Four weeks ago, it's hard to imagine the Dolphins would be in the position they're in.
Miami was 7-3 heading into the bye week, and Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins were humming. After beating the Texans following the bye, the Dolphins moved to 8-3, riding a five-game winning streak.
They looked like legitimate AFC East contenders.
Since then, the Dolphins have dropped three straight. First it was a wire-to-wire loss against the 49ers, followed by a close game against the Chargers, then a heart-breaking last-second loss to the Bills that all but clinched the division for Buffalo.
Now 8-6, Miami finds itself among the "almost-haves" in the conference. The Dolphins are the No. 7 seed heading into Sunday's bout with the Packers. With the Jaguars' win over the Jets Thursday, they're 7-8 with a shot at the postseason. They're also battling with the Patriots for that final spot, although the Patriots' loss to the Bengals Saturday did help their cause.
Miami Dolphins playoff picture
The Dolphins don't have much of a shot at the division at this point, so they'll have to rely on a wild card berth to get in. Heading into Week 16, Miami is at 8-6, making them the seven seed with a myriad of teams fighting for that spot behind them.
The Patriots and Jaguars present the most real-and-present danger.
AFC East standings
| Team | Record |
| Buffalo Bills | 12-3 |
| Miami Dolphins | 8-6 |
| New England Patriots | 7-8 |
| New York Jets | 7-8 |
With three games remaining, the Bills have officially clinched the AFC East. That leaves the wild card. They're holding off the 7-8 Patriots, and Jets, both of whom lost their Week 16 games. If the Dolphins win this week, they'll be in a golden position in the wild card race.
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AFC wild card standings
| Team | Record |
| Baltimore Ravens* | 10-5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers* | 8-6 |
| Miami Dolphins* | 8-6 |
| New England Patriots | 7-8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-8 |
| New York Jets | 7-8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6-8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-8 |
* - Currently in postseason
With the Patriots' loss Saturday, the Dolphins have a great shot to extend their lead with a win Sunday. Regardless, however, the Dolphins and Patriots have a shot at each other next week. The Ravens and Chargers currently sit above them in the wild card standings, meaning three divisions have wild card representation right now.
Dolphins remaining games
The Dolphins have three games left on the year.
| Team | Record |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-8 |
| New England Patriots | 7-7 |
| New York Jets | 7-8 |
After their break from the conference against the Packers Sunday, the Dolphins close out the year with two AFC East games against the Patriots and Jets. As it stands, the Patriots game could be particularly impactful.
The Dolphins' directive is clear: Win and you're in. Winning two of three would likely be enough to do the job, but winning out clinches a spot for them. For Mike McDaniel and co., that would obviously be the ideal scenario. But with the way things have turned this season, it's clear nothing will be easy for Miami down the stretch.
What playoff tiebreakers are in the Dolphins' favor?
The Dolphins beat the team that's still a game ahead of them, the Ravens, at Baltimore in Week 2. They also beat the Patriots at home in Week 1; a Week 17 rematch in New England looms.
The Dolphins lost to the Chargers in Week 14. They also lost their first meeting with the Jets in New York in Week 5; that rematch is set for Week 18 in Miami. The Bengals (9-4) are no longer in wild-card position with the Ravens losing, but it's worth nothing the Bengals also beat the Dolphins, in Cincinnati in Week 4.
