The NFL playoff bracket is set, with the winners on wild-card weekend moving on to face the top-seeded teams in the divisional round.
AccuScore has made its 2017 NFL playoff picks by simulating each wild-card game 10,000 times to predict the probabilities of reaching the next round on the road to Super Bowl 52. Below are the probabilities to win each wild-card game this weekend.
MORE: SN's NFL playoff picks, predictions
NFL playoffs: Wild-card probabilities
Titans at Chiefs
Kansas City will host Tennessee in Saturday’s first game. AccuScore’s simulations predict that the Chiefs have a 75-percent win probability, the highest of all wild-card games. During the regular season, AccuScore predicted the correct winner in Chiefs games nine times, and in Titans games 11 times. DeMarco Murray's absence hurts the Titans' upset chances.
Falcons at Rams
Atlanta will travel to L.A. for the second wild-card game on Saturday, as the Rams host a playoff game in L.A. for the first time in 30 years. The Rams were one of the biggest surprises of the season with a sophomore QB and a rookie head coach both outperforming expectations. AccuScore predicts a tight game with the Rams having a 56-percent win probability. Both teams have had explosive offenses, but the playoffs have traditionally been low-scoring. It is probable that total points in this game won’t reach 50. However, the cagey playoff points trends didn't apply to the Falcons a year ago, when they ran up the score and nearly won the Super Bowl. The Falcons posted over 30 points in every postseason game a season ago, but that was a different offensive coordinator. During the 2017 regular season, AccuScore's straight-up picks were correct 10 times in Rams games, and nine times in Falcons games.
Bills at Jaguars
Sunday starts with a matchup between teams ending long playoff droughts. AFC South champ Jacksonville is a clear favorite in AccuScore simulations. The Jaguars have a 62-percent win probability over the Bills. This could even be a bit bigger if Bills RB LeSean McCoy can't recover from an ankle injury. The Buffalo Bills were one of the most difficult teams to predict during the regular season, with only seven games correctly picked by AccuScore; the track record for Jacksonville picks was eight correct games.
Panthers at Saints
The last wild-card game is the divisional matchup from the NFC South between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints. During the regular season, eight of Carolina’s games were predicted correctly by AccuScore, while the accuracy in the Saints games was better with 11 correct games. In the third meeting between the two, New Orleans has 61-percent win probability. The Saints don’t have any big injury concerns and have beat the Panthers twice already. In fact, when AccuScore simulated the entire NFL playoffs, the computer picked the Saints to make Super Bowl 52.
Super Bowl favorite
Currently, the New England Patriots have the highest probability to win the Super Bowl at 27 percent, and are AccuScore's pick to win the championship for the second year in a row.
. @AccuScore's 2018 NFL Bracket...every game played out 10,000 times & it's the Patriots repeating as champs according to our computer...Wild Card Picks>> https://t.co/CmGpb214gv #NFLpicks pic.twitter.com/3G81ghwLCU
— AccuScore (@AccuScore) January 4, 2018
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities and picks will be updated on a weekly basis.