We are one step away from knowing which team will represent the AFC in Las Vegas at Super Bowl LVIII, and we’ll take it together this Sunday when the Chiefs travel to M&T Bank Stadium to square off with the conference’s top seed, the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens are favored by -3.5 and the O/U opened at 44.5. We just need to surmise the "who" and "how" parts of this wagering landscape. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson each threw for two scores last week, with Jackson also notching two on the ground.
Conference championship betting is always fun and a great way to line the coffers in advance of the big game. Let’s focus specifically on Patrick Mahomes props and Lamar Jackson props, and figure out how to make some ends before this season ends.
QB passing prop bets for Chiefs vs. Ravens: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson props
Check out NFL prop odds on passing yards for Chiefs vs. Ravens:
More: Best NFL betting sites | Latest NFL betting odds
Quarterback prop bets and trends for Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship game
Making QB prop bets earlier in the season can be a bit easier than doing so in the waning moments — it’s easier to differentiate between who you think is good and who you think ain’t all that.
You don’t make it to within a game of the Super Bowl without above-average QB play, and we see that with the signal-callers for this game, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Jackson sits at -20000 odds to win MVP, and Mahomes has made it to the AFC Championship game in all six years he’s played. Both QBs routinely produce highlight-reel plays on the ground and through the air, despite the fact that the Ravens WR room has improved a lot since 2022 while Kansas City’s has suffered through the growing pains of watching rookies like Rashee Rice emerge.
Kansas City has also dealt with the effects of striking out big-time with their acquisition of Kadarius Toney, who went from scoring a TD in the Super Bowl last year to being benched for the playoff run this year due to his putrid play.
On the Ravens side, the big thing to keep an eye on is if standout TE Mark Andrews returns from what most assumed would be a season-ending leg injury. If he’s on the field, it certainly adds another dimension to the Ravens attack.
Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson prop bets for Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship game
Both QBs OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+310 @ BetRivers)
The current prop offerings of +1.5 passing TDs for Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are promising both individually and as a paired group for AFC Championship Game prop bettors. It stands to reason that both QBs will be airing it out in this showdown, and game-script wise if one QB throws two TDs it puts the other in the kind of rhythm to keep pace with that and also notch two or more.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER passing attempts
KC will definitely aim to move the ball through the air early and often, but this passing attempt total feels high. The Chiefs will likely employ a somewhat balanced offensive game plan, and unless they are getting absolutely demolished they’re going to run a fair amount to limit the amount of time Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have with the ball.
Patrick Mahomes OVER interceptions
If the over on this was +1.5, shying away from making prop bets on interceptions would make more sense. However, with the Chiefs wideouts’ propensity for batting well-thrown balls into the air and/or into DBs’ hands, betting for just one pick to take place makes sense. After all, Mahomes is going to be making some rushed throws throughout the game with Roquan Smith and the Ravens defense breathing down his neck.
Lamar Jackson OVER passing yards
Conference championship passing yard prop bets tend to skew toward lower yardage totals, but that said projecting Lamar Jackson to throw for just a hair over 200 yards feels like a comfy AFC Championship Game prop bet. With Zay Flowers, OBJ and a host of other big-play merchants on offense, don’t be surprised if Jackson comes closer to 300 yards passing than 200.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Sporting News has editorial oversight for this content. Learn more >