthrough event of the year at The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
He didn’t start off the event well as he opened with a 72. He followed that up with a 67 and then his game hit its stride as he fired a third-round -- and as it turned out with the weather, the final round -- 60 and walked away with his third career victory.
He followed that up with a T-41 at the WM Phoenix Open as he stumbled home with a final-round 75 to drop 32 spots.
Without that 75 he’s likely in the running for at least a top-10 if not better.
Genesis Invitational prop picks
Our buddy, Charley Hoffman, is back.
And in a big way.
He’s coming off a playoff loss last week in Scottsdale which left him disappointed, of course.
But that finish also earned him enough points to earn a spot in this week’s big showcase event.
We’d love to pick him to win but we’re going to settle for picking him to be in the top 10 at .
He said that once he got healthy, his game is still good enough -- even at age 47 -- to beat the youngsters on Tour.
He’s right.
The other prop we like is that there will be a playoff.
We’re going to try and go back-to-back with prop bet wins as this one hit last week.
This week it’s +300 so we’re playing with house money after cashing last week.
The last two years haven’t seen a playoff here, but overall there have been four playoffs in the last 12 years.
We like our odds of this being the fifth.
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