Another week, another massive injury in the NFL. This time, it was star Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a broken collarbone in Week 6.
Rogers had an MVP-caliber start to the season. Now, there is serious doubt whether he will return to help the Packers make the playoffs. What kind of impact can the loss of Rogers, who was playing at an MVP level, have on a team?
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Let's take a look at the updated NFL playoff picture entering Week 7. Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Let’s look at how the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs have changed entering Week 7.
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.94 | 0 |
| New England Patriots | 0.93 | -0.04 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.88 | -0.04 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.86 | -0.08 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.86 | 0.21 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.78 | 0.4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.66 | -0.03 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.62 | 0.22 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.61 | -0.11 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.6 | -0.11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.58 | 0.18 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.55 | 0.12 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.4 | -0.06 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.39 | -0.02 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.36 | -0.06 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.26 | 0.02 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| Washington Redskins | 0.19 | -0.03 |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.17 | -0.09 |
| L.A. Rams | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.15 | -0.03 |
| Houston Texans | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.08 | -0.07 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.06 | -0.93 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| N.Y. Giants | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| L.A. Chargers | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| N.Y. Jets | 0.01 | 0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 |
NFL playoff odds changes
Biggest improvements to playoff chances entering Week 7:
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Minnesota Vikings (+40%): The win over Green Bay on Sunday, combined with the Packers' loss of Rodgers, propelled the Vikings to the top of the NFC North. That said, Minnesota isn't exactly the model of security at quarterback, either. Seemingly, though, Case Keenum can manage the offense well enough to produce results until Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater are fully healthy.
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Detroit Lions (+23%): Detroit is another team that will take advantage of Green Bay’s situation and likely nose dive. Earlier in the season, the Lions' chances for the playoffs were slim, but now they might have a chance to challenge Minnesota in the division.
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New Orleans Saints (+22%): After an 0-2 start, the Saints have won three in a row and are in the playoff mix in the NFC South. Their next game is against Green Bay; the line opened at Packers -6, but after Rodgers' injury, the line swung to Saints -4. New Orleans has a great chance to keep the winning streak alive.
MORE: NFL Power Rankings
Biggest drops in playoff chances entering Week 7:
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Green Bay Packers (-93%): It's very rare for one player to have such a significant impact on a team’s playoff projections, but Aaron Rodgers is a rare player. With Rodgers, the Packers were the safest bet to reach playoffs, but now their chances are slim. New QB Brett Hundley is a completely unknown commodity for simulations, but if he plays well, we can expect Green Bay’s playoff probability to bounce back in the coming weeks.
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Atlanta Falcons (-11%): The Falcons started 3-0 but have now lost two straight with a road trip to New England in Week 7. Even though they are still hanging on to a playoff spot, the Falcons need to stop the slide this week against the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch.
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Dallas Cowboys (-11%): A bye week can often have a notable impact to a team's long-term chances. All other teams won in the NFC East last week, so Dallas lost ground in Week 6. The next five weeks will show the direction of the 2-3 Cowboys; three or more wins and they can hang around for a playoff spot.
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.