Cinderellas in the college basketball world usually make their run in March, take the world by storm for a few weeks and ultimately give way to the next team up for their 15 minutes. Rarely do we see Cindy run it back with a preseason national ranking.
Florida Atlantic’s case isn’t normal. All five starters opted to return. Rather than claim a rightfully earned Power 5 gig, head coach Dusty May stayed put, signing a 10-year extension. It probably helps that the school is located just north of Fort Lauderdale in an upscale part of South Florida, but the bottom line is that everyone believes this should be a special year for the Owls.
That makes FAU’s visit to Tulane awfully interesting. Although it has had a successful season so far, the Owls (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) are 1-2 since their 96-95 double-OT win over Arizona on Dec. 23, and in danger of falling under .500 in the American, their new conference.
In Tulane (10-4, 5-8), the Owls face an opponent that is 0-4 against Quad 1 or Quad 2 teams in the NET rankings, but this won’t be an easy road game.
Handicapping Florida Atlantic vs. Tulane betting odds, props, and predictions hinges on whether you think the Owls are truly stale, because it’s far too early to be bored with the regular season or the AAC. They have the requisite depth and talent to not be fraudulent, and the grind hasn’t really hit yet.
Analyzing whether this Tulane team can pull off an upset also factors in, although its best win, at California, is starting to look all the more impressive.
Florida Atlantic vs. Tulane odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest college basketball betting odds for Owls vs. Green Wave:
Florida Atlantic betting news: Martin’s struggles a common denominator in losses
Although shooting guard Alijah Martin is still a prolific 3-point shooter who leads the team in makes and attempts and is a lockdown defender, he’s had his troubles in FAU’s four losses. Martin has shot just 11-for-42 (26 percent) from the field and 7-for-23 from 3-point range (30 percent) in the games the Owls have dropped, and two of those setbacks have come by four or fewer points.
Star wing Johnell Davis (16.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg), who dropped 35 points against Arizona, is still a top candidate to be the AAC Player of the Year. Seven-footer Vladimir Goldin (14.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg) has proven he can play in any league. May is a terrific coach.
The season can absolutely go south if Jalen Gaffney’s struggles continue or Martin slumps in big games, but the Owls are rightfully hovering around the Top 25 in the NET rankings and games against the AAC’s other top team, Memphis, don’t arrive until late February and early March.
It’s just important not to let things snowball, and a loss in New Orleans would be their third in four games and their first back-to-back defeats since the end of the 2021-22 season.
Davis briefly left the Charlotte loss with what appeared to be a head injury but returned and should be in the mix against the Green Wave. He’ll attempt to get FAU off to a strong start and has averaged nearly 21 points, 7.1 rebounds and three assists since December began.
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Tulane betting news: Green Wave seek landmark win after ugliest loss of the season
The Green Wave lost 106-76 against their toughest opponent to date, falling in Atlanta on Dec. 9. An offense that ranks eighth nationally in scoring (86.9 ppg) produced their lowest-scoring performance of the season in a 70-56 loss as a short underdog at North Texas, shooting just 37 percent from the field and getting crushed on the boards 47-24, so this is a clear bounce-back spot.
Another major issue in Saturday’s loss to the Mean Green was that they finished with just five assists on their 19 field goals. For the second straight season, the offense is running through big man Kevin Cross, who leads the team in scoring (16.0 ppg), rebounding (7.8 rpg) and assists (5.0 apg). He had consecutive triple-doubles last month, but fouled out over the weekend.
Last season’s top scorer, wing Jaylen Forbes (14.2 ppg), has seen his scoring average dip by over four points and is shooting just 37 percent from the field, the only starter below a 52 percent clip. He was way off at North Texas and finished 2-for-9 from the field, so any realistic hopes for an upset hinge on him returning to form.
Against Mississippi State, Forbes scored just six points on 1-for-6 shooting and fouled out. In Tulane’s best win, a 117-110 OT win against Furman, he finished with a season-high five assists and scored 26 points. He’ll be the x-factor.
The Green Wave have been shorthanded without top reserve Tre Williams, who has been absent due to an ankle sprain. Ron Hunter would love to have him back for this upset bid.
Even though Tulane won 20 games last season, it lost a pair by a combined 50 points against Houston and was crushed 96-56 by Memphis to end its season in the AAC Tournament. They had high hopes this season, have largely underachieved and are facing their first ranked opponent. This is a great opportunity to get things kick-started.
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Florida Atlantic vs. Tulane player prop picks
- Kevin Cross OVER 4.5 assists (-102)
- Johnell Davis OVER 17.5 points (-115)
- Kolby King OVER 13.5 points (-130)
Tulane’s Cross had an off day this past weekend in Denton, but he’s a pretty reliable source of assists. His FanDuel number (4.5) is easily accessible, especially in what is set to be a fast-paced game. Ride the OVER on Cross’ helpers.
Davis’ points total has been set at 17.5 points, and he and Tulane’s Kolby King (13.5) are very likely to find a rhythm in what should be a fast-paced contest featuring lots of points.
Florida Atlantic vs. Tulane ATS pick
As you might imagine by taking a glimpse at a total this high, oddsmakers are expecting to see the scoreboard get a workout at Devlin Fieldhouse. Tulane scores a lot of points and will be looking to wash that awful taste from their weekends out of their mouths.
Three of FAU’s four losses have seen it score fewer than 70 points, and the Owls have only won once when they’re held under that number. FAU averages over 81 points and has scored 89 or more on seven occasions. Don’t let the large total scare you off the high side.
Pick: OVER
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