There are 26 quarterbacks enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. The last NFL QB to be inducted was Colts and Broncos legend Peyton Manning in 2020.
That Manning was a no-brainer, slam-dunk choice as one of the greatest all-time, but what about his younger brother and upcoming candidates?
With the 2024 HOF class once again not featuring a QB, it's time to look at which recently retired signal-callers and active quarterbacks have the best shots to get calls from the Hall.
Here's breaking them down from locks to probables to maybes.
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Pro Football Hall of Fame cases: Retired NFL QBs
Locks: Drew Brees, Tom Brady
Peyton Manning will need to wait a bit before his elite contemporaries give him company. Brees retired in 2021, while Brady retired in 2023. There's no question about either as first-ballot options, but then the candidates become interesting.
Probables: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning
Big Ben and Eli are both mult-Super Bowl-winning QBs taken in the first round of the 2024 draft. Roethlisberger won two rings with the Steelers, and Manning won two with the Giants, but they also had plenty of help from their defenses.
Roethlisberger was named to six Pro Bowls in 18 seasons; Manning nabbed four Pro Bowl nods in 16 seasons. Neither sniffed an All-Pro mention in their long careers, largely because of players such as Brees, Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers.
What helps both cases is that Roethlisberger, even with his off-field issues, is well revered in Pittsburgh as having an overall case that stacks up well to Terry Bradshaw, minus two rings. He was the tough face of the franchise for many years, having an old-school quality with uncanny playmaking in his prime.
Big Ben is only a little closer to lock status than Eli. The younger Manning is well respected by New York media and was an outstanding citizen off the field. He's a bit of a throwback, a la Joe Namath, in the NFL's biggest market. There's also no doubt that being beloved as Peyton's likable younger brother helps a ton, as does twice taking down Brady in the Super Bowl.
Maybes: Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan
Now it gets more complicated. On one hand, Rivers often surpassed Big Ben with his play and outdid Eli with his Brett Favre-like durability. On the other, he went ringless in his long career.
Rivers also lacked an All-Pro nod, but he made eight Pro Bowls in his 17 seasons with the Chargers and Colts. He has a case to be the best QB to never play in a Super Bowl, but is that case good enough for the Hall? He'll need the right push from SoCal sports writers to make it happen with likability also on his side.
Ryan played mostly in Atlanta before, like Rivers, ending his career in Indianapolis. "Matty Ice" played in a Super Bowl, and had the Falcons held that big lead vs. the Patriots, he might be talked about differently. He was league MVP and first-team All-Pro in that 2016 season, but he also made a modest four Pro Bowls in 15 years. He's bound to be overlooked by the committee and voters for a while, putting him into "Hall of Very Good" purgatory.
Pro Football Hall of Fame cases: Best active NFL quarterbacks
Locks: Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes
Rodgers matches Brees with one Super Bowl ring but doesn't have multiples a la Peyton and Brady. Nonetheless, four MVPs, five All-Pro nods, and elite play late into his career put him on the stone-cold, lead-pipe lock level.
Mahomes has his two rings and would be in Canton if he decided to walk away right now, doing what no one has really done at QB before turning 30.
Probables: Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson
Wilson was a near-lock with the Seahawks, but some recent bad vibes with his ending in Seattle and time in Denver have become minor annoyances in his case. He still is a big-time winner and highly efficient passer overall. He has a Super Bowl ring, has been to nine Pro Bowls, and delivered off the field in two cities Wilson is in, with a chance to remind voters and redeem himself well with the Steelers.
What does Jackson have in common with Peyton, Rodgers, Brady, Favre, Johnny Unitas, Mahomes, Kurt Warner, Steve Young, Joe Montana, and Namath? He has won more than one NFL MVP award. The rest of those QBs are in the Hall of Fame. Jackson is on the fast track at only 27 despite no Super Bowl rings yet.
Maybes: Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen
Stafford has been a prolific passer and was overshadowed by an elite group, and there's some sympathy for the fact he kept putting up gaudy numbers playing for the then-lowly Lions. Then he complicated things by getting a Super Bowl ring, thanks in huge part to the Rams' defense. Is he Joe Flacco, a one-ring guy with little else to put him in top company? Keep in mind that Flacco isn't on this list and Stafford has been to only two Pro Bowls in 15 seasons. Before the Rams run, he wasn't a playoff-winning QB. Los Angeles and recency bias help his case, but he really should not be Canton considered unless he has at least one more deep playoff run before calling it quits.
Allen needs to push toward an MVP and a Super Bowl ring soon because most of the other elite credentials are there. He's a strong-armed passer and freight-train runner at 28, making him a more consistent physical-talent version of Cam Newton. He could push to "probable" status soon.
Too Soons to Say: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts
Prescott, by many statistical measures and accolades, is a top-flight QB. However, much like Tony Romo, who had a few exceptional years ahead of him, he will remain much maligned for not winning big in the playoffs and helping the Cowboys end their well-documented Super Bowl drought. Dak can change his narrative in a hurry with one hot playoff run that ends in a ring, but it might take just that to change future voters' minds.
Goff is in a similar boat with fewer accolades. He can put himself in a Stafford-like situation in reverse if he can guide the now-loaded Lions to a ring. In many ways, he already has a leg up on forever-linked contemporary: Goff took the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018-19.
Burrow and Hurts don't have the young resumes of Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen yet, but they've both been to Super Bowls and can emerge as bigger, more consistent Super Bowl threats to Mahomes than either Jackson or Allen.
There's one thing clear: Numbers are great to boost a QB get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but as Vince Lombardi might say, there's no thing that helps more than a ring.
