Having played in the Eastern Conference finals in three of the past four seasons, there’s no Celtics vs. Heat meeting that’s unimportant. During the regular season, it typically offers both a barometer of where they are as games have been conveniently spaced out from early to late in the season.
Round 2 finds Boston comfortably atop the entire league, while Miami is languishing in the midst of its worst month, coming off one of its ugliest losses. The depleted Grizzlies came through South Florida on Wednesday and pulled off a 105-96 upset as a double-digit underdog, spoiling the debut of newly acquired guard Terry Rozier.
Handicapping Celtics vs. Heat betting odds, props, and predictions includes knowing whether host Miami plans on bouncing back immediately or will choose to rest some guys on the second night of a back-to-back.
Because the teams only meet three times this season, Boston can clinch the season series with a victory. It took the Oct. 27 matchup – Game 2 of the season for both – 119-111 on the strength of a big fourth quarter. All five starters scored in double-figures in that one, led by Derrick White’s 28 points.
Celtics vs. Heat odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest NBA betting odds for Boston vs. Miami:
Celtics betting news: Healthy group continues as betting favorite to win championship
The Celtics (34-10 SU, 21-21-2 ATS) come in winners of five of six, and have gotten two days off after winning a Sunday-Monday back-to-back over the Rockets and Mavericks. They’ll be home for the next seven games after this one and will actually be back in Miami on Feb. 11 for their next road game.
Boston is in the midst of a challenging stretch, but appears to be locked in and is playing winning basketball. It's suffered a few tough losses in January, but continues to look like the team to beat and is the betting favorite to win the East () and the NBA Finals ().
Following their first home loss of the season against the Nuggets after 20 consecutive wins, the Celtics hit the road for this trip and are at full strength. Centers Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford have alternated playing in back-to-backs lately, but are both available to deal with Adebayo and Kevin Love.
Boston saw Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown dominate in Texas, so both look sharp as they arrive at the Kaseya Center. They combined for 49 points and 14 rebounds against the Heat in the first matchup and always get up for the challenge of facing Butler and Miami’s other diligent perimeter defenders.
Boston has been effective on both sides of the ball of late, but the UNDER is on a 5-0 run in its games since every one of them has been set above 226.
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Heat betting news: Miami looks for upset to avoid five-game skid
The Heat (24-20 SU, 19-23-2 ATS) remain ahead in the Southeast Division by a single game over Orlando but have already made one significant tweak to their roster, unloading veteran Kyle Lowry and a 2027 first-round pick to acquire Rozier from Charlotte.
Although they could be accused of having been caught looking ahead to Boston’s visit, Erik Spoelstra’s team started All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo Wednesday against the Grizzlies, and led after a quarter as they looked to avoid matching their longest losing streak of the season.
Spoelstra called this season a ‘funky point,’ discussing all the upsets we’ve seen of late and addressing short-handed Memphis knocking down 17 of 36 3-point attempts despite top gunner Luke Kennard being sidelined. Miami is struggling, though, having fallen at Toronto in blowout fashion, home against Atlanta on a Trae Young buzzer-beater, and against Orlando on Sunday 105-87 prior to last night.
Rozier came off the bench and will be utilized in that role for the foreseeable future, with Josh Richardson starting. Rookie Jaime Jaquez was sidelined Wednesday due to a groin strain, but may be in the mix for this Celtics game, and Haywood Highsmith replaced Nikola Jovic at power forward next to Adebayo.
Love left the Grizzlies loss feeling ill after playing just 5:06, so he’d presumably have his legs under him to suit up here if he’s feeling up to it. Butler caught a late elbow to the face that drew blood, but finished the game and would be able to play if Miami wants to expose him to action on the second of a back-to-back.
Spoelstra still has to settle on rotations going forward, and his team will face the Knicks twice, Suns, Kings, and 76ers over the next five games, so the Heat could be in the midst of a huge slide if they can’t tighten things up.
A major reason for getting Rozier on board is to add scoring punch, as the UNDER has prevailed in seven consecutive Miami games due to their struggles in that department.
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Celtics vs. Heat player prop picks
Adebayo is the only Heat player BetMGM is counting on enough to have props available for, and the Miami center played nearly 40 minutes against Memphis. He scored 15, grabbed 15 rebounds, had six assists, and blocked six shots in a terrific effort, so he might not have a lot in the tank and is worth fading given that both Porzingis and Horford will be keeping him busy. Ride the UNDER on his points total of .
Brown followed up a rough day at the office in the home loss to Denver with a triple-double in Houston and a dominant 34-point game in Dallas that included dropping Luka Doncic with a crossover that made all the highlight shows. He’s typically strong against the Heat, so backing the over on points at BetMGM is worth a look.
Celtics vs. Heat ATS pick
The scores in games involving these teams have fluctuated wildly over the years, spanning the spectrum of 95-78 to 134-121 so I want nothing to do with the total. The Heat are going to do their best to try and avoid an embarrassing nationally-televised loss against a rival, but had to work much harder than they intended to against the Grizzlies and look ill-equipped to face a rested, polished Boston side. Lay the points with the Celtics.
Pick: Celtics
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