The 2023 NFL playoffs are down to four teams still alive to win Super Bowl 57. The AFC championship will feature a rematch of last year's game between the Chiefs and Bengals in Kansas City. The NFC championship game has the Eagles hosting the 49ers in Philadelphia.
Three of this year's semifinalists are the same as last year, as the Eagles replace the Super Bowl 56 champion Rams. Either conference bracket has had little deviation from the chalk as it is No. 1 vs. No. 3 in the AFC and No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the NFC.
That also means any of the teams playing on championship weekend have a fair shot at winning Super Bowl 57, given their recent big-game experience. The Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl 54 and also got to Super Bowl 55. The Bengals were just runners-up in Super Bowl 56. The Eagles, with a similar profile of a team, won Super Bowl 52.
Here's how all four teams stack up against each other in the quest to finish with a ring, with their current Super Bowl-winning odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
MORE NFL PLAYOFFS:
AFC & NFC bracket | TV schedule | Super Bowl picks
Kansas City Chiefs (+250)
Why the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 57
1. Patrick Mahomes' playmaking. Mahomes has been the MVP for carrying a new-look offense beyond Travis Kelce and his reliable line. He's making it work with whoever's around him and he's gone back to being on point with his execution and efficiency after a mini-slump last season.
2. Even more playoff experience. The Chiefs are the new Patriots with Mahomes. They expect to be in consistent position to get to the Super Bowl and win it as the highest-floor contender in the AFC. They're the only one of the four teams to get a ring with the core of its current roster.
3. Big plays on defense. The Chiefs count on Mahomes and the offense to put pressure on opponents to pass as well as they do. If Steve Spagnuolo's pass rushers and cover men are put in good one-dimensional positions, they can change games with sacks and takeaways.
Why the Chiefs won't win Super Bowl 57
1. Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury. How healthy is Mahomes with his sprain?He hobbled through it to make enough plays against the Jaguars, but doing that two more times vs. much better defensive teams opposite more top offenses may be not so easy.
2. Pass defense. The Chiefs are very inexperienced on the back end and can be picked apart by dangerous wide receiver corps, which all three other teams possess.
3. Not running the ball enough. The Chiefs are at their best when they can also take pressure off and support Mahomes well with Isiah Pacheco's speed and power combined with Jerick McKinnon's dynamic receiving extension. Even with Mahomes, getting too pass-happy can hurt at key times.
San Francisco 49ers (+280)
Why the 49ers will win Super Bowl 57
1. A dominant defensive front seven. Nick Bosa and the rest of the front four is very disruptive and deep. Fred Warner and the linebacker corps seem to be everywhere and anywhere at the right times making plays on the ball and ball-carrier. The 49ers are nasty against the run, can get rush the passer at a high level and with Warner, proved how much their coverage can extend.
2. A next-level running game. When Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell both get rolling downhill behind the 49ers' ace offensive line and zone-blocking scheme, the 49ers are impossible to stop because they can control games offensively and finish better defensively.
3. A hard-to-cover passing game. With McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk all healthy, the defenses left simply don't have the personnel left to account for more than two of them.
Why the 49ers won't win Super Bowl 57
1. Brock Purdy's inexperience. Purdy hasn't shown any signs of cracking as a rookie seventh-round QB yet, but if he does, it could make a huge difference in cooling off and beating the 49ers.
2. Sometimes leaky pass defense. The 49ers stuff the run and apply pressure well, but when an opponent can have enough time to throw, they have a secondary that can be burned by better receivers getting the ball from top QBs.
3. Getting too creative. The 49ers' multiple and versatile passing game with Kyle Shanahan can drive defenses batty, but they need to be careful of not overextending with unnecessary wrinkles when they can lineup and win with their blocking, skill positions and now QB.
Philadelphia Eagles (+270)
Why the Eagles will win Super Bowl 57
1. Jalen Hurts' dual threat. See Hurts pass. See Hurts run. See Hurts do whatever he should do to lead the offense to big things, depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the defensive opponent. The Eagles will be hard to beat if Hurts' right shoulder is fine and he plays up to well-rounded MVP caliber.
2. Strongest overall line play. The Eagles have the best blocking group left in the field, and that's saying a lot with the Chiefs and 49ers still alive. They also have proved to be downright nasty with their defensive front, inside-out.
3. Coaching and cockiness. Nick Sirianni gives them some swagger, doesn't he? Then how about the whole Batman thing? The Eagles know how good they are and expect to out-execute everyone.
Why the Eagles won't win Super Bowl 57
1. Inconsistent traditional running game. Miles Sanders and Hurts' support from others in the rushing attack can sometimes disappear when not dominating a matchup.
2. Sometimes leaky run defense. The Eagles worked to shore this up with bigger bodies for their interior rotation, but a team must be able to stick with some success on the ground to beat them.
3. Turnovers. The Eagles lost their handful of games when they made key mistakes. If they can't avoid those, it would likely cost them.
Cincinnati Bengals (+260)
Why the Bengals will win Super Bowl 57
1. Joe Burrow's coolness. Mahomes and Hurts have gotten most of the MVP front-runner love, but Burrow had made another late pitch with his elite play down the stretch and smooth, calm leadership and execution again in the playoffs. He might be the guy to keep crashing Mahomes' party.
2. Even more playoff experience. Burrow and most of the players around him went through this whole run in similar fashion last year. They know how they lost in the end, so now they can figure out how to keep winning.
3. Coaching and renewed confidence. Zac Taylor, Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo have gotten in more of a groove with their game plans and play-calling. They know their personnel so well and deploy them in the right ways. They are pushing more of the right buttons again.
Why the Bengals won't win Super Bowl 57
1. Getting too pass-happy. Burrow needs at least some semblance of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine getting involved on the ground to keep defenses honest. When it starts getting key gains, then it also opens up the bigger pass plays. Cincinnati needs to keep avoiding getting one-dimensional out of its own volition.
2. Offensive line play. The Bengals' fill-in group was fantastic against the Bills but the tests will keep on coming. In relation to Philadelphia, San Francisco and Kansas City, Cincinnati has by far the worst front five.
3. Pass coverage breakdowns. The Bengals can tend to give up big plays with Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt starting. They must limited these, which will be difficult given the downfield firepower of the other three teams left. So more of what they did vs. the Bills needs to keep happening.
