There was a point when Russell Wilson appeared to be a on a Canton trajectory. He had won a Super Bowl with a pair of appearances, earned nine Pro Bowl selections, and was one of the better dual-threat QBs in the league.
That's why when the Broncos traded a massive package of players and picks for him and proceeded to make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, it certainly appeared he would be the game-changer for a stout roster. Sure, he was heading into his age-34 season, but plenty of highly talented quarterbacks continued playing at a high level at that age and beyond.
Well, that trade looks awful in retrospect and the contract only makes the whole situation worse. "Mr. Unlimited" was "Mr. Extremely Limited" in 2022 with the worst season of his career, throwing 16 touchdowns and 11 picks and a quarterback rating of 84.4, the lowest of his career. Since the start of the 2022 season, he ranks 19th in expected points added plus completion percentage above expectation (EPA+CPOE) among the 27 QBs with at least 500 plays.
He has shown slight improvement in 2023 with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions through his first five games and a quarterback rating of 106.1, but the team record of 1-4 shows he is still not the savior Denver hoped he would be when he arrived.
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Wilson's contract is an albatross, and Denver would certainly like to have a do-over on the deal if it had the choice. When can the Broncos get out of the deal? Here's what you need to know.
Russell Wilson contract
The Broncos sent two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick and three players for Wilson and a fourth-round pick in March 2022. Six months later, they inked him to a massive five-year, $245 million extension. It pushed the total commitment to seven years and $296 million.
Well, the Broncos are nearly through year two of those seven years, and the road out from under this massive deal does not look any clearer. At this point, there will be no cutting Wilson during the 2023 campaign. And no team is going to have interest in trading for him given his struggles into Year 2 with Denver.
The biggest concern moving forward with Wilson's contract is the dead money the Broncos will absorb if they cut him. Here's a look at the difference at cutting Wilson pre-June 1 and post-June 1, per Over the Cap.
| Year | Pre-June 1 cut dead money | Pre-June 1 cut savings | Post-June 1 cut dead money | Post-June 1 cut savings |
| 2024 | $85 million | -$49.6 million | $35.4 million | $0 |
| 2025 | $49.6 million | $5.8 million | $18.4 million | $37 million |
| 2026 | $31.2 million | $27.2 million | $18.4 million | $40 million |
| 2027 | $12.8 million | $40.6 million | $8.4 million | $45 million |
| 2028 | $4.4 million | $50 million | $4.4 million | $50 million |
It might be easy to look at the numbers and say that it's obvious the Broncos should just cut him after June 1 in the 2024 season. But because it would be a post-June 1 designation, the money would be spread across not just 2024, but also 2025. Any post-June 1 cut designations would spread the money between both the upcoming season and the following season (a post-June 1, 2025 cut would spread it out over 2025 and 2026, etc.).
The Broncos would have a net-zero in cap savings in 2024 because the dead money ($35.4 million) would equal what his 2024 salary would be, but Denver would still have $49.6 million in dead money in 2025, which would be only a net savings of $5.8 million.
Cutting Wilson before June 1 would mean the Broncos would absorb a massive amount of dead money in 2024, which would hamstring the roster for the season, though it would allow them to bite the bullet and move more quickly past the Wilson era.
The Broncos could also try to find a trade partner, though it's hard to imagine someone being willing to take on the contract of a struggling veteran quarterback. Here's his dead money and cap savings if he's dealt, per Over the Cap.
| Year | Pre-June 1 trade dead money | Pre-June 1 trade savings | Post-June 1 trade dead money | Post-June 1 trade savings |
| 2024 | $68 million | -$32.6 million | $18.4 million | $17 million |
| 2025 | $49.6 million | $5.8 million | $18.4 million | $37 million |
| 2026 | $31.2 million | $27.2 million | $18.4 million | $40 million |
| 2027 | $12.8 million | $40.6 million | $8.4 million | $45 million |
| 2028 | $4.4 million | $50 million | $4.4 million | $50 million |
Trading Wilson vs. cutting him only makes a difference if they are able to trade him during the 2024 offseason. At any other point, the numbers are all the same, making it clear it would just be easier for Denver to cut him rather than try and find a match for a trade.
It is possible the Broncos say "Let's Ride" with one more season of Wilson in 2024 before cutting him either as a pre-June 1 move to eat all the charges in 2025 or spread the charges out as a post-June 1 charge, but it's hard to see them dealing with those massive expenses next year unless Wilson is truly awful. Given his even modest improvements so far in 2023, it might be easier to keep him around for another season and see if another year under Sean Payton will help him turn things around.
