At least a share of first place in the NFC South will be at stake Sunday afternoon when the Atlanta Falcons face the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 7 NFL action. The South's divisional race may come down to who wins this Falcons vs. Buccaneers NFL Week 7 matchup.
In what is expected to be a defensive battle, based on the over/under totals, this matchup has seen the point spread hold steady since the Westgate SuperBook listed Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point choice Sunday night. However, when the Westgate first put up numbers for this matchup in May, the Falcons were a 1-point favorite.
The Bucs (3-2 straight up), in their first season with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, are also 3-2 against the spread. Atlanta (3-3 SU), with Desmond Ridder in his first full season at QB, has a 1-5 mark against the line.
With the over/unders, both teams have cashed in for "under" bettors in all but one game.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds: point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest live NFL betting odds for the Falcons vs. Bucaneers:
The Falcons vs. Buccaneers matchup entered the week as one of the few with an O/U number at less than 40 points. Through six weeks in such instances, the "over" has occurred only four times in 11 games. This will be the first outing in 2023 that Atlanta or Tampa Bay has been involved in such a game.
League-wide last week, the under cashed in on 12 of 15 games. That's quite the contrast to Week 2 games, when it was the over that went 13-3.
For the season, the under has paid off for bettors in an amazing 56 of 93 games (.602).
In this series, the Bucs had won five straight (3-2 ATS) until falling in last year's season finale at Atlanta 30-17. Tampa Bay had already clinched the division and played many reserves.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers injury report
Here is the current injury report for the Falcons vs. Bucs matchup:
Falcons betting news
The Falcons are coming off a jarring 24-16 home loss to Washington last week despite holding the Commanders to 197 yards. That was the lowest output for a winning team in the past two seasons.
What crushed Atlanta and caused head coach Arthur Smith to cringe on multiple occasions visibly was Ridder's three INTs. Two interceptions, one from the Washington seven-yard-line and another from the Commanders' 34 in the fourth quarter, were particularly damaging. Last week's effort gave him three interceptions in enemy territory this year.
A positive note for the Falcons is that road teams are 45-41-4 against the spread entering Week 7. The Bucs are 1-2 ATS at home.
Also, it's hard to comment on the Atlanta offense without mentioning its potent running game led by rookie Bijan Robinson, averaging 5 yards on 80 carries.
Buccaneers betting news
The Bucs were cruising nicely and coming off a bye last week before being dumped at home by the powerhouse Detroit Lions, 20-6.
Mayfield, who was being lauded all over the airwaves for his play after bouncing around the league a year earlier, had his worst game of the year (based on passer rating) as the Bucs failed to score a touchdown. Even worse, he was working against a Lions secondary down three starters.
Tampa Bay's defense couldn't get off the field, either, yielding to a Lions offense with nine third-down conversions. At least the unit held Detroit to 40 yards rushing on 23 carries, a nice accomplishment considering the Lions entered the game with a norm of 141 ground yards an outing and 4.3 yards per carry.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers props
Look at some prop bets for the Falcons vs. Buccaneers at top-rated sportsbook apps nationwide.
Halftime Leader/Full-Time Result (BetRivers):
- Bucs/Bucs: +135
- Bucs/Falcons: +700
- Bucs/Tie: +2200
- Tie/Bucs: +1500
- Tie/Falcons: +1800
- Tie/Tie: +6000
- Falcons/Falcons: +220
- Falcons/Bucs: +750
- Falcons/Tie: +2800
Passing props for Bucs QB Baker Mayfield
Passing props for Falcons QB Desmond Ridder
Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions
This week, Mayfield won't have the luxury of going against a secondary loaded with reserves. Plus, he won't get much help from a running game averaging a league-low 3.0 yards a carry.
Even in defeat last week, Atlanta dominated possession (79 snaps to 50 for Washington) and generated 402 yards of offense.
Information: NFL MVP betting odds
Surely, Arthur Smith has made it clear to Ridder that careless throws won't be tolerated.
After all, the Falcons' backup QB, Taylor Heinicke, has plenty of starting experience from his days in Washington. Included is a 29-19 victory over the Bucs and Tom Brady two seasons ago when Heinicke was 26-for-32 passing and had a career-best 81.3 completion percentage.
Prediction: Falcons money line and under.
How to watch Falcons vs. Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 22
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. EDT
- Location: Raymond James Stadium -- Tampa, Fla.
- Where to Watch: Fox
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Sporting News has editorial oversight for this content. Learn more >