The Buffalo Bills take on the Washington Commanders in NFL Week 3 action. Why are the Bills a touchdown favorite over the Commanders?
Bills vs. Commanders betting odds, props, picks
Bills star quarterback Josh Allen, who has had the most turnovers in the league the past five years, will be looking to play a clean game for the second straight week without an interception or fumble when the Bills visit the undefeated Washington Commanders on Sunday. He hasn't had two such games in succession since 2019.
In Week 1, Allen was a gloomy Gus after his four-turnover performance in a season-opening 22-16 overtime loss to the New York Jets. But he had an almost flawless performance last Sunday (3 TD passes, 31-for-37, 274 yards) as the Bills put away visiting Las Vegas 38-10. And they did so in short order in a season-low 2 hours, 49 minutes.
The game wasn't as close as the score might indicate. Buffalo had a plus-3 turnover edge, held defending rushing champ Josh Jacobs to minus-2 yards on nine carries, and ran 35 more plays than the Raiders, holding them to 39 snaps; that's the fewest plays for any team in the league since Miami had 39 in Week 3 last season at home vs. the Bills. Buffalo had a 51-play edge in that game but still lost 21-19.
Washington, meanwhile, continues to win behind a stout defensive line and second-year QB Sam Howell, who directed a comeback from a 21-3 deficit at Denver last week to win 35-33.
Thus, the Commanders are the only team this season that hasn't lost a game during exhibition play or in Weeks 1 or 2 of the regular season.
Bills vs. Commanders Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total & Division Futures
The Bills were listed as 6.5-point favorites at midweek, a jump from the 5.5 number posted by the Westgate SuperBook in May. On the moneyline, the Bills were listed at -275 and the Commanders at +250.
Sunday's game marks the 21st straight time Buffalo has been a favorite, going 9-10-1 ATS its previous 20 and 15-5 straight-up. As for Washington, it has gone 9-9-1 SU/ATS the past two seasons.
And since Washington's Ron Rivera took over as coach in 2020, the Commanders have been 7-6-2 ATS as a home dog, including a stunning 26-6 win over Dallas in the 2022 season finale with the Cowboys a 7.5-point choice. That was Howell's debut as a starter.
As for the over/under total (44 to 44.5), Washington was the only team with a number under 40 in Games 1 and 2. In last week's outing in Denver, the Commanders helped blow past 39.5 total in a 35-33 victory that wasn't decided until after time expired when the Broncos' Russell Wilson threw incomplete on a 2-point conversion try.
Buffalo, the preseason choice to win the AFC East, is currently the second choice at +140 behind Miami (2-0). Washington just vaulted past the NY Giants to third place on the NFC East futures boards at +1800.
Bills vs. Commanders Betting Trends
Buffalo has won eight of the past nine games in the series dating to 1993 -- the last time the Bills appeared in a Super Bowl. The most recent meeting occurred in Buffalo in 2021, a 43-21 Bills victory as a 7.5-point choice with Allen throwing four TD passes without an INT.
Washington's upset victory Sunday in Denver as a 4-point dog was one of five games last week in which an underdog won straight-up. Underdogs have a 13-19 (.406) SU mark this season, but they are 19-11-2 (.633) against the spread.
Bills vs. Commanders Injury Report
The most serious injury for either team in last week's play occurred when Washington tight end Logan Thomas was the victim of an illegal hit from Denver DB Kareem Jackson after catching a TD pass in the end zone. Jackson was called for unsportsmanlike conduct on the play and ejected.
Thomas was dealing with a concussion at midweek.
And, of course, standout DL Chase Young returned to the lineup last week after missing 23 of the previous 26 games. Late in the 2021 season, he ruptured his patellar tendon and tore his ACL. And he missed this season's opener with a neck ailment. He had 1.5 sacks in Denver on Sunday.
The biggest injury news to come out of Buffalo's win over Vegas was the ankle issue for Leonard Floyd. He is listed as day-to-day.
Safety Micah Hyde also is day-to-day with a hamstring ailment.
Bills vs. Commanders Props
Here are some other interesting ways to bet on Sunday afternoon's game:
Halftime Moneyline/Full-Time Moneyline Winners (FanDuel)
- Bills/Bills: -140
- Bills/Commanders: +1100
- Bills/Tie: +4000
- Commanders/Commanders: +380
- Commanders/Bills: +650
- Commanders/Tie: +420
- Tie/Bills: +1600
- Tie/Commanders: +2800
- Tie/Tie: +10000
Alternate Points Spread (DraftKings)
Bills -20.5: +418
Commanders +20.5: -670
Bills -17.5: +314
Commanders +17.5: -462
Bills -14.5: +232
Commanders +14.5: -322
Bills -10.5: +151
Commanders +10.5: -199
Bills -4.5: -153
Commanders +4.5: +118
Bills -1.5: -268
Commanders +1.5: +198
Bills +1.5: -348
Commanders -1.5: +248
Bills +5.5: -730
Commanders -5.5: +444
Individual Passing (FanDuel)
Bills' Allen over 258.5 yards: -114
Bills' Allen under 258.5 yards: -114
Commanders' Howell over 229.5 yards: 114
Commanders' Howell under 229.5 yards: -114
Bills vs. Commanders Analysis & Picks
It appears Washington in taking a step up in class after beating Arizona in its home opener 20-16, but not covering the 7-point spread, and then coming from way back to beat a Denver team that has gone 5-14 since ex-Seattle standout Russell Wilson arrived last season.
The Commanders' offense will be going against a Buffalo defense that has held its first two foes to 13 first downs apiece and a total of two touchdowns. Buffalo's offense, meanwhile, was as good as any last week when it had a seven-possession stretch in which it had five TDs and a FG. In the Bills' other drive it stalled on downs at Vegas' 3-yard line.
Washington's defense has also been stout with 10 sacks, which ties Dallas for the league lead. Seven came last week in Denver on only 39 Broncos drop-backs. Edge rusher Montez Sweat has led the way with three sacks and two forced fumbles. Thus, Allen must have his head on a swivel to avoid strip sacks.
Buffalo has had only three sacks, but that total could rise when chasing down Howell, who's gone down 10 times, tied for second in the league.
In summary, what will set the Bills apart on Sunday will be the running game.
Although Buffalo allowed the Jets 172 ground yards in Week 1, it was a different story last week when Raiders RBs had only 20 yards on 13 carries. Washington's top RBs, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, have a mediocre norm of 3.9.
The Bills' top running back, James Cook, has been much more productive, averaging 5.8 yards a carry on 29 attempts for 169 yards. And Allen is a force in the ground game, too.
Picks: Bills minus the points and the over
How to Watch Bills vs. Commanders
Date: Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023
Kickoff: 1 p.m. EDT
Location: FedExField — Landover, MD
Where to Watch: CBS
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