Air Force (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) has been so dynamic it seems to be chasing its own history as much as any opponent. The 1958 Falcons were the lone squad in program history that squeaked through an entire season unscathed, finishing 9-0-2 after a scoreless Cotton Bowl draw with TCU.
On Saturday, the Falcons will look to remain on that path when they take on fellow service academy Navy. We're taking a look at Air Force vs. Navy odds, props and predictions ahead of the matchup.
These 22nd-ranked Falcons are a fantastic paradox, since they run 91.46 percent of the time and average 327 ground yards, both tops in the country and not exactly reflective of a program with the nickname of a diurnal bird of prey.
They’ll run, run, then run some more. Navy will come close to copying its foe since the Midshipmen run 77.24 percent of the time, the second-most national penchant for carrying the ball. Air Force averages 60 runs a game, Navy 48. This will be rams battering horns for three hours.
Betting odds for Air Force vs. Navy opened in Vegas with Air Force as a 9-point favorite, and the total at 39.5 for the noon kickoff inside Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md. on Saturday. CBS will televise the game. After a few hours, the Falcons’ edge was budged up to 9.5, the total whittled to 37.5. By Monday afternoon, the spread had bled to Air Force , the total sliced to .
No. 22 Air Force vs. Navy odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest college football betting odds for Falcons vs. Midshipmen at top-rated sportsbooks:
Air Force has won the past three in this series, and covered six of the past nine games against Navy. The Falcons have only one home game remaining, against upstart UNLV, and finish the regular season at Boise State; Air Force is 3-0 SU and ATS in its past three league road finales, so a lot is in the Falcons’ favor.
The Falcons are also 26-6 since the start of 2021, with three consecutive bowl triumphs. In that span, Navy (3-3, 2-4) is 11-19. In the long and short terms, these two squads are residing at the opposite ends of the spectrums.
Air Force betting news: They run and run, but watch out for that pass
There was some preseason debate about who would best occupy the Air Force cockpit, manning the controls. Zac Larrier, though, has dispelled any doubt and been a force, not such a stretch considering he’s a former Mountain West 200-meter track champion. A 6-foot, 195-pound junior from Youngstown, Ohio, he’s been operating coach Troy Calhoun’s triple-option schemes like a surgeon. He’s the team’s No. 2 rusher (473 yards, 5.8-yard average, 4 TDs), behind Emmanuel Michel (497, 4.4, 8 TDs).
He went down with a knee injury in the fourth quarter of an eventual 34-27 victory at Wyoming last Saturday, and didn't return. It was announced Tuesday that he has been ruled out of Saturday's game.
Reserve Jensen Jones, a 6-2, 215-pound senior, has shifty legs, and teammates hail his cannon of a right arm.
Adding to the ground blitz is Owen Burk (3 TDs) and John Lee Eldridge III (4 TDs). Plus, Jones and Cade Harris have both tallied two scoring runs. As a whole, these ground Falcons average 5.4 yards per run, 13th in the nation. Navy yields 4.4 per run, which is in the bottom third of the country.
Air Force is poised to lead the nation in rushing for a fourth consecutive season, and its foundation is an offensive line rated among the country’s top 20 whose sum outshines any individual.
Navy betting news: Midshipmen lean on own run game in attempt to stay close
Something wicked, donning Air Force helmets, comes this way for Navy in Annapolis. In their past four games, the Falcons have tallied 1,387 ground yards and 18 TDs. Navy has yielded 206 rushing yards to North Texas, 191 to Notre Dame in that ugly affair in Ireland and 190 to Memphis.
The Middies try to keep it close to the ground, too, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. That’s in the top quarter of the country. However, the Falcons give up a mere 3 yards per carry, ninth-best in the college game. The stout Air Force defense is bolstered by senior safety Trey Taylor, whose 10 tackles (seven solo) and blocked PAT last week against Wyoming earned him Mountain West defensive player of the week.
Three Navy quarterbacks haven’t been very effective, combining for 80 throws and six TDs. But no passes have been intercepted. Quarterback Tai Lavatai, a 6-2, 220-pound senior, took a shot to the ribs last weekend in Charlotte and is questionable for the Falcons. Backup Blake Horvath has fumbled three times. Alex Tecza is the main ground force, averaging 8.1 yards on 62 runs, with four TDs. Navy’s deep threat is Eli Heidenreich, a 6-foot 200-pound sophomore who averages 39 yards on four catches.
Air Force vs. Navy prop odds
FanDuel is offering some markets beyond the spread, moneyline and total.
In a game between service academies under the NCAA's new clock rules, it's not surprising the total is under 40. But FanDuel has eight different options for bettors to select an alternate total, as well:
- 31.5 (over -245; under +186)
- 33.5 (over -180; under +144)
- 35.5 (over -142; under +116)
- 37.5 (over -104; under -118)
- 39.5 (over +118; under -146)
- 41.5 (over +156; under -196)
- 43.5 (over +196; under -260)
- 45.5 (over +255; under -350)
Air Force at Navy predictions ATS
Navy has an edge on Air Force in one area, as the Middies are fourth in the country in turnover margin, at +1.4 — senior linebacker Xavier McDonald is the main pest. That’s about the only way Navy stays close. However, Air Force, like Navy, is a top-10 squad in the country at averaging a meager 0.6 giveaways per game. The two models we prize both have the Falcons winning by 14 points.
Pick: Air Force
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