The NFL postseason gets underway with the No. 5 Cleveland Browns traveling to Houston to take on the No. 4 Texans in the AFC Wild Card round. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston and will be broadcast on NBC.
Cleveland (11-6 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) beat the Texans (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) during Week 16 in Houston, 36-22. But the game was more lopsided than the score indicates. The Browns led 36-7 early in the fourth quarter before the Texans scored twice in garbage time.
Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards (265 to Amari Cooper) and three touchdowns but also had two interceptions. But the Texans were without C.J. Stroud and struggled to get their offense on track.
The Browns were 3.5-point road favorites in that game.
Browns vs. Texans odds: Point spread, moneyline and total for AFC wild-card game
Here are live odds for Browns vs. Texans from the top NFL betting sites:
The Browns and Texans have played 14 times. With Cleveland winning the most recent meeting in Week 16, both teams have won seven. But the Browns have won the last four games vs. the Texans, including the last two in Houston.
However, they are 3-5 all-time when playing the Texans on the road in Houston.
More wild card weekend: Dolphins vs. Chiefs | Eagles vs. Buccaneers | Steelers vs. Bills
Browns betting trends and news
- Cleveland was 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS on the road.
- They were 2-1 SU and ATS when favored on the road.
- The Browns ended the regular season on a 4-1 run SU and ATS.
- The OVER was 11-6 this year and 6-1 in their last seven games.
- The OVER was 8-4 vs. AFC opponents, 8-0 on the road and 3-0 when a road favorite.
- Seven players sat out the first practice this week because of an injury.
- HC Kevin Stefanski has said it is unlikely kicker Dustin Hopkins will play.
Texans betting trends and news
- Houston was 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS at home.
- They were 2-2 SU and ATS as home underdogs.
- The Texans ended the season going 2-0 SU and ATS but were 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six.
- The OVER was 6-11 this year and 2-5 in their last seven.
- The OVER was 3-6 at home, 2-3 when favored at home and 5-7 vs AFC opponents.
- Several key players missed the team's first practice because of injuries or scheduled rest.
- Wide receivers are the biggest concern. Tank Dell was lost for the season a few weeks ago, and Noah Brown and Robert Woods missed the regular season finale due to injuries.
Browns vs. Texans: Injury report
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Browns vs. Texans player props
Passing touchdowns
If you look at the stats for the Browns offense this season, they did not have a good passing game, averaging 217.2 YPG with 24 touchdowns. But you should consider how well the offense played once Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback (323.2 YPG).
Over half of the team's passing touchdowns came in Flacco's five starts. But the Houston defense has been stingy against the pass, allowing just 17 all season.
C.J. Stroud had an incredible rookie season with over 4,000 yards passing (273.9 YPG) and 23 touchdowns. In his 15 starts, he had multiple touchdowns in eight, one in four and zero in three. He did not play against the Browns in Week 16.
Cleveland's defense led the league in total yards (270.2 YPG) and passing yards allowed (164.7 YPG) but gave up 23 passing touchdowns this season. Davis Mills recorded two in the second half of their Week 16 contest.
To throw an interception
C.J. Stroud has done a tremendous job protecting the ball this season, throwing just five picks all year. His last one was in Week 14 vs. the Jets when he had three. However, the Cleveland secondary was one of the best at forcing turnovers (28 total with 18 interceptions).
While Joe Flacco has been brilliant in his return, he has also been interception-prone, with at least one in every game he's started and multiple picks in two. The Houston defense recorded 14 interceptions this year, including two off Flacco in Week 16.
Rushing yards
Texas was not a strong running team this year, averaging 96.9 YPG and 10 rushing touchdowns. Cleveland's defense ranked No. 11 against the run, allowing 105.5 YPG. Houston recorded just 72 yards in Week 16 against the Browns.
Houston also has a solid run defense, allowing an average of 96.6 YPG. After losing Nick Chubb for the season, the Browns often struggled to establish the run game. The team's leading rusher had 100-plus three times and less than 50 in seven.
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Browns vs. Texans analysis
The Texans were not supposed to win the division this season, let alone make the playoffs. But rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was everything they hoped for and more when Houston took him with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
He helped take an offense that ranked near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories and turned it into one of the better offenses in the NFL (No. 12 total yards, No. 8 in passing, No. 14 in scoring).
Against the Browns, the key to the game will be how well the defense can play. With the emergence of Joe Flacco down the stretch, the Browns have become dangerous on offense.
They've averaged well over 300 YPG passing with Flacco, but they had difficulty establishing a run game. Cleveland ran for just 54 yards against Houston in Week 16 and had one 100-plus yard rushing day with Flacco at quarterback (vs. Jets).
It will not matter what the defense does if C.J. Stroud can't get the offense moving against arguably the best defense in the league. Davis Mills and Case Keenum struggled in Week 16, gaining just 250 total yards on the day and scoring 22 points (15 in garbage time).
But the offense will be much better with Stroud behind center.
Bet(s) to consider
Texans
Don't expect this game to look anything like the Week 16 between these two teams. This one could easily go either way. It will come down to which defense has the better day and who can get their offense on track and make fewer mistakes.
Houston may have a slight edge playing at home.
Yes, the Browns won a few weeks ago in Houston. But the Texans will be better with C.J. Stroud in the lineup.
Joe Flacco, OVER passing touchdowns
Joe Flacco, to throw an interception
The Houston defense will step up its game this time — it will not need to win the game for the Texans since the offense will do more with C.J. Stroud back.
But the Browns have been winning because of Flacco's success in the passing game. It's hard to say what his yardage total will be, but he should throw two touchdown passes in this game. However, he's also likely to have at least one interception, too.
Devin Singletary, OVER rushing yards
Devin Singletary, OVER rushing attempts
Establishing the run is tough against the Browns defense, but it may be the key to the game for Houston (Joe Flacco can't score from the sideline). The Texans managed just 72 yards on 16 carries in Week 16 against the Browns, with Singletary handling nine carries for 44 yards.
But in the four games where he had more than 16.5 carries, he gained 100-plus yards and scored a touchdown in three.
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