Michael Penix Jr. might not be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he could emerge as a steal if he lands in the right scenario.
The Washington product was the Heisman Trophy runner-up during the 2023 college football season after he led the Huskies to an appearance in the CFP National Championship game. He completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 4,903 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions during his final season.
Penix has a strong arm, and, at his best, showcased excellent accuracy and pinpoint ball placement while operating within Kalen DeBoer's offense. He has solid athleticism and proved he can be an impact starter during his final season at Washington.
Penix has some drawbacks, too. He has a lengthy injury history, playing just 21 games in four seasons at Indiana, and will be a 24-year-old rookie. He also endured his share of issues when under pressure and battled consistency problems during the second half of the season.
However, when firing on all cylinders, it's clear that Penix has the potential to be a solid NFL starter. If the team that drafts him can properly support and keep him healthy, he could do so sooner than many expect.
There should be no shortage of teams interested in Penix, whether it's franchises that need a starter now or those looking for a quarterback to develop behind a veteran. We break down the six teams that stand out as good fits for Penix, who seems likely to be selected at some point on the first two days of the 2024 NFL Draft.
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Michael Penix best fits
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders hoped signing Jimmy Garoppolo last season would provide an upgrade over Derek Carr. Instead, the former 49er was benched after just six starts and is likely to be released this offseason. That will leave Vegas with Aidan O'Connell and Brian Hoyer as its only quarterbacks.
O'Connell flashed solid skills at times last season, but the Raiders will likely want to add competition for him, whether it's from free agency or the NFL Draft. They won't have a shot at any of the draft's top-three quarterbacks and J.J. McCarthy might not be on the board for them with the 13th pick either.
That makes Penix an ideal target for the Raiders, as he isn't guaranteed to be a first-round pick. As such, the Raiders could address their offensive line issues in Round 1 while targeting Penix — who has more upside than O'Connell — on Day 2 of the draft.
Penix had great receivers at Washington in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja'Lynn Polk, so pairing him with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers could be a recipe for success.
Seattle Seahawks
Staying in the state of Washington could be in the cards for Penix. Geno Smith will start for the Seahawks in 2024, but he turns 34 in October. Seattle underwent a coaching change during the offseason, so Mike Macdonald might want to bring in his own quarterback, especially with backup quarterback Drew Lock hitting free agency.
Could Penix be an ideal heir apparent for Smith? McDonald hired Ryan Grubb as his offensive coordinator after Grubb spent the past two seasons as Penix's offensive coordinator at Washington. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Grubb lobby for Penix considering the success they enjoyed together.
The one issue for the Seahawks is that they don't have a second-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. They used it to acquire Leonard Williams from the Giants ahead of the 2023 NFL trade deadline, so they may have to use their two third-round picks to trade up and get Penix unless his draft range ends up being similar to that of Hendon Hooker.
Of course, the Seahawks have also been bold with their first-round picks under John Schneider. Could they use the 16th selection on Penix? It doesn't seem likely, but it can't be ruled out.
MORE: Everything to know about the Seahawks new coach Mike Macdonald
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are probably the best overall fit for Penix. They need a quarterback but otherwise have an offense that is ready to win now. Recent first-round picks Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts would offer Penix plenty of support on the ground and through the air, and Atlanta's rock-solid offensive line would be able to keep him clean.
Atlanta probably won't use the No. 8 overall pick on a quarterback — unless the Falcons can trade up for one of the top three passers or they fall in love with J.J. McCarthy — so that makes Penix a logical second-round target. The only question is whether the Falcons will be interested in adding him if they trade for Justin Fields, which they are presently favored to do, or if they would only consider that after signing a veteran like Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings should be tied to every quarterback available during the 2024 offseason. Kirk Cousins and Josh Dobbs are free agents, so Minnesota has only Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall on the roster at quarterback if Cousins and Dobbs leave the team.
Minnesota could target McCarthy or even Bo Nix with the 11th pick, but Kevin O'Connell would get a lot out of Penix, a strong-armed pocket passer. Pairing him with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison could help his development, too, so perhaps the Vikings will target some much-needed defensive help early before going after Penix in the second round.
The Vikings could also consider moving up into the end of the first round to select Penix while getting him on an all-important fifth-year option. They once did that with Teddy Bridgewater in 2014, so perhaps they'll do the same a decade later if they target a young signal-caller in the draft.
MORE: Latest Justin Fields trade rumors as Falcons emerge as top landing spot
Denver Broncos
Many have connected the Broncos to McCarthy and Nix, as both passers are lauded for their accuracy and have the athletic upside needed to develop into NFL stars. That said, Payton could work well with Penix, too, so with Russell Wilson on his way out of Denver, the Washington product can't be ruled out here.
Penix could challenge Jarrett Stidham for the starting job in Denver and has the upside needed to develop into a good starter. It might be better for his career for him to land with a team like the Seahawks, who doesn't need a starter right away, but Payton's proven track record and Denver's stable of veteran weapons would at least give Penix a shot to perform well early in his NFL career.
New York Giants
If you're looking for a sleeper team to pursue Penix, look no further than the Giants. New York has Tommy DeVito under contract behind Daniel Jones, but the Giants may want a higher-upside player to develop behind Jones, who has enjoyed just one successful season as a starter during his NFL career.
Penix would give them that. He could be installed as the backup quarterback for 2024 and be given ample time to work on his game with Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka. Then, if Jones' struggles continue, Penix could get his feet wet with some late-season starts.
The Giants have two second-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, so they are well-positioned to chase Penix should they want him early in the second or late in the first. The only question is whether they would have concerns about his ability to deal with pressure considering the state of New York's offensive line.
In an offensive line-rich draft, the Giants might not be worried about protecting Jones and Penix if they can shore up their blocking unit.
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Michael Penix mock draft
Penix is viewed as a second-round value by most draft analysts entering the 2024 NFL Combine, though some are still mocking him in the late first round. This isn't a surprise considering Penix's lengthy injury history and the issues he displayed when heavily pressured during his time at Washington.
Still, many believe that Penix's arm strength and downfield ball-placement skills will give him a chance to develop into a starting quarterback at the NFL level.
Here's a look at where Penix is going in some of the latest expert NFL mock drafts:
Sporting News
- Analyst: Vinnie Iyer
- Projection: Round 2, Pick 42
- Team: Vikings
Analysis: "The Vikings need a strong-armed pocket passer to succeed Kirk Cousins in Kevin O'Connell's system. Penix, above all other QBs in this class that are bound to go ahead of him, fits that style best."
Pro Football Network
- Analyst: Ian Cummings
- Projection: Round 2, Pick 45
- Team: Saints
Analysis: "Injuries could push Michael Penix Jr. down the board, but if he’s still here for the Saints, he has the starting upside, processing ability, and competitive toughness to bank on."
Walter Football
- Analyst: Charlie Campbell
- Projection: Round 2, Pick 43
- Team: Falcons
Analysis: "Penix has a live arm and can fire missiles downfield. He is at his best throwing downfield outside the numbers. Penix needs to improve his footwork, and field vision as he will throw into coverage constantly. The 6-foot-3, 214-pounder has some athleticism and running ability to make some things happen with his feet, but he needs development to become a more consistent passer and see the field adequately to start at the pro level."
NBC Sports Boston
- Analyst: Phil Perry
- Projection: Round 1, Pick 20
- Team: Steelers
Analysis: "For some teams, Penix's medical history might be an issue. But the Steelers know that Kenny Pickett isn't enough."
