Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 home run prop picks: Bryce Harper heating up in NLDS

The Braves vs. Phillies series was the most anticipated series of the divisional round in the MLB Playoffs, and they’ll take center stage in prime time tonight as the only game on the schedule. With the exciting potential closeout game quickly approaching, we’re taking a look at the home run prop odds for the contest. 

The Phillies pulled out a dominating 10-2 victory Wednesday in Game 3 of the NLDS on the road. Today, they’ll have a chance to end the Braves’ record-breaking season at the mad house that is Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia at 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS. 

Take a look below at the best MLB home run props we found for today’s game. If you’re interested in wagering, check out the promos on the market from the top-rated sportsbooks to get in on the action with house money.

Best MLB home run prop picks for NLDS Game 4 Braves vs. Phillies

Bryce Harper to hit a home run

It’s October, and there aren’t many bats as hot as Bryce Harper’s this time of the year over the last two runs for the Phillies. He finished last year with six total, and he is picking up where he left off against the Braves’ dominant pitching staff. In three games in the NLDS, he has hit three home runs, including two last night.

Spencer Strider will take the mound again for the Braves in hopes of keeping their season alive. Strider finished the season with the most strikeouts in MLB. He is as dominant as they come, but there is always one who gives them problems. For Strider, it’s Harper. In 18 total plate appearances, Harper has two home runs and a .278 average. One of those home runs was in Game 1 of this series, which was the only run he allowed in that start.

Strider’s top two pitches are the four-seamer and slider, which he uses at 59% and 34% clips, respectively. Harper obliterates the four-seamer, but he is vulnerable against the slider. However, while Strider’s slider is as good as they come, he puts it in the zone six percentage points above league average this season. No matter how good a pitch is, if it’s in the zone, Harper has a chance to get to it, which he did in Game 1.

Getting around Harper is a hard feat, especially when his teammates are batting the way they are at the moment. Look for Harper’s hot streak to continue in this one.

Austin Riley to hit a home run

We liked Austin Riley’s odds to hit a home run yesterday, and although he didn’t pull it off, we like his odds again in this one. Riley is one of the few Braves seeing the ball well in this series. He hit a solo, go-ahead shot in Game 2 to avoid an 0-2 hole, and he registered two hits in Wednesday night’s game. Tonight, he’ll square off with Ranger Suarez. He is hitting .333 against Suarez and is one of four Braves who have gone yard against the Phillies veteran lefty.

Suarez is one of the most versatile pitchers in the game. He uses four pitches at similar usage rates – sinker (28%), four-seamer (21%), curveball (19%), and changeup (18%). That number of pitching options usually gives a pitcher a significant advantage with at least one of the pitches, but not against Riley. Riley hits each of Suarez’s pitches at clips of .331, .253, .366, .327, respectively.

Regardless of what Suarez throws his way, he is highly capable of making contact, and that shows in success against him compared to his teammates. He may not be the best hitter on the team, but he is performing the best in this series, and he has Suarez’s number. If any of the Braves go yard tonight, it’s likely to be him.

Matt Olson to hit a home run

Matt Olson has yet to hit a home run off of Suarez, but he has been successful in their battles. He has faced him 17 times at the plate, and he is hitting .294 against him. Olson finished the regular season with the most home runs in the majors, and he has registered at least one hit in each of the three games so far, which means he isn’t completely whiffing at the plate.

Olson also hits every pitch Suarez tosses pretty well, with the exception of the curveball. Last year when the two matched up in the postseason, Olson registered a hit and a walk in three at bats. Given the number of times the two have faced each, we like the MLB home run leader to find his rhythm and hit one out of the park tonight.

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