It's usually pretty easy to identify the safest picks in any NFL Draft class, but figuring out which highly touted prospects are going to bust is a lot harder.
Any time you are looking at potential busts, you are casting doubts on the abilities of high-end prospects. These are often players who are projected to go in the first two rounds of the draft and sometimes, they are even viewed as a proverbial "can't-miss" prospect.
But as NFL fans all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot. While a lot can be gleaned from a player's performance on film, it doesn't paint a full picture of exactly what each player will be able to do at the next level. Some will struggle with the transition on the field while others may have off-the-field issues that could impact their ability to adapt.
And some players simply lack one trait that prevents them from becoming a great NFL player.
The 2023 NFL Draft class is considered to be a solid one, but there are still plenty of risky prospects who figure to be chosen in the first two rounds of it. Per usual, many of these players are quarterbacks being pushed up the board by demand at that position, but there are plenty of other draft darlings that come with serious bust potential.
But who are the biggest boom-or-bust candidates in the 2023 NFL Draft? Sporting News runs through some of the riskiest players that will likely go in the first or second round of this year's draft.
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2023 NFL Draft bust candidates
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Richardson has the potential to blossom into an elite quarterback in the NFL given his elite athleticism and excellent arm. However, there is also a good chance that he will not live up to that enormous potential.
Why? Because he simply isn't an accurate quarterback.
Richardson completed just 53.8 percent of his passes during his lone season as a starter at Florida. His career mark of 54.7 percent is slightly better, but he will still have the ignominious distinction as one of four quarterbacks drafted over the last decade who completed less than 55 percent of their college passes.
Who are the other three? They are Christian Hackenberg, Trace McSorley and Trey Lance.
That's not exactly a group that a quarterback wants to find himself in.
Sure, maybe Josh Allen and Cam Newton represent potential success stories for Richardson. After all, he is raw and with the right coaching could tap into his otherworldly athletic ability.
But Richardson's inaccuracy and lack of starting experience at quarterback will make him a risky selection, especially if he is chosen within the top five picks. As such, any team drafting him needs to have a development plan in place to get the most out of the Florida product.
MORE: How Anthony Richardson evokes Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Carter's tape and production at Georgia drew him consideration for the No. 1 pick early in the 2023 NFL offseason when the Bears owned the top selection. He remains a potential top-five pick, but his stock has cooled a bit as he has navigated some off-the-field issues before the draft.
Carter had to return to Athens, Ga. during the 2023 NFL Combine after a warrant was issued for his arrest. He was charged with reckless driving and racing in connection to a deadly crash that killed one of his Georgia teammates and a staffer. It was reported that Carter had misled police about his proximity to the incident, which was the driving force behind his arrest.
Carter turned himself in and eventually agreed to a plea deal with Athens-Clarke County solicitors. He received 12 months of probation and had to pay a $1,000 fine as part of his punishment, and the incident put a damper on his then-rising draft stock.
His arrest aside, Carter also put together a poor Pro Day performance and wasn't able to participate in the NFL Combine because of his arrest. Those combined issues are scaring some teams away from Carter all together.
"We definitely need him, but we won't be drafting him," a director of player personnel told WalterFootball.com's Charlie Campbell. "We aren't going to mess with him with that work ethic and character."
If Carter's work ethic continues to be an issue in the NFL, he could end up disappointing. That will make him a true boom-or-bust pick as a likely top-10 selection.
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Hooker is almost certainly going to be one of the first five quarterbacks selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, and with good reason. He helped lead Tennessee to its best season in decades in 2022 and completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
So, why does Hooker have bust potential? Well, he is coming off a torn ACL and may not be 100 percent during his rookie season. That may make it harder for him to get on the field during his rookie offseason and that may hinder his development.
Normally, that wouldn't be a big-time concern for teams selecting a talented quarterback, but Hooker is older than the average prospect. He will be a 25-year-old rookie, so teams hoping to take advantage of his prime years as a passer will need him to develop quicker than the average quarterback. That may not be possible because of his injury and because of Tennessee's offense, which isn't exactly a pro-style system.
Hooker still could eventually become a starting quarterback, but it also wouldn't be a surprise if his age and injury cap his potential. His landing spot may be more important than anything else in determining his potential NFL success.
MORE: Where Hendon Hooker ranks among 2023 NFL Draft's oldest players
Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Jones is a prospect who has the physical tools that fans will drool over. He has an incredible 6-8, 374-pound frame and length that is simply unteachable.
While that size may be an asset for Jones, it could also be a hindrance. We have seen larger offensive tackles struggle against smaller, quicker pass rushers at the next level. While Jones has solid enough movement skills, this could still prove problematic if he plays too upright.
Additionally, Jones has been prone to committing penalties during his time with the Buckeyes. He was whistled for 16 infractions during his last two seasons at Ohio State and will certainly need to clean that up in the NFL to avoid consistently putting his offense behind the chains.
Jones should probably be a Day 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft given his raw tools. However, if he does sneak into the first round, he will be one of the top boom-or-bust players to watch as he adapts to facing quicker pass rushers in the NFL.
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Johnston is one of the most polarizing players in the 2023 NFL Draft. There is an argument that he could be the most talented receiver within it, as he has a 6-3, 208-pound frame and caught 60 passes for 1,069 yards during his final season with the Horned Frogs.
That said, there's also an argument that he has the highest bust potential of the four receivers expected to be first-round picks in 2023. Why? Because he lacks the route-running polish that some of the other top receivers possess and isn't exactly a natural catcher of the ball.
Johnston dropped a whopping 10.2 percent of his career catchable passes according to Pro Football Focus. If he has a drop rate of anything close to that in the NFL, it will frustrate his quarterback and render him an inconsistent playmaker.
Meanwhile, Johnston simply wasn't asked to run crisp, precise routes at TCU, so he needs to clean up that area of his game at the next level. If he can't do that, he may struggle to separate even despite his solid speed. That could limit him to being a contested-catch receiver.
It's also worth noting the dubious history of Big 12 receivers selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Need proof? Just look at the seven first-round picks from that conference since 2013.
| Year | Player | NFL stats per 17 games |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin | 37 catches, 337 yards, 2 TDs |
| 2015 | Kevin White | 16 catches, 225 yards, 0 TDs |
| 2016 | Corey Coleman | 38 catches, 497 yards, 3 TDs |
| 2016 | Josh Doctson | 40 catches, 550 yards, 4 TDs |
| 2019 | Marquise Brown | 77 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb | 90 catches, 1,178 yards, 7 TDs |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor | 27 catches, 302 yards, 2 TDs |
Lamb is the only true No. 1 receiver on this list while Brown looks the part of a No. 2 receiver in the NFL. The rest of the bunch, however, are either out of the NFL or are back-end roster candidates.
That's not to say that Johnston is doomed to that fate, but he will need to overcome a recent negative historical trend to find success. It isn't a given he will achieve that considering the other flaws in his game.
BENDER: How TCU's Quentin Johnston emerged as the top WR in the 2023 NFL Draft
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Forbes' skill set and stats are intriguing enough that he has gotten some first-round buzz late in the 2023 NFL Draft process. He recorded a whopping 14 interceptions in three seasons at Mississippi State and showed off great movement skills and athleticism at the NFL Combine to boost his draft stock.
The drawback with Forbes is similar to the main detractor with DeVonta Smith. He is an outlier and may not have the requisite size needed to thrive in the NFL.
Forbes measured at 6-1 during the 2023 NFL Combine but weighed a paltry 166 pounds. That is light for the NFL level — the average NFL defensive back weighs 200 pounds, per a University of Idaho study — and it will cause teams to question whether Forbes will be durable enough to guard bigger and more physical NFL players.
That said, Smith will be pointed to as a reason not to worry about Forbes' slighter frame. And many will point out that Forbes played 35 games in three seasons with the Bulldogs, so it's not like he had a bad track record with durability in college.
Still, the college level is different than the pro level and if Forbes struggles to stay on the field or against bigger-bodied receivers, he may not live up to his draft billing. There are a wide range of outcomes for him, so that will make him a boom-or-bust pick.
