The red-hot Bills host the reeling Dolphins this weekend at Orchard Park, in a battle that will pit poor Skylar Thompson against MVP candidate Josh Allen. Sportsbooks don't hold out too much hope for the 'fins — they currently have Miami listed as a 13.5-point underdog (and counting). We won't touch a 13-point spread with a 13-foot pole, but we will certainly discuss our favorite prop bets for this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook.
With fun and value in mind — like always — we browsed through the dozens of prop offerings on DK and pinpointed the ones we think give us the best chance at winning some cash. Here are the props we ultimately decided on, and why we think they represent solid value going into Sunday afternoon.
Dolphins-Bills Best Prop Bets: Advice, picks, odds for wild-card playoff
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Josh Allen 3+ passing TDs (+185)
Allen had another stellar regular season, no doubt an MVP candidate despite some issues with red-zone turnovers. He has thrown at least three TD passes in two of Buffalo's past three games, including a 304-yard, 4-TD day against Miami in Week 15. The Dolphins surrendered 27 passing TDs this season, seventh-most in the NFL, and Skylar Thompson will likely have trouble keeping an exhausted Miami defense off the field. In Allen's two postseason games last year, he finished with five TDs (against New England) and four TDs (at Kansas City). He should log at least three this weekend in Orchard Park.
MORE DOLPHINS-BILLS:
Betting preview | DK lineup | FD lineup
Devin Singletary UNDER 46.5 rushing yards (-135)
Most people won't touch this prop, but I'll be all over it this weekend. Singletary is not your typical RB1 — he quite often becomes an afterthought in Ken Dorsey's offensive system, one of the reasons we're also betting on Allen passing for three TDs. We don't mind Singletary as a PPR commodity in DFS (at the right price), but we won't soon be banking on him to explode on the ground. Miami allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season, and Singletary finished with 49 or fewer ground yards 10 different times this season. The UNDER may be unexciting, but who cares if it makes us some dough?
Tyreek Hill OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Hill has been nursing a bit of an ankle issue, but that wasn't the only problem the speedster had last weekend. He also had to contend with a Jets secondary that has become one of the more feared defensive fronts in the NFL — and he did it with Skylar Thompson in charge of his targets. While Buffalo's D is no picnic, things should go a little smoother for Cheetah this weekend. The Bills allowed 160.8 receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position this season, and Hill recored 69 air yards when these teams last faced off four weeks ago. We're betting he bests 64 yards for the 14th time since the first week of the season.
Dolphins to lose a fumble (+110)
It seems random, but I'm all over this for the plus odds. Thompson has been gross under center, clearly not confident (or even comfortable). He looks jumpy under pressure, and his body language when Miami starts to trail seems like a giant red flag. The Dolphins have endured four scoreless quarters over the past three weeks, so here's betting Thompson and company force something and cough the ball up at some point throughout the game while trying to catch up. Buffalo is tied for third in the NFL in forced fumbles and ranks among the top 10 in fumble recoveries.
Bills OVER 3.5 total TDs (+115)
In my game preview, I picked the Bills to win 34-16 — so yeah, I have Buffalo finishing with over three TDs. McDermott's squad seems to be playing with the added inspiration since Damar Hamlin's injury, and a home game against one of the worst passing defenses should equal positive results. It's also a distinct possibility we see a pick-6 or scoop-and-score, as Thompson is not ready for prime time, never mind the playoffs. Oh, and let's not forget about Nyheim Hines' two kickoff returns for TDs last week against a usually-stout Patriots special teams.
Cole Beasley anytime TD scorer (+600)
This is our home-run prop of the weekend, as the Dolphins have been burned by slot receivers at various points this season and Beasley has slowly ramped himself back into Sean McDermott's system. We fully recognize that he has only received one target in each of his first two games back with the Bills, but just imagine winning $96 on a $12 wager! It's a feel-good storyline I just have a sneaking suspicion will come to fruition, so let's buy that lottery ticket!
