For the second straight season, the Bears are facing the biggest question of the NFL offseason: Will they trade Justin Fields and replace him by taking a new franchise QB with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft?
In 2023, they decided to keep Fields and move that top selection to the Panthers. While Carolina ended up with Bryce Young, Chicago got top wide receiver DJ Moore and four high draft picks.
That worked out great in terms of the return, but Fields didn't improve to the point of being their surefire, long-term starter in his third season. The decision to stick with Fields then also was made easier by worries about Young as a "safe" No. 1 pick.
Now, Fields is getting closer to his post-rookie contract with a lot still left to prove, and the alternative is more of an elite QB prospect, Caleb Williams. That has many believing the Bears will do the opposite of what they did in '23. When speaking at the NFL Scouting Combine, however, GM Ryan Poles made sure not to tip their hand.
Here's weighing the pros and cons to figure out whether moving on from Fields or moving out of their shot at Williams is the better decision.
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Should the Bears trade Justin Fields?
Why the Bears should trade Justin Fields
Fields hasn't yet shown he's a transcendent talent to end the franchise's perpetual quarterback concerns. He's made his mark as a dynamic, explosive runner, but the passing, efficiency, and durability are real questions. He flashed a little in the previous offense, but now he's in a new system again under former Seahawks coordinator Shane Waldron.
Even though the Bears are rebooting their scheme, they have an ample three-year sample size to better understand Fields' floor at the moment and his ceiling going forward. He's also going into his fourth season on his rookie contract, which means a bigger financial commitment will need to come via a fifth-year option or extension.
If the Bears have any doubt about Fields and whether they can win to their liking with him on the roster, they should trade him.
Why the Bears shouldn't trade Justin Fields
As DJ Moore said in so many words this offseason, there's no certainty that Williams or any other top QB prospect in the 2024 draft class will be better or equal to Fields. Fields at least has some positive NFL experience on which to build, and if he stays in Chicago, he can expect to get more key help beyond Moore thanks to the Bears' free-agent spending and draft capital.
The Bears are more than $78 million under the salary cap and hold the No. 1 and No. 9 overall picks along with four other selections. If they keep Fields, they would do so knowing they will convert the No. 1 pick for an additional haul of top picks.
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Should the Bears trade the No. 1 overall pick?
Why the Bears should trade the No. 1 pick
The Bears' best-case scenario with Fields is getting a first-rounder in return. It also could be a package of picks topped by a second-rounder. Given what moving No. 1 to the Panthers got them last year, trading the No. 1 pick again would be a path to getting more pure volume in return compared to trading Fields.
Without a QB need in the draft, the Bears could go to work to gather key assets to improve their offensive line, receiving corps, and defense while armed with more selection power. If there's just one taker willing to be this year's Panthers, the Bears might need to jump on the opportunity to keep accelerating their rebuild.
Why the Bears shouldn't trade the No. 1 pick
If the Bears think Williams (or Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels) will be a better NFL quarterback than Fields now and later, they should keep the first pick and just take that rookie QB. Fields might help get the Bears to the playoffs, but if they pass on Williams, they might miss out on the chance to have an elite talent at the league's most important position.
Chicago might be content settling for a decent return for Fields with the chance to get a third first-rounder, knowing it can still get Williams and top-flight talent at two other positions. Instead of having to pay Fields $20-$30 million annually for the foreseeable future, they could get Williams on a four-year deal that costs them around $39 million total, allowing for three more seasons of great financial flexibility to load up the roster.
Poles said the Bears will need to be blown away by the offer for the No .1 pick again to take the deal, but if the return for Fields is even in the same ballpark, the near future monetary break with the rookie can be the tiebreaker.
Final verdict: Justin Fields or Caleb Williams?
In the end, with Fields being an average QB and the Bears shaky on whether to pay him above-average veteran money, it's better to take the shot on Williams and reset to a rookie contract. There's enough interest in Fields to get a good deal done and enough reasons to believe Williams will be a major upgrade.
Thinking about those two scenarios should prompt the Bears to smartly lean toward trading Fields once they field the best offer for him.
