Alabama vs. Auburn odds, props, predictions: Tide have CFP hopes, while Tigers are reeling heading into Iron Bowl

After surviving the feared Chattanooga Mocs of the FCS, Alabama has put itself in position to potentially crash the College Football Playoff.

With its ninth consecutive victory since an ugly home loss to Texas that had many writing Nick Saban and his team off for the season, 'Bama must get through the Iron Bowl before entering the SEC Championship game against Georgia with an opportunity to play its way into a top-four ranking in the eyes of the selection committee.

Alabama vs. Auburn odds and predictions require weighing how much the rivalry aspect of a pairing comes into play between teams coming into a game in such opposite directions. 

The Tigers are down bad entering this showdown with their hated in-state rival. Maybe Auburn was caught looking ahead despite all of first-year head coach Hugh Freeze’s warnings, or maybe they’re just that flawed, but New Mexico State went into Jordan-Hare Stadium, collecting a check for a reported $1.85 million for doing so, and trounced its host.

The Aggies, who will play in the Conference USA Championship game, rolled 31-10, keeping Auburn from guaranteeing itself a winning record for the first time since 2020. In order to do that prior to a bowl game, the Tigers must upset the Crimson Tide, which hasn’t happened since 2019.

The 88th Iron Bowl, the annual rivalry game that Alabama has won 11 out of the last 15 years will celebrate the 10-year anniversary of the legendary “Kick-Six.” The action goes off on Saturday at 3.:30 p.m. ET.

Alabama vs. Auburn odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Crimson Tide vs. Tigers:

Alabama betting news: Tide look for fourth straight Iron Bowl win

The Crimson Tide (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) have passed every test since losing 34-24 to Texas in front of a dejected sellout crowd in their second game of the season.

Some games didn’t go as smoothly as others, but the team that defeated Chattanooga 66-10 last weekend was lethal in ways that the one which limped to a 17-3 victory at South Florida to start their road to recovery, was not.

This will be Alabama QB's Milroe’s first Iron Bowl. It comes at Jordan-Hare, where the Crimson Tide are just 2-3 since 2013 and 6-10 since these games were switched from the neutral site of Birmingham onto campus sites back in 1993. Milroe has been sharp outside Tuscaloosa, sporting a slightly higher QB rating and completing 68.7 percent of his passes in wins at Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Kentucky.

Saban is 11-5 against Auburn, losing his first Iron Bowl in 2007 at Jordan-Hare, where he’s just 4-4. Given all of his team’s personnel losses and how sloppy they looked earlier this season, this is one of the 72-year-old’s best coaching jobs in Tuscaloosa.

Even though the Crimson Tide are eighth in the CFP rankings entering November’s final weekend, the opportunity to upset No. 1 Georgia and the likelihood it would leapfrog losers of this weekend’s Ohio State-Michigan game and the Pac-12 Championship, put it squarely in the national title picture. Style points won’t come into play this weekend at Auburn, although dominating their arch rival certainly wouldn’t hurt.

Since flirting with disaster at home in surviving Arkansas on Oct. 14, and an awful first half against Tennessee, Alabama has outscored opponents 184-59. It rallied to beat the Vols, tamed LSU, and routed Kentucky in Lexington.

Entering this Auburn clash, the Tide are relatively healthy, and their seniors are looking to become the first class to go 4-0 against Auburn in over four decades. Although Saban has won the Iron Bowl three consecutive times twice, this would be the first time either program would notch four straight victories in this rivalry game since Paul “Bear” Bryant guided Alabama to conquests from 1973-81.

Related: Top college football betting sites | Best college football betting promos and bonuses

Auburn betting news: Tigers limping into rivalry clash

There’s no way to sugarcoat how poorly the Tigers played at home last Saturday night. New Mexico State is having its best season since the 1960s, but had no business coming into SEC country and thoroughly dominating.

Freeze didn’t like his team’s mindset going into the game and told reporters that everyone seemed to be “in a fog” in the aftermath, which isn’t a great place to be entering the biggest game of the season. 

Auburn (6-5, 5-6) was outgained 414-213 by NMSU, amassing just 65 rushing yards on 26 attempts in a listless performance. The Tigers never led, held the ball for just over 21 of the game’s 60 minutes and managed just 11 first downs. Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne, who has emerged as Auburn’s full-time starting QB, was also the team’s leading rusher. 

In Freeze, the Tigers do employ the last man to defeat Saban in back-to-back meetings. He accomplished that in 2014-15 while at Ole Miss, with quarterbacks Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly at the controls. While neither of those guys went onto wildly successful pro careers, they were competent, veteran SEC quarterbacks. Currently, Auburn lacks that ingredient, which is another reason it is a double-digit home underdog. 

Thorne has been serviceable, getting Auburn back to a bowl game after one-year absence, but he went through a four-game stretch of SEC losses in which he didn’t throw for more than 102 yards. Sure, he split time with Robby Ashford, Auburn’s dual threat QB, in a couple of those setbacks, but it’s a fact that the Tigers’ offense has lacked teeth with him at the controls.

In 10 games against FBS competition, Thorne has passed for over 200 yards only once, so envisioning he’ll carve up the Alabama secondary seems far-fetched. Thorne has thrown nine touchdown passes and been intercepted only twice over the past four games, but the expectation is that he’ll face stiff competition from whoever the Tigers land via the transfer portal once the season ends as he looks to keep this job next season.

More rivalry week betting previews: Arizona vs. Arizona State odds | Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds | Oregon State vs. Oregon odds | Washington State vs. Washington odds

Alabama vs. Auburn prop picks

• Alabama QB Jalen Milroe anytime TD scorer  (-115) 
• Auburn QB Payton Thorne OVER 154.5 passing yards (-115)

Milroe was tentative in running the football earlier this season, not capitalizing on one of his greatest strengths. He’s now up to 12 rushing TDs on the season, having scored seven in a two-game stretch in the Tide’s last two SEC wins over LSU and Kentucky. Look for him to call his own number in finding the end zone at least once.

Thorne should get the bulk of the work if and when the Crimson Tide put themselves in position to cover this spread by going up multiple scores, since playing keepaway via Alford would no longer be a sound strategy.

Freeze can’t afford to wave the white towel without a fight at home, especially after what happened last Saturday, so Thorne may set a new season-high in pass attempts, which is currently 32. Look for him to surpass 155 passing yards.

Alabama vs. Auburn prediction ATS

The Tigers are going to give Alabama a fight sooner than later, but they have a better chance of going into Tuscaloosa and winning next season than they do of hanging around in this one.

Believe the wounded animal cliche all you want, but there’s a reason New Mexico State was able to come into Auburn’s stadium and push it around, and it wasn’t entirely tied to looking ahead.

A major rebuild has been needed on the Plains since Gus Malzahn was let go, and success isn’t going to come overnight. Alabama should help hammer that point in by hammering the Tigers. 

Pick: Alabama