The Lions looked like they had a chance to stay in the race for the NFC's No. 1 seed when Jared Goff fired a two-point conversion to Taylor Decker in their Week 17 game against the Cowboys to take a one-point lead.
Famously, referee Brad Allen and his crew ruled that Decker hadn't reported eligible before the play. The Lions then failed the ensuing two-point conversion to lose by a single point against Dallas.
That play shifted the landscape of the NFC considerably.
Instead of looking like a top-two seed and having a shot at a first-round bye, the Lions find themselves likely locked into a lower seed. They are still poised to have a home playoff game for the first time since 1993 and could improve their seeding if things break in their favor during NFL Week 18.
LIVE: Updated NFL standings, playoff scenarios for Week 18
Here's what to know about Detroit's seeding options for the 2024 NFL playoffs as the Lions get ready for the final week of the season.
Lions playoff picture
The Lions clinched the No. 3 seed in the NFC despite beating the Vikings for the second time in three weeks. They needed both the Cowboys and Eagles to lose to earn the No. 2 seed, but the Cowboys were able to blow out the Commanders in Week 18 to clinch that honor.
Here's a look at how the Lions could have landed the No. 2 and No. 3 seed entering Week 18.
How the Lions can clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC
The Lions are facing an uphill battle in earning the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They need to get help from both the Cowboys and Eagles to climb up into that spot, and that doesn't seem likely, as the Cowboys and Eagles are playing the Commanders and Giants respectively.
Officially, the Lions would need to win and see both the Cowboys and Eagles lose or tie to clinch the No. 2 seed. The Lions can also get the second seed by tying the Vikings and seeing both the Cowboys and Eagles lose.
How the Lions can clinch the No. 3 seed in the NFC
If the Lions can't climb up to the No. 2 seed, then they will be the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
If Detroit loses, Dallas wins or Philadelphia wins, then the Lions will be the No. 3 seed. Any one of those results would guarantee it. So too would a Lions tie coupled with either a Cowboys or an Eagles tie.
All that is to say that the Lions look fairly locked into the No. 3 seed. Perhaps they will get lucky and find a way to climb up with help from their NFC East counterparts, but it appears the Lions will be hosting a home playoff game as the No. 3 seed on wild-card weekend.
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Lions clinching scenarios
To recap, here are the clinching scenarios for the Lions for each seed:
Lions clinch No. 2 seed with:
- Lions win AND Cowboys loss or tie AND Eagles loss or tie
- Lions tie AND Cowboys loss AND Eagles loss
Lions clinch No. 3 seed with:
- Lions loss OR
- Cowboys win OR
- Eagles win OR
- Lions tie AND Cowboys tie OR
- Lions tie AND Eagles tie
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Lions potential playoff opponents
The Lions had six potential opponents for the wild-card round, but they will ultimately face the Los Angeles Rams, who ended up locking up the No. 6 seed with a win over the 49ers. That will set up and intriguing Jared Goff vs. Matthew Stafford battle as each looks to earn a victory against their former teams.
Below is a look at the potential opponents the Lions could have faced in the wild-card round had Week 18 played out differently.
Potential 2-seed opponents
- Green Bay Packers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New Orleans Saints
- Minnesota Vikings
The Packers are Rams are the most likely No. 7 seed that the Lions would face if they earn the No. 2 seed. The Rams have already clinched the sixth or seventh seed in the conference while the Packers can clinch a playoff berth with a victory over the Bears in Week 18.
The Seahawks, Buccaneers, Saints and Vikings all need help to earn the No. 7 seed, but they remain in contention nonetheless.
The Lions have a 3-2 combined record against these six teams during the 2023 NFL season, so they should retain a slight edge regardless of who their opponent is.
Potential 3-seed opponents
- Los Angeles Rams
- Green Bay Packers
With the Lions looking highly likely to be the No. 3 seed, it looks like the team will play either the Rams or Packers. Those are the only two teams that can earn the sixth seed in the NFC, so the Lions will have to prepare either for a third date with the Packers or a first date with Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
Detroit and Los Angeles haven't played yet this year, and many would be excited to see Stafford and Jared Goff do battle against their former teams. At the same time, the Lions and Packers split their season series 1-1, so a rubber match after Green Bay dealt Detroit another Thanksgiving loss could be fun as well.
