LAS VEGAS — Professional bettor Ron Boyles had bet on Michigan giving slim points to Alabama in the Rose Bowl and, he said, “I kinda got lucky to win that.”
Indeed, the Wolverines trailed Alabama by a touchdown late, forced overtime and won, 27-20. In the Sugar Bowl, Washington held off Texas to win, 37-31. All four semifinal squads were sloppy late.
For tonight’s national-title game in Houston, Michigan (14-0, 8-5-1 ATS) was favored over Washington (14-0, 7-6-1) by 4 to 5.5 points, with 56- and 56.5-point totals, in Vegas shops late last week.
Sunday morning, 4s and 4.5s, and 56.5s and 57s, were the norm. Circa, however, offered a 5.5-point spread. Early Monday morning, 4.5s ruled Vegas, save for the 5s at Circa, South Point and the Westgate SuperBook.
Per live betting lines at top sports betting sites, Michigan is available for . Washington at . Moneyline bettors can get the Wolverines at and the Huskies at , and the total is .
Pro bettor's CFP national title view: Michigan loaded with pros
Boyles, nicknamed “Skinny” decades ago at the Mirage by then-director and legendary Vegas oddsman Jimmy Vaccaro, hasn’t pressed his luck with a wager but still sports a strong opinion.
“Michigan is loaded with professionals,” he said from his home in Chester, WV. “There are probably 15 pros on that team. At Washington, the quarterback and two, maybe three receivers will be in the NFL.
“I think the coaching edge is slightly with Washington. I like [Kalen] DeBoer a lot, even though the end of the Texas game was just brutal.”
He saw the two teams as being very close. One computer ranking, however, lists Michigan at No. 2, Washington at No. 11.
“Michigan probably has the better defense, Washington the better offense. I would probably take the points with Washington. DeBoer as an underdog is unbelievable. His record as a dog is tremendous.”
DeBoer entered this season with a 3-1 record as an underdog. The Huskies were 1-point dogs when they beat Oregon State, 22-20, on Nov. 18.
On Dec. 1 and Jan. 1, respectively, UW got 10 points against Oregon but didn’t need them in a 34-31 victory and received 3 points against the Longhorns, and didn’t require them, in the Sugar Bowl.
Michigan boss Jim Harbaugh entered this season with a lifetime underdog record of 17-19, but the Wolverines have not been a dog once in ’23-24. As a favorite, he’s 61-50-2 in his collegiate career.
Read more: Washington vs. Michigan odds, props, predictions
CFP national title betting 'almost like a Super Bowl pattern'
Here are the latest college football betting odds at online sportsbooks for the CFP National Championship:
At BetMGM, director of trading Lamarr Mitchell reported that Washington point-spread tickets outnumbered those on Michigan by a 2-to-1 count, and UW moneyline ducats had a 3-1 edge.
Plus, the money favored the Huskies by a 5-1 edge at the book’s eight Strip properties.
“The house,” Mitchell wrote in a text message from BetMGM’s headquarters inside Mandalay Bay, “needs Michigan.”
Sunday, he said those tickets remained on UW at that 2-1 rate, that that money had balanced out and that Washington ML had a 4-1 edge on Michigan’s.
Several miles south on Las Vegas Boulevard, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews revealed early action on the Washington moneyline but mostly Michigan coin.
“It’s been really good. Strong. They’re mostly laying the price with the point spread and taking the moneyline on the dog. It’s almost like a Super Bowl pattern. That’s what they do in the Super Bowl.”
Told that the wave was going the other way, on the Huskies taking the points, up the street, Andrews grinned.
“Not here, yet,” he laughed. “Not yet.”
Related: Top college football betting sites | Best college football betting promos and bonuses
Big player prop menu for Washington vs. Michigan
At the tip of Long Island, pro punter Tom Barton had resigned himself to watching the game for fun. Concerned about the status of Huskies tailback Dillon Johnson (right leg), Barton has risked a token amount on Washington.
However, weekend reports on Johnson playing tonight were positive, even though he confirmed he would not be “100 percent.” Barton eyeballed the odds closely, hoping to see a 5.5 eke to 6. He never saw a 6.
It’s been reported that his right-wheel issue has hampered Johnson on and off this season, which has been superb. The former Mississippi State runner totaled 1,162 rushing yards this season for the Huskies, with 16 touchdowns.
He tallied 256 and four, respectively, in a victory at USC. And in his past three games, Johnson has 283 yards and five TDs.
DraftKings did not list a rushing-yards prop on him, but it did list Johnson at 35-1 to win offensive MVP honors. He’s (risk $100 to win $800) to score the game’s first TD, (bet $120 to win $100) to score anytime and +450 to score at least twice.
Michigan QB JJ McCarthy (+125) topped the MVP chart, then his Huskies counterpart Michael Penix Jr (+200), Wolverines tailback Blake Corum (+400, and my choice) and UM receiver Roman Wilson (15-1).
Corum is to score the first touchdown, to tally a TD anytime. The 5-foot-8, 213-pound Virginian has registered at least one TD in every Michigan game, and he has 13 (which includes one through the air) in his past six games.
More: CFP National Championship TD scorer prop picks | Michael Penix passing props | Blake Corum props | JJ McCarthy props
Washington was national champion longshot before season
Exactly one year ago, the Westgate SuperBook opened its futures title odds with Washington at 100-to-1. Those with such tickets are in a sweet hedging spot. Four months later, punters cut that to 40-1.
The SuperBook opened Michigan at 7-1, which was 8-1 four months later.
A year ago, William Hill opened Michigan 12-1, whittled to 8-1 by mid-July, when its 50-1 Washington opener had been cut to 40-1. From late May to late August at the South Point, Michigan remained 8-1, Washington was sliced 40-1 to 30-1.
At Circa Sports, the Wolverines were 9-1 right before the season began, the Huskies were 45-1.
Next year: Futures odds to win 2024-25 CFP national championship
Is the total the better play in CFP national title game?
In Vegas, professional punter Chuck Edel played UNDER 56.
“I expect Michigan, with its big offensive line, to pound the ball,” he said. “Neither team plays fast. Michigan averages 61 plays a game, Washington 65. Both are below average.”
In other notables, Washington ranked eighth in the country this season averaging 9.4 yards per throw. Michigan’s defense, however, finished fifth in the nation by yielding a paltry 5.8 yards per pass attempt.
The Huskies completed 66.6% of their throws, No. 17 in the game. And the Wolverines allowed foes to complete just 55.7% of their attempts, 11th best in the country. The former averages 350 passing yards, the latter allows 150.
The UW passing attack against Michigan’s defense will likely be the tale of this tape. The Wolverines have allowed just seven TD passes and have racked up 16 interceptions.
In fact, Michigan leads the nation (with Penn State) with a turnover margin per game of +1.2, and the Huskies are a middle-of-the-road +0.1.
That, we say, will be the difference, plus that stout Michigan O-line opening big holes for Corum (101.5 rushing yards prop at DK, -115 either way) and giving McCarthy ample time to pick apart the Washington secondary when he goes to the air.
Like Boyles, however, I’m not betting it. In both semifinals, I teased both dogs up and gladly cashed that ticket, fortunate to make a few bucks to cap what proved to be a rough college-football prognostication campaign.
CFP national title game betting line movement fairly insignificant
Friday afternoon, Vegas sportsbooks favored Michigan by 4, 4.5, 5 and 5.5 points. Quite a disparity, upon first glance. But not to a seasoned professional.
“Four and a half and 5.5 are kind of the same thing,” Boyles said. “Now the difference between 2.5 and 3.5 is huge. Three and a half and 4.5? Huge. But 4.5 and 5.5 really doesn’t mean much.
“A game goes 5.5 to 4.5, means nothing; 3.5 to 2.5 means everything, which is why you rarely see that. They’ll just move the money, to -120” on the side getting the action, the 3.5 or 2.5, rather than move it to 3.
(The house aims to keep the 3 for itself, a winner instead of a push.)
In teasing, it’s a main rule to never cross zero, since it’s a dead number and represents negative value.
“But a pro will tease a 2.5-point underdog to 8.5, or an 8.5-point favorite down to 2.5, through the key numbers,” Boyles said of 3, 4, 6 and 7. “That’s the pro teaser.”
More action: CFP National Championship Game SGPs
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Learn more >