Betting on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds is fun. Betting on Defensive Rookie of the Year is too. It feels kind of somber, however, to wager on the Comeback Player of the Year because candidates for this award usually don’t find their way onto the odds board by being healthy the year before. Joe Flacco winning CPOY in 2023 is the exception to the rule.
Injuries are a huge part of football, though, and this futures prop bet presents another opportunity for bettors to make some green on the gridiron this season.
QBs have won the award the past five years in a row, and this streak will probably run to six come season’s end. Let’s take a look at 2024 NFL CPOY odds and the betting favorites to win the award.
Odds to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year
A quarterback is almost certainly going to win 2024 Comeback Player of the Year. The tricky part is predicting which one it will be. Here are live CPOY odds from top online sportsbooks:
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2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorites, predictions & sleepers
Here's a rundown of the top CPOY candidates and some predictions for how they'll fare this season:
Aaron Rodgers
There are a few things not to like about the favorite this year, sorry to be a downer. One is that the payout for this bet is borderline paltry. Another is that Rodgers will be 41 years old by the time the 2024 regular season concludes. The likelihood of a QB this old playing 17 games is not as high as it should be for a guy with odds this short. Lastly, even if Rodgers stays upright and guides the Jets to a playoff berth, he’s not going to be the same level of menace as he was as a Packer.
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow slogged through an injury-ridden 2023, starting with a nagging calf issue that plagued him out of training camp and ending before Thanksgiving due to tearing a ligament in his right wrist in Baltimore. Although the Bengals signal-caller looks super weird with his hair dyed blonde, he also looks healthy going into 2024 (at least this far). Cincinnati is going to enjoy the relative ease of a schedule that resulted from its 2023 fourth-place finish in the AFC North, and Burrow has two mega-talented WRs eager to earn mega-raises in the near future. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins give Burrow quite the supporting cast to be in a good spot to contend for the award this season.
Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins’ tenure with the Vikings didn’t go the way anyone wanted, as his 2023 season ended with an Achilles injury in Week 8. Although he’s being held out of preseason games, Cousins is slated to start for Atlanta in Week 1. There figures to be a bit of rust when we get to that point, and his WR core of Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III isn’t a head turner. No one can figure out why Kyle Pitts isn’t more impactful as a TE since he’s very tall and very fast, and for years the Falcons offense has been difficult to understand. It’s hard to bet on Cousins to win this award when you can imagine lots of low-scoring divisional games vs. the Saints, Bucs and Panthers.
Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson is the kind of QB that is a blast to use while playing Madden, because he has a big arm and is a threat as a runner, too. However, he made it only four games and change into the 2023 season before suffering a season-ending AC joint injury to his throwing shoulder. The sky is the limit for Richardson if he’s able to adapt his style of play at the NFL level and realize the hits he takes here are potentially more injurious than those from his collegiate career. Betting on scrambling QBs who take big hits is risky business.
Nick Chubb
NFL fans are happy just to see that Nick Chubb will be playing pigskin again. Watching the gruesome knee injury he suffered last season vs. the Steelers in Week 2 was not pleasant. Chubb rushed for 1,000 yards four years in a row before getting hurt last year, and when healthy he’s one of the best RBs in the league. I’m no knee doctor, but it’s hard to forecast Chubb’s role as the bell cow to remain the same after he tore his ACL and MCL last year. Factor in Jerome Ford’s emergence in the backfield, and it’s hard to gauge how much of a carry share Chubb will have this year.
Sam Darnold
Darnold makes a great dark horse pick to win the 2024 Comeback Player of the Year award, and the long odds make him worth considering taking a flyer on. Minnesota's first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy was going to breathe down Darnold’s neck to supplant him as QB 1, but the rookie's season-ending meniscus injury removes any sort of short leash. The Vikings know what they have with Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall, and Darnold is now undoubtedly the guy this year. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor give him a lot of talent to work with down the field, and Darnold is a worthy COPY sleeper.
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