NFL mock drafts are always a good exercise in trying to predict how the NFL Draft will go, but they are often missing one key element that is a part of the event.
Unpredictability.
Most mock drafts are written by one person who is in control of the whole process. That leads to the inevitable shifting of several picks when players available don't line up with the needs of teams selecting.
So, how can one get a better measure of what might happen in the 2023 NFL Draft? The Sporting News' latest mock draft features two NFL experts alternating making the selections to simulate the chaos that could impact the board on draft day.
Immediately, the draft was derailed by the surprise selection of Will Anderson Jr. at No. 2 overall. There were a couple of relative surprises after that as well, including Will Levis being drafted ahead of Anthony Richardson, who tumbled down the board, and Jalin Hyatt sneaking into the first round as the fifth receiver selected.
MORE: SN's latest 3-round mock draft | Top 140 big board
Here's a look at one way that the first round could break, according to TSN's Jacob Camenker and Joe Rivera:
NFL mock draft 2023
1. Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Joe Rivera: The Panthers didn't just trade up to grab a quarterback, but to also give themselves options for quarterback. Stroud's size, smarts and overall fluidity gives Young a run for his money for the top pick, but the Panthers ultimately take Young for everything that goes beyond the tangible.
2. Texans: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Jacob Camenker: Everyone knows the Texans need a quarterback, but they aren't necessarily guaranteed to take one even with the No. 2 overall pick. They may opt to go with a blue-chip defensive player like Anderson — who has 27.5 sacks over the last two seasons combined — as they mold their defense in first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans' vision.
3. Cardinals: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Rivera: The Cardinals and Jonathan Gannon are thrilled to see Carter here. Despite some pre-draft and off-the-field concerns, Carter is still a blue chip talent and challenged Anderson to be the top defender off the board in the draft. Carter will slide into the defense well, whether it's a 3-4 or 4-3 that Gannon decides to deploy.
4. Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Camenker: If Stroud is on the board at No. 4 overall, the Colts would be ecstatic. The Ohio State product was a star for the Buckeyes, completing 69.3 percent. of his career passes for 8,123 yards, 85 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. He has the arm strength and talent needed to be a decade-long starter in the NFL and he would finally give Indianapolis the long-term quarterback stability they have lacked since Andrew Luck's surprise retirement.
IYER: Ranking the top 10 QB prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft
5. Seahawks: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Rivera: The Seahawks really need edge rush talent, and have for years. Seattle's secondary led by Tariq Woolen will only thrive with Wilson on the edge. Plus, Wilson's floor as an elite run stopper works well in a division that has some good rushing attacks.
6. Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Camenker: Running back may be devalued as a position, but Robinson is a rare playmaker at the position. He may be the best overall player in this draft class and since the Lions have two picks, they can afford to spend a premium resource on him to complete the team's stellar-looking offense.
7. Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Rivera: The Raiders are going to be connected to quarterbacks this cycle, but Josh McDaniels will be totally fine with giving the keys to Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders need help at defensive back, and Gonzalez figures to be the best cornerback in the class.
8. Falcons: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Camenker: The Falcons will probably be hoping that one of the top defensive linemen slips to them. If they don't, then Atlanta may turn its attention to the offensive trenches and take Skoronski as a future replacement for Jake Matthews. Atlanta could play him at left guard in place of Matt Hennessy, who allowed two sacks and committed three penalties in just 157 snaps last year, in the interim and Skoronski could emerge as an elite interior lineman.
9. Bears: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Rivera: Chicago was very much hoping that Skoronski, the local boy, would be available at this pick. They can't be upset with Ohio State's Johnson, though, who is probably OT2 in the class.
10. Eagles: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Camenker: The Eagles frequently have drafted players along the offensive and defensive lines during Howie Roseman's reign. Van Ness is a raw, redshirt sophomore but has immense potential given his 6-5, 272-pound frame and his athleticism. His teammates affectionately call him "Hercules" and he could thrive in Philadelphia as he learns under veteran Brandon Graham.
11. Titans: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Rivera: The Titans need OL help, and badly. With the top two options off the board, Broderick Jones has a high ceiling, but he may not achieve that in Year 1. Instead, they grab a LT of the future with the understanding that 2023 may be a lost year, anyway.
12. Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Camenker: The Texans may be sweating out a Levis drop if they wait until the 12th pick to get a quarterback, but they would presumably be ecstatic to land him here. The Kentucky product has the tools needed to develop into a quality quarterback — namely a big-time arm — and comes from a pro-style offense that will allow him to transition to the NFL quicker than the other top passer on the board here, Anthony Richardson.
NFL DRAFT RUMORS: Could Colts be a fit for QB Will Levis?
13. Jets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Rivera: New York's biggest defensive needs (linebacker, safety) come at positions that aren't valuable at this pick. The top three tackles are off the board at this point. So, why not load up at receiver? They made a run at Odell Beckham Jr. and traded away Elijah Moore earlier in the offseason. JSN reuniting with Garrett Wilson could make fun for whoever's playing quarterback come Week 1.
14. Patriots: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Camenker: The Patriots would be thrilled to land a player like Witherspoon here. The gritty Illinois product is a tough playmaker at the cornerback position and had three interceptions and 14 pass defenses last season. He's a bit on the smaller side at just 5-11 1/2, 181, but Bill Belichick has shown a penchant for drafting smaller corners of late. So, he won't be afraid to take Witherspoon here.
15. Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Rivera: The Packers got some nice returns from Christian Watson later in the season, and need to surround Jordan Love with as much pass-catching talent as possible. Mayer has been in a battle with Dalton Kincaid as TE1 in the class, but his college resume is much too good to pass up in this spot.
16. Commanders: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Camenker: The Commanders signed Andrew Wylie away from the Chiefs during the 2023 NFL offseason, but that won't stop them from selecting Wright if he's available here. Wright has a pro-ready 6-5, 333-pound frame and has the makings of a plug-and-play prospect at right tackle. His presence would allow Wylie to move to guard to replace either rookie Sam Cosmi or veteran Andrew Norwell in the starting lineup.
17. Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Rivera: Like father, like son? Pittsburgh isn't just taking JPJ to play to nostalgia. Pittsburgh needs cornerback help and his elite traits and physical play style should make him an instant hit among Steelers fans.
18. Lions: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Camenker: Smith seems like the kind of high-character athlete that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes would love. He was excellent at the NFL Combine — clocking a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash — and has the skills needed to be a top-tier pass rusher at the next level. He's a bit undersized at 6-2, 238 pounds, but the Lions would still probably love to add him to their pass rush rotation across from Aidan Hutchinson.
19. Buccaneers: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Rivera: The Buccaneers were potentially picking a quarterback here, but Todd Bowles wants to win in the immediate to take job security heat off of him. Gibbs isn't the biggest back in the world, but he's a home-run hitter, and should
20. Seahawks: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Camenker: The Seahawks could double up on the defensive line in the first round, but they also could take a receiver to round out their offensive weapons. Johnston has a great combination of size (6-3) and speed, so he might be the toolsy type of player that Pete Carroll and John Schneider think they can coach up.
BENDER: How TCU's Quentin Johnston emerged as the top WR in the 2023 NFL Draft
21. Chargers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Rivera: Tight ends are a quarterback's best friend, and both Donald Parham and Gerald Everett are entering the last year of their deals. Kincaid draws comparisons to Zach Ertz, and can operate fluidly in the middle of the field to deliver a security blanket to the deep-slinging Justin Herbert.
22. Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Camenker: It's no secret that the Ravens need help at receiver. It also seems that they have a high level of interest in Flowers, who is only 5-9, 182 pounds but has the speed and route-running skills needed to be a threatening NFL receiver. He also is excellent at making contested grabs for his size, so he could end up being a better-rounded NFL receiver than most presume.
23. Vikings: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Rivera: Richardson goes through quite a slide, but he might land in the perfect spot. Kirk Cousins has a year left on his deal, and it feels as though the working relationship might run its course, even with a good year in 2023. Richardson gets to learn behind Cousins while offering the potential to unlock new dimensions of Kevin O'Connell's offense.
24. Jaguars: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Camenker: Banks is the latest perimeter player from Maryland to draw attention at the NFL Combine with a strong performance. He ran a 4.35 40-yard dash and measured in at 6-0, 197 pounds. He has good length and if developed properly could be a good No. 1 cornerback in the NFL. The Jaguars need help at the position after releasing Shaquil Griffin, so grabbing Banks here is a sensible decision.
25. Giants: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Rivera: The Giants had one of the weakest wide receiver corps in 2022 after trading away Kadarius Toney, their 2021 first-round selection. Addison is quick and a good route-runner with some juice after the catch. He should fit well with Daniel Jones in Brian Daboll's offense.
26. Cowboys: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Camenker: The Cowboys would probably like to add some talent up the middle here, but Murphy is too good to pass on. The Clemson product has tantalizing potential and posted 18.5 sacks and six forced fumbles during his three seasons with the Tigers. He never quite had the breakout year that many expected of him, but the Cowboys would probably love to land him as a long-term partner for Micah Parsons.
27. Bills: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Rivera: The other receiver options are off the board, and there's no more value at tackle here, either. Hyatt might be a reach here, but Josh Allen won't be able to overthrow the speedy receiver, and the Bills need outside help.
MORE: The 11 teams most likely to trade up or down in the 2023 NFL Draft
28. Bengals: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
Camenker: I really wanted to give the Bengals Darnell Washington here, but I'm not sure that they would be able to pass on Branch. The Alabama product was a do-it-all threat for the Alabama defense — playing at safety, in the slot and at corner — and racking up 90 tackles, 14 TFL, three sacks, two interceptions and seven pass defenses. Cincinnati has young talent at defensive back after drafting Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt early last year, but after losing Jessie Bates in free agency, the Bengals need as much defensive depth as possible.
29. Saints: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Rivera: The Saints don't have much talent at DT; they signed both Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders this offseason, both of whom work best as rotational DTs. Bresee looked healthy at the NFL Combine, and his best football could be ahead of him.
30. Eagles: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
Camenker: Could the Eagles really take two defensive linemen with their first two picks? It's possible, as they will soon need to replace several veterans of note up front. Besides, Kancey is the best player on the board. The undersized Pitt product is a great interior pass rusher who recorded 14.5 sacks over his last two seasons before posting Aaron Donald-like testing numbers at the 2023 NFL Combine.
31. Chiefs: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
Rivera: This pick is usually a luxury pick for teams who win the Super Bowl, but McDonald slipping all the way to 31 is both a surprise and a blessing for Kansas City. With Frank Clark gone, the Chiefs are going to need outside help to pair with Chris Jones' interior domination. McDonald, who some feel may be the No. 2 EDGE in the class, can step in and pair with George Karlaftis as bookend rushers.
