After the sportsbooks had their way last week, did the public pick enough winners to get back at the books this weekend?
Each week, we'll discuss the weekend that was with Phill Gray, head of trading for Sports Interaction, and break down the most notable results of the weekend and whether they went in favor of the house or the bettors.
Week 10 NFL Betting Action Report
Biggest wins the book
The betting public's Week 10 got off to a rocky start after 75 percent of the action (both tickets and money), backed the short road favorite Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) against the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. Unfortunately, Atlanta never led in the game and got gashed by Carolina's run game, surrendering 232 total rushing yards.
Things didn't get better in Sunday morning's Germany game, as Tampa Bay's 21-16 win over the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks was the biggest win in the NFL for Sports Interaction. Eighty percent of moneyline play came in on the underdog Seahawks, closing at +118. A Buccaneers' offense that ranked toward the bottom of the NFL in rushing efficiency had their way against the Seahawks, as rookie RB Rachaad White's big day (22 carries, 105 yards) helped give Tampa their second-straight victory.
The other big win for the book was the 49ers' 22-16 win over the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. According to Gray, the 49ers "opened at -3.5 midweek, moving to -7 and closing -8. The Chargers were a leg in many losing parlays involving 'dogs. Small loss on the spread, but made it back and more on single moneyline bets. LA opened +340 and closed +290."
The book had a chance to win even more on the 49ers -8 despite San Francisco falling down 13-3 in the first half. With the Chargers down 16-13 in the final minutes, Los Angeles failed to convert on a fourth-and-three in their own territory, giving the 49ers first a goal from LA's eight-yard line with 1:17 remaining. San Francisco couldn't punch it in to notch the front door cover, opting for a field goal to extend the lead to six points. A big sigh of relief for Chargers +8 backers.
Biggest wins for the betting public
The wildest game of the 2022 NFL season went the way of the public as the Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) improved to 8-1 on the season with a 33-30 overtime win over the Bills.
THE VIKINGS SCORED A TD ON DEFENSE
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WHAT IS THIS GAME
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According to Gray, "the merry-go-round of line moves around Josh Allen’s status continued all week and right up until kickoff. Buffalo opened -9.5, was down to -3 at one point, and finally closed at -6.5. We would have needed the Bills to cover -9.5 to cancel out all the middling that occurred. A Vikings three-point win was the worst-case scenario, as we ended up paying a lot on both sides."
Buffalo was in control throughout and had the chance to notch a double-digit win, but a costly Josh Allen red-zone interception when Buffalo led 27-17 in the fourth quarter gave the Vikings life. After a massive goal-line stand by the Bills' defense, Buffalo seemed to have survived, but that was only a tiny portion of the madness that was the fourth quarter and overtime.
Sports Interaction's second-biggest loss of the day in the NFL resulted from Pittsburgh's 20-10 win over New Orleans. The Saints opened up as 2.5-point road favorites, but sharp money pushed the line in favor of the Steelers, who ended up closing as favorites.
Upset on Monday Night Football?
In tonight's Eagles-Commanders game, the public is fading the undefeated Eagles (-11), hoping Taylor Heinicke can improve to 4-0 against the spread in starts this season.
Even with public support for the 'dog, large liability racked up on parlays that need the Eagles' moneyline to cash. Sports Interaction is a Commanders fan tonight, wanting an upset win to blemish the Eagles' undefeated record.
UFC 281 Betting Action Report
Pereira's KO goes the way of the public
Saturday night's UFC 281 main event resulted in a roller coaster finish, with Alex Pereira (+170) knocking out Israel Adesanya in the fifth round. Adesanya controlled the fight through the first four rounds and was a hefty live favorite entering the final round, but Pereira showcased his knockout power when it mattered most.
According to Gray, "Pereira was involved in multiple parlays that hit, resulting in a major loss on the main event of the card."
The book did win big on Dustin Poirier's third-round submission over Michael Chandler (+145), as Chandler garnered overwhelming public support that led to a decent overall hold on the event for Sports Interaction.
Will the public fare better during UFC 282 in a few weeks?
