NFL Draft pick trade value chart: How Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill shaped the way that teams evaluate draft picks in trades

Jacob Camenker

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NFL Draft pick trade value chart: How Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill shaped the way that teams evaluate draft picks in trades image

The NFL hasn't always been a trade-happy league, but we have seen quite a few deals during the 2022 offseason. Several big-name quarterbacks including Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Deshaun Watson have been traded and eight teams in the NFL now have multiple first-round picks.

Those teams now have a lot of buying power in the 2022 NFL Draft. They will be able to move up and down the board as they please while also setting themselves up to add assets during the 2023 NFL Draft if all goes well.

That said, NFL fans may wonder exactly how these teams evaluate draft picks when making a trade. After all, teams don't know who will be on the board at certain junctures in the draft, so how can they properly assess the worth of a pick?

Over the years, the NFL has figured out a way to determine the value of a draft pick. Some of the sport's brightest minds have created charts that assess what each pick is worth. Some were founded arbitrarily while others approached the problem more analytically, but at this point, every NFL team has a trade value chart.

That doesn't mean that they are all the same. In fact, they vary from team to team. But generally, all teams are in the same ballpark when discussing draft pick value, and that's thanks to the charts that were pioneered by Jimmy Johnson.

Below is a look at Johnson's original draft value chart as well as a more recently-created chart that uses a more analytical approach to the valuation than Johnson's.

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NFL Draft pick trade value chart: Jimmy Johnson

The original NFL Draft value chart was created by Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Cowboys in the early 1990s. The idea was simple. He wanted to assign numerical values to each draft pick as a way to evaluate the worth of picks for potential trades.

So, Johnson created the draft value trade chart by giving the first pick in the draft the highest value at 3,000 points. Each pick after that decreased in value. This chart gave the Cowboys a competitive advantage when making trades in the early stages of its use, but eventually, the rest of the NFL adopted it.

The value chart changes slightly from year to year because of the varying number of compensatory picks tacked on to each round beginning in the third and beyond. Here's a look at how the values shake out for the 2022 NFL Draft, per Drafttek.com.

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value
1 JAX 3,000 33 JAX 580 65 JAX 265 106 JAX 82 144 CAR 34 180 JAX 17.8 222 JAX 1.7
2 DET 2,600 34 DET 560 66 DET 260 107 HOU 80 145 DEN 33 181 DET 17.4 223 CLE 1.4
3 HOU 2,200 35 NYJ 550 67 NYG 255 108 HOU 78 146 NYJ 31.4 182 NYG 17 224 MIA 1.1
4 NYJ 1,800 36 NYG 540 68 HOU 250 109 SEA 76 147 NYG 31 183 HOU 16.6 225 PIT 1
5 NYG 1,700 37 HOU 530 69 NYJ 245 110 BAL 74 148 CHI 30.6 184 MIN 16.2 226 CIN 1
6 CAR 1,600 38 NYJ 520 70 JAX 240 111 NYJ 72 149 CAR 30.2 185 BUF 15.8 227 LV 1
7 NYG 1,500 39 CHI 510 71 CHI 235 112 NYG 70 150 CHI 29.8 186 CHI 15.4 228 GB 1
8 ATL 1,400 40 SEA 500 72 SEA 230 113 WAS 68 151 ATL 29.4 187 SF 15 229 SEA 1
9 SEA 1,350 41 SEA 490 73 IND 225 114 ATL 66 152 SEA 29 188 JAX 14.6 230 WAS 1
10 NYJ 1,300 42 IND 480 74 ATL 220 115 DEN 64 153 SEA 28.6 189 WAS 14.2 231 BUF 1
11 WAS 1,250 43 ATL 470 75 DEN 215 116 DEN 62 154 PHI 28.2 190 ATL 13.8 232 DEN 1
12 MIN 1,200 44 CLE 460 76 BAL 210 117 NYJ 60 155 DAL 27.8 191 MIN 13.4 233 KC 1
13 HOU 1,150 45 BAL 450 77 MIN 205 118 CLE 58 156 MIN 27.4 192 MIN 13 234 DET 1
14 BAL 1,100 46 MIN 440 78 CLE 200 119 BAL 56 157 JAX 27 193 DAL 12.6 235 JAX 1
15 PHI 1,050 47 WAS 430 79 LAC 195 120 NO 54 158 NE 26.6 194 NO 12.2 236 LAC 1
16 NO 1000 48 CHI 420 80 HOU 190 121 KC 52 159 IND 26.2 195 LAC 11.8 237 PHI 1
17 LAC 950 49 NO 410 81 NYG 185 122 IND 50 160 LAC 25.8 196 BAL 11.4 238 LAR 1
18 PHI 900 50 KC 400 82 ATL 180 123 LAC 49 161 NO 25.4 197 JAX 11 239 IND 1
19 NO 875 51 PHI 390 83 PHI 175 124 PHI 48 162 PHI 25 198 JAX 10.6 240 WAS 1
20 PIT 850 52 PIT 380 84 PIT 170 125 MIA 47 163 NYJ 24.6 199 CAR 10.2 241 PIT 1
21 NE 800 53 GB 370 85 NE 165 126 LV 46 164 LV 24.2 200 NE 9.8 242 CAR 1
22 GB 780 54 NE 360 86 LV 160 127 NE 45 165 LV 23.8 201 ARI 9.4 243 KC 1
23 ARI 760 55 ARI 350 87 ARI 155 128 BAL 44 166 PHI 23.4 202 CLE 9 244 ARI 1
24 DAL 740 56 DAL 340 88 DAL 150 129 DAL 43 167 DAL 23 203 BUF 8.6 245 HOU 1
25 BUF 720 57 BUF 330 89 BUF 145 130 BUF 42 168 BUF 22.6 204 TEN 8.2 246 CLE 1
26 TEN 700 58 ATL 320 90 TEN 140 131 TEN 41 169 TEN 22.2 205 HOU 7.8 247 MIA 1
27 TB 680 59 GB 310 91 TB 136 132 GB 40 170 NE 21.8 206 DEN 7.4 248 TB 1
28 GB 660 60 TB 300 92 GB 132 133 TB 39.5 171 GB 21.4 207 HOU 7 249 GB 1
29 KC 640 61 SF 292 93 SF 128 134 SF 39 172 SF 21 208 PIT 6.6 250 MIN 1
30 KC 620 62 KC 284 94 KC 124 135 KC 38.5 173 NYG 20.6 209 CIN 6.2 251 KC 1
31 CIN 600 63 CIN 276 95 CIN 120 136 CIN 38 174 CIN 20.2 210 NE 5.8 252 CIN 1
32 DET 590 64 DEN 270 96 DEN 116 137 CAR 37.5 175 LAR 19.8 211 LAR 5.4 253 LAR 1
        97 DET 112 138 PIT 37 176 DAL 19.4 212 LAR 5 254 LAC 1
        98 NO 108 139 BAL 36.5 177 DET 19 213 ATL 4.6 255 LAC 1
        99 CLE 104 140 GB 36 178 DAL 18.6 214 LAC 4.2 256 ARI 1
        100 BAL 100 141 BAL 35.5 179 IND 18.2 215 ARI 3.8 257 ARI 1
        101 PHI 96 142 LAR 35     216 IND 3.4 258 GB 1
        102 MIA 92 143 TEN 34.5     217 DET 3 259 KC 1
        103 KC 88         218 LAR 2.3 260 LAC 1
        104 LAR 86         219 TEN 2 261 TB 1
        105 SF 84         220 SF 1.7 262 SF 1
                    221 SF 1.4    

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NFL Draft pick trade value chart: Rich Hill

Though Johnson's draft value chart was the first of its kind, it is no longer the be-all, end-all for NFL teams. Part of the reason for that is the fact that Johnson somewhat arbitrarily created the values in his initial chart. His concept was strong, but he had more limited access to statistical information and historical trends than NFL teams have now. So, he had to ballpark it a bit more.

In recent years, analytics have become far more common in the NFL, so it stands to reason that teams have done a thorough analysis of the trade value chart to find its shortcomings. That has changed the overall value of each pick as well.

The trade value charts from team to team are similar, but they are not one size fits all. That said, Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit created a draft pick value chart that many believe more accurately reflects the current value of draft picks in the NFL compared to Johnson's.

Below is a look at Hill's model for 2022, which begins by assigning the No. 1 pick 1,000 points instead of 3,000.

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value PK/TM Value
1 JAX 1000 33 JAX 180 65 JAX 78 106 JAX 33 144 CAR 15 180 JAX 7 222 JAX 3
2 DET 717 34 DET 175 66 DET 76 107 HOU 33 145 DEN 14 181 DET 7 223 CLE 3
3 HOU 514 35 NYJ 170 67 NYG 75 108 HOU 32 146 NYJ 14 182 NYG 7 224 MIA 3
4 NYJ 491 36 NYG 166 68 HOU 73 109 SEA 32 147 NYG 14 183 HOU 7 225 PIT 3
5 NYG 468 37 HOU 162 69 NYJ 71 110 BAL 31 148 CHI 13 184 MIN 6 226 CIN 3
6 CAR 446 38 NYJ 157 70 JAX 70 111 NYJ 31 149 CAR 13 185 BUF 6 227 LV 3
7 NYG 426 39 CHI 153 71 CHI 68 112 NYG 30 150 CHI 13 186 CHI 6 228 GB 3
8 ATL 406 40 SEA 149 72 SEA 67 113 WAS 29 151 ATL 12 187 SF 6 229 SEA 3
9 SEA 387 41 SEA 146 73 IND 65 114 ATL 29 152 SEA 12 188 JAX 6 230 WAS 2
10 NYJ 369 42 IND 142 74 ATL 64 115 DEN 28 153 SEA 12 189 WAS 6 231 BUF 2
11 WAS 358 43 ATL 138 75 DEN 63 116 DEN 28 154 PHI 12 190 ATL 6 232 DEN 2
12 MIN 347 44 CLE 135 76 BAL 61 117 NYJ 27 155 DAL 11 191 MIN 6 233 KC 2
13 HOU 336 45 BAL 131 77 MIN 60 118 CLE 27 156 MIN 11 192 MIN 6 234 DET 2
14 BAL 325 46 MIN 128 78 CLE 59 119 BAL 26 157 JAX 11 193 DAL 6 235 JAX 2
15 PHI 315 47 WAS 124 79 LAC 57 120 NO 26 158 NE 11 194 NO 5 236 LAC 2
16 NO 305 48 CHI 121 80 HOU 56 121 KC 25 159 IND 10 195 LAC 5 237 PHI 2
17 LAC 296 49 NO 118 81 NYG 55 122 IND 25 160 LAC 10 196 BAL 5 238 LAR 2
18 PHI 287 50 KC 115 82 ATL 54 123 LAC 24 161 NO 10 197 JAX 5 239 IND 2
19 NO 278 51 PHI 112 83 PHI 52 124 PHI 24 162 PHI 10 198 JAX 5 240 WAS 2
20 PIT 269 52 PIT 109 84 PIT 51 125 MIA 23 163 NYJ 9 199 CAR 5 241 PIT 2
21 NE 261 53 GB 106 85 NE 50 126 LV 23 164 LV 9 200 NE 5 242 CAR 2
22 GB 253 54 NE 104 86 LV 49 127 NE 22 165 LV 9 201 ARI 5 243 KC 2
23 ARI 245 55 ARI 101 87 ARI 48 128 BAL 22 166 PHI 9 202 CLE 5 244 ARI 2
24 DAL 237 56 DAL 98 88 DAL 47 129 DAL 21 167 DAL 9 203 BUF 5 245 HOU 2
25 BUF 230 57 BUF 96 89 BUF 46 130 BUF 21 168 BUF 8 204 TEN 4 246 CLE 2
26 TEN 223 58 ATL 93 90 TEN 45 131 TEN 20 169 TEN 8 205 HOU 4 247 MIA 2
27 TB 216 59 GB 91 91 TB 44 132 GB 20 170 NE 8 206 DEN 4 248 TB 2
28 GB 209 60 TB 88 92 GB 43 133 TB 19 171 GB 8 207 HOU 4 249 GB 2
29 KC 203 61 SF 86 93 SF 42 134 SF 19 172 SF 8 208 PIT 4 250 MIN 2
30 KC 196 62 KC 84 94 KC 41 135 KC 18 173 NYG 8 209 CIN 4 251 KC 2
31 CIN 190 63 CIN 82 95 CIN 40 136 CIN 18 174 CIN 7 210 NE 4 252 CIN 1
32 DET 184 64 DEN 80 96 DEN 39 137 CAR 18 175 LAR 7 211 LAR 4 253 LAR 1
        97 DET 38 138 PIT 17 176 DAL 7 212 LAR 4 254 LAC 1
        98 NO 38 139 BAL 17 177 DET 7 213 ATL 4 255 LAC 1
        99 CLE 37 140 GB 17 178 DAL 7 214 LAC 3 256 ARI 1
        100 BAL 37 141 BAL 16 179 IND 7 215 ARI 3 257 ARI 1
        101 PHI 36 142 LAR 16     216 IND 3 258 GB 1
        102 MIA 35 143 TEN 15     217 DET 3 259 KC 1
        103 KC 35         218 LAR 3 260 LAC 1
        104 LAR 34         219 TEN 3 261 TB 1
        105 SF 34         220 SF 3 262 SF 1
                    221 SF 3    

When Hill first created his draft value chart in 2018, he cautioned that there are instances when the values are unlikely to line up. Teams often have to pay a premium when moving up for a top-tier prospect (like a quarterback) and must pay a premium to trade back into the first round.

Additionally, Hill notes that there is no "perfect value" for future draft picks. They are often discounted in future trades, as teams view current assets as more valuable than future assets. Hill explains that the discount on those picks often amounts to about one round. As such, a future second-round pick would be viewed as roughly the same as a current third-round pick.

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Examples of using the two trade value charts

Most of the trades involving 2022 NFL Draft picks to date have involved players and/or future draft picks within them. While those can be assessed using the chart, it's a bit harder to do since players and future draft picks aren't given exact values.

As such, when looking at examples of the differences between the two trade value charts, it behooves us to look back at a couple of trades from the 2021 NFL Draft.

The first is the trade that the Eagles made to move from the 12th pick in Round 1 to the 10th to select DeVonta Smith. The details of that trade are as follows:

Eagles receive:

  • Round 1, Pick 10 (WR DeVonta Smith)

Cowboys receive:

  • Round 1, Pick 12 (LB Micah Parsons)
  • Round 3, Pick 84 (DE Chauncey Golston)

On the surface, this trade looks like a win for the Cowboys, who picked up a third-round pick to move down just two spots. Both trade value charts agree with that assessment, as each has the Cowboys winning by a value equal to an early fourth-round pick.

Team Johnson value chart Hill value chart
Eagles 1,300 369
Cowboys 1,370 398
Trade winner Cowboys by 70 Cowboys by 29

Another trade to look at is the one that the Jets and Vikings made to help New York move up and select Alijah Vera-Tucker. Here are the details of that deal:

Jets receive:

  • Round 1, Pick 14 (Vera-Tucker)
  • Round 4, Pick 143 (traded to the Raiders)

Vikings receive:

  • Round 1, Pick 23 (Christian Darrisaw)
  • Round 3, Pick 66 (Kellen Mond)
  • Round 3, Pick 88 (Wyatt Davis)

What does the trade value chart think about this deal for each team? It's considered to be pretty even, but once again, both models believe the team trading down, the Vikings, got the better value, as they beat the Jets in this deal by the value of a mid-to-late fourth-round pick.

Team Johnson value chart Hill value chart
Jets 1,134.5 340
Vikings 1,170 368
Trade winner Vikings by 35.5 Vikings by 28

As you can see, the trade value chart is immensely helpful in breaking down which teams have "won" trades. More often than not, it seems like it will be the team trading down, as those moving up in the first round often have to pay a premium to do so.

Jacob Camenker

Jacob Camenker Photo

Jacob Camenker first joined The Sporting News as a fantasy football intern in 2018 after his graduation from UMass. He became a full-time employee with TSN in 2021 and now serves as a senior content producer with a particular focus on the NFL. Jacob worked at NBC Sports Boston as a content producer from 2019 to 2021. He is an avid fan of the NFL Draft and ranked 10th in FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Accuracy metric in both 2021 and 2022.