The NFL playoff picture is getting clearer week by week. There are teams like the Patriots, Steelers, Vikings and Eagles racing towards first-round byes as the regular season winds down. All of those teams are just about sure bets to reach the postseason.
There are still division races and, of course, wild-card races still up in the air. Right now, the Rams are on top of the NFC West, but AccuScore predictions show that the Seahawks will edge out L.A. to take the division title, home-field advantage and a spot in the wild-card round.
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Meanwhile, Carolina and Kansas City are currently the last teams projected to make the playoffs. Even though both teams lost last week, both also hold their futures in their own hands.
Let's take a look at the updated NFL playoff picture entering Week 14. Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs and how they have changed.
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| New England | 0.99 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.99 | 0 |
| Philadelphia | 0.99 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 0.99 | 0.05 |
| Tennessee | 0.97 | 0.05 |
| New Orleans | 0.95 | 0.1 |
| Jacksonville | 0.89 | 0.16 |
| LA Rams | 0.88 | 0.17 |
| Baltimore | 0.86 | 0.15 |
| Seattle | 0.8 | 0.07 |
| Carolina | 0.68 | -0.1 |
| Kansas City | 0.65 | -0.16 |
| Atlanta | 0.52 | -0.21 |
| Oakland | 0.33 | 0.06 |
| LA Chargers | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| Buffalo | 0.12 | -0.16 |
| Dallas | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| Green Bay | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Detroit | 0.02 | -0.14 |
| Cincinnati | 0.01 | -0.07 |
| Houston | 0.01 | -0.04 |
| Miami | 0.01 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 0.01 | 0 |
| Washington | 0 | -0.03 |
| Arizona | 0 | -0.01 |
| Tampa Bay | 0 | -0.01 |
| Denver | 0 | 0 |
| Chicago | 0 | 0 |
| Indianapolis | 0 | 0 |
| NY Giants | 0 | 0 |
| San Francisco | 0 | 0 |
| Cleveland | 0 | 0 |
NFL playoff odds changes
Biggest improvements to playoff chances entering Week 14:
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L.A. Rams (+17%): The Rams have improved their playoff chances by double digits during the last two weeks. L.A. can win the division and controls its own fate when it comes to the divisional title. However, AccuScore predicts that Seattle will have a strong finish and win the NFC West.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+16%): Right now, it looks like the Titans will take the AFC South. Uneven performances from other AFC teams in the wild-card race and a win by the Jaguars improved Jacksonville’s chances to make the playoffs. It would require a complete meltdown for them to miss the playoffs.
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Baltimore Ravens (+15%): The Ravens are currently one game ahead in the wild-card race and sitting on the last playoff spot. However, they are facing Cleveland and Indianapolis before the end of the season, so those should be easy wins for them compared to some other contenders with tougher schedules.
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Biggest drops in playoff chances entering Week 14:
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Atlanta Falcons (-21%): The Falcons sit outside of the playoffs right now. It looks like they will stay outside based on AccuScore's simulations of the final four weeks. They face only NFC South teams during the final month, including scorching-hot New Orleans twice. That does, however, mean that Atlanta's postseason hopes are alive, and the Falcons control their own destiny.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-14%): The Chiefs' slide continues; they have lost six out of their last seven games. They are still on top of the AFC West, though, and simulations show that this will be the case by the end of the regular season. It doesn’t look like too much to ask, as their next three games are at home, and they finish against a lousy Denver team.
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Buffalo Bills (-16%): The Bills have playoff hopes -- if they can run the table. They face Miami twice, and the Dolphins are only one game behind them for a wild-card spot. One big question for Buffalo's hopes would be the health of QB Tyrod Taylor. If he cannot play, the postseason chances for the Bills would all but evaporate.
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.