There are so many trades that in retrospective — or even in the moment — don't appear so good for NFL teams.
The Raiders trading Randy Moss to the Patriots is certainly one that did not work out for the Oakland. The Saints moving up in the draft for Ricky Williams was a head-scratcher even in the moment. This offseason's trade of Carson Wentz to the Commanders also seems like a rich price to pay for a middle-of-the-road QB.
But sometimes, there are deals made that made sense both in the moment for both sides and in retrospect still come out as an even swap. That's been the case with the deal between the Bills and the Vikings ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft.
To recap that swap, Minnesota sent star receiver Stefon Diggs and a seventh-round pick to the Bills for Buffalo's 2020 first-, fifth- and sixth-round picks, and the Bills' 2021 fourth-round selection. The Bills used the seventh on corner Dane Jackson, while the Vikings wound up dealing their 2020 fifth- and sixth-round picks and used the 2021 fourth on edge Janarius Robinson.
Oh yeah, and that first was used to draft Justin Jefferson.
It's safe to say both Diggs and Jefferson are well within the group of players considered the top wide receivers in the NFL. Diggs has been an instrumental part of the rise of Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense, while Jefferson has been setting records in a historic start to his NFL career. Safe to say, neither team would be asking for a do-over on this one.
Justin Jefferson vs. Stefon Diggs
Justin Jefferson
Stats since trade: 205 receptions, 3,200 yards, 19 touchdowns
During the middle of the 2019 season, things weren't going well with the Vikings and Diggs. The budding star receiver had been frustrated with his usage in the Vikings' offense, and when asked point blank about trade rumors in October, he responded there was "truth to all rumors." It was clear his time in Minnesota was rapidly coming to an end.
The next March, Diggs was sent to the Bills, and the Vikings were left wondering who they would be able to snag at No. 20 when their new pick came up in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The Vikings definitely needed to go out and look at wide receivers after the loss of Diggs, particularly as they were coming off a season in which the only other player on the team with at least 500 receiving yards besides Diggs was running back Dalvin Cook, though Adam Thielen had recorded 1,000 yards in both 2017 and 2018.
Fortunately, the 2020 NFL Draft class was loaded with wide receivers. There was Alabama's Henry Ruggs, who went 12th to the Raiders, Alabama's Jerry Jeudy, who went 15th to the Broncos and Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb, who went 17th to the Cowboys. The Eagles at No. 19 were going for a receiver, and Vikings' brass thought that was where Jefferson would be taken. Instead, Philadelphia went for Jalen Reagor, and the rest, well, is history.
One year ago today 😊 pic.twitter.com/hIP0JpJSfW
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) April 23, 2021
Jefferson was a star receiver at LSU, where he caught 54 passes for 875 yards and six touchdowns as a sophomore and then 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns as a junior in an offense that set multiple records and won a national championship. Jefferson did not take long in the NFL to prove that his 2019 success was more than just a great college system.
In his first year with the Vikings, Jefferson set the rookie record for the most receiving yards in a season at 1,400, passing the 2003 mark of Anquan Boldin. He wasn't just great among rookies. He was great all-around. Only Diggs, Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins had more receiving yards than Jefferson.
What stood out the most was his immediate presence as a dangerous deep threat. He posted a perfect 99.9 ProFootballFocus grade on deep passes (20-plus yards). And that wasn't all. His 99.2 grade on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) ranked fourth and his short passing grade (0-9 yards) of 95.4 ranked seventh.
But, surely, there would be a sophomore slump? Wrong. Jefferson was even better in his second season in the NFL, catching 108 passes for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns. That 2021 campaign gave him the record for the most receiving yards (3,016) over the first two years of a career and tied him for the most receptions (196) with Michael Thomas.
And as was the case in 2020, Jefferson was dangerous all over the field. He had an intermediate grade of 99.9, which led the NFL and a deep grade of 98.3, which was 13th-best in the NFL. His overall receiving PFF grade of 90.1 was third in the league, trailing only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp.
Since he entered the league, no player has more receiving yards than his 3,200, per Stathead.
Stefon Diggs
Stats since trade: 238 receptions, 2,882 yards, 19 touchdowns
The Bills knew they were headed into a potential window in which they could compete. Tom Brady had just left New England, and they had a young quarterback on the rise. While they could have spent the draft pick on a young receiver, they could also go out and get the proven commodity to ensure there would be no growing pains with someone just entering the league.
Diggs had emerged into a standout wide receiver in Minnesota, hauling in at least 50 passes in each of his first five seasons in the NFL. But over the final two years with the Vikings, he really turned it up, catching 102 passes for 1,021 yards and six touchdowns in 2018 and 63 passes for 1,130 yards with six scores in 2019. The 26-year-old hadn't quite reached supernova status just yet, but he looked to be on the verge.
And the Bills? In 2019, they were coming off their second season with former first-round pick Josh Allen, who had shown marked improvement in his second year, throwing 20 touchdowns to nine interceptions with a 58.8 completion percentage and 3,089 passing yards, while leading the team to a 10-6 record. That year, John Brown (72 receptions for 1,060 yards) and Cole Beasley (67 receptions for 778 yards) were the team's leading receivers on a squad carried more by the defense than offense.
Enter Diggs. When Buffalo acquired the receiver from Minnesota, he and Allen found immediate chemistry and both their careers flourished. In 2020, Allen had a career year, finishing second in MVP voting as he completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 4,544 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Diggs led the league in both receptions and receiving yards, hauling in 127 passes for 1,535 yards with eight touchdown grabs.
Diggs had been used frequently as a deep-ball receiver in Minnesota, but in Buffalo's offense, he was targeted 90.1 percent of the time shorter than 20 yards down field and took advantage of the open fields, recording 474 yards after the catch, seventh-most in the NFL, per PFF.
That first year together, Diggs and Allen helped the Bills rank second in both total points and total yards.
Diggs showed no signs of slowing down in his second year with Buffalo. As teams targeted him more, his overall production slowed as he caught only 103 passes for 1,225 yards with 10 touchdowns, but he remained one of the most effective receivers in the league. PFF graded him as the 12th-best receiver in the NFL with a grade of 82.8.
And as defenses began to circle Diggs more as the guy to watch out for, other receivers on the team prospered. The Bills had five total receivers rack up more than 500 receiving yards, tied for the second-most receivers in a season with at least 500 yards each, per Stathead.
After the 2021 season, the Bills signed him to a four-year, $96 million extension that will keep him in Buffalo through 2026.
Since the trade, only four receivers have more receiving yards than Diggs: Jefferson, Adams and Kupp, and only Adams and Kupp have more receptions. He has been a fixture of a team in the midst of Super Bowl contention, and has been as reliable as they get. Jefferson might have more long-term upside, but Diggs has been the perfect fit for Buffalo the past two seasons, and should remain their top weapon for the foreseeable future.
