Baylor vs. Duke odds, props, predictions: Bears, Devils seek momentum-shifting win at MSG

Both Baylor and Duke enter their matchup Wednesday looking to ride a victory over the other into a successful 2024. 

It's the biggest remaining nonconference test for each, and whatever transpires in Madison Square Garden will follow these programs into the new year.

Baylor (9-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) is ranked higher than Duke (7-3, 5-5) in the polls, and more importantly in the NET rankings, coming in 16th to the Blue Devils' current standing of 25th. But as far as Baylor vs. Duke odds are concerned, the Bears are a slight underdog. 

The Bears have wins over Florida, Auburn and Seton Hall, all teams that have a great shot of emerging in the NCAA bracket come March. The Blue Devils’ best win comes against a Michigan State team that just handed Baylor its only loss in blowout fashion, winning 88-64 in Detroit on Saturday afternoon. 

The Blue Devils have arguably been tested more, having lost to heavyweights like Arizona and Arkansas while also falling in its ACC opener against Damon Stoudamire’s Georgia Tech team, which appears to be far better and deeper than expected. Beyond the win over Sparty, Duke has blown out decent teams La Salle, Charlotte, and Hofstra, all in Durham.

Whichever team prevails instantly picks up a valuable Quad 1 win that will mean a lot on Selection Sunday. So, even though there are other attractive matchups on Wednesday night’s college basketball slate, none will wind up being more impactful than the one going off at the world’s most famous arena. 

The programs have met only once, squaring off in the 2010 NCAA South Regional final. The Blue Devils, led by Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and current head coach Jon Scheyer, prevailed en route to ultimately winning the national championship.

Baylor vs. Duke odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest college basketball betting odds for the Bears vs. Blue Devils:

Baylor betting news: Bears seek bounce-back after 'embarrassing' loss

Scott Drew’s team went 6-4 after losses last season, so we’ll see how this new group battles back. The Bears head coach didn’t mince words in calling out his team’s effort in Detroit, particularly since Michigan State led 45-17 at the break. Baylor allowed the Spartans to shoot over 63 percent from the field, committed 21 turnovers and was outrebounded 29-20, so very little went right in its first setback. 

There certainly was a built-in excuse as the Bears hadn’t played in 11 days due to finals prior to taking the floor at Little Caesars Arena, in front of a crowd that was anything but neutral. Drew regrets not scheduling another opponent prior to the showdown with Michigan State to help clear out some of the rust, but now turns the page hoping that being humbled will help contribute to his team’s fire as it prepares for another massive challenge.

Drew is hoping his team will play a cleaner game since turnovers allowed the Spartans to find a rhythm quickly against his Bears, who have physically stepped up against some solid teams and excel on the offensive glass.

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Big man Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchachoua didn’t play against Michigan State and hasn’t played a major role this season, but transfer Jalen Bridges (West Virginia) has teamed with 6-foot-10 young players Yves Missi and Josh Ojianwuna to help hold things down in the post. Another huge challenge awaits against Duke in New York City.

Keyonte George is playing in the NBA, LJ Cryer transferred to Houston and Adam Flagler graduated, so this season’s backcourt is new but extremely talented. Like George, Ja’Kobe Walter is set to be a one-and-done.

Point guard RayJ Dennis (Toledo) and wing Jayden Nunn (VCU) are known commodities in the college game now getting a chance to shine on the biggest stages. The duo combined for a dozen turnovers in Detroit, so how they rebound from a sloppy effort will play a large role in both this game, and how Baylor’s season unfolds.

Duke betting news: Devils look to 'Cameron North' to get back on track outside of Durham

The Blue Devils beat Michigan State in Chicago on Nov. 14, but haven’t won away from Cameron Indoor Stadium since that conquest. Sure, they’ve only played outside of Durham twice, losing true road games at Arkansas and Georgia Tech, but this will be the final chance for Scheyer's team to get on track before ACC play resumes in 2024.

Duke often refers to Madison Square Garden as “Cameron North” due to the support it receives in NYC, and it should have more vocal support in the building than Baylor. We’ll see if it can make the most of that edge as it looks to improve to 2-1 against ranked opponents.

One thing worth watching is how the Blue Devils play in the first half. Dating back to their Nov. 24 contest against lowly Southern Indiana, Duke has largely struggled early, losing the first 20 minutes outright in three of its games and only dominating once. 

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Star center Kyle Filipowski bounced back from a 2-for-10 effort in a 24-point win over Charlotte by producing season-highs with 28 points and eight assists, adding 12 rebounds and three blocks in a blowout of Hofstra. Freshman guard Tyrese Proctor, a projected one-and-done, is questionable with an ankle injury that has kept him out the past few games.  

If Proctor can’t play, senior leader Jeremy Roach will continue to exclusively run the show as the lead guard, although playing through Filipowski will remain a key strategy. Freshmen Jared McCain and Caleb Foster hope to continue a solid run since both have been inconsistent but have performed well over Duke’s current winning streak, shooting a combined 18-for-31 from the field. 

Baylor vs. Duke prop picks

The Blue Devils want to play fast to avoid getting bogged down, which makes sense since they’re 6-0 when scoring at least 80 points. Look for Baylor to try and keep Filipowski from finding a rhythm since stopping him is the focal point of its gameplan, but making him a passer should allow Duke’s freshmen to get comfortable.

McCain has scored in double-figures for the first time as a college player and should do so a third consecutive time. Ride the over on his points total of 9.5 (-125), available at FanDuel.  

The best freshman on the floor, even if Proctor plays, will be Baylor’s Walter. Look for the likely lottery pick to thrive at the Garden and ride the over on his scoring total, too (12.5, -104).

Baylor vs. Duke prediction ATS

Even though a lengthy layoff did contribute to Baylor’s meltdown against Michigan State, this isn’t a great bounce-back spot for Drew’s team. The crowd will be in Duke’s corner and the Blue Devils have looked sharp all month despite the loss to the Yellow Jackets.

Filipowski will be a tough matchup for Missi, and I think we’ll see McCain take another step forward as someone quickly blossoming into a pro prospect given his frame and game. Lay the points.

Pick: Duke