The Cowboys entered Week 17 looking likely to end up as the No. 5 seed in the NFC. However, a few lucky breaks have set them up to potentially earn multiple home playoff games.
Dallas earned a controversial victory over the Lions in Week 17, during which Detroit was called for an illegal touching penalty despite offensive lineman Taylor Decker appearing to report to the officials. That helped the Cowboys to earn a one-point victory over the Lions and put them a half-a-game back of the Eagles in the NFC East standings.
Not much was made of that, as the Eagles were expected to beat the lowly Cardinals. However, Arizona put together a strong performance against Philadelphia's lackluster defense and earned a 35-31 victory to put Dallas back on top of the NFC East.
| Place | Team | Record |
| 1 | Cowboys | 11-5 |
| 2 | Eagles | 11-5 |
| 3 | Giants | 5-11 |
| 4 | Commanders | 4-12 |
Now, the Cowboys are looking to close out the division in Week 18. It should be easy enough for them to do so, as they need only beat the Commanders — who they thrashed 45-10 on Thanksgiving — to earn the divisional crown.
Still, it remains possible that the Cowboys could slip up, much like the Eagles did last week. If that happens, they could fall out of first place in the NFC East or at least squander a chance to lock up the NFC's No. 2 seed.
Here's what to know about Dallas' seeding options for the 2024 NFL postseason as the Cowboys get ready for the final week of the season.
LIVE: Updated NFL standings, playoff scenarios for Week 18
Cowboys playoff picture
The Cowboys entered Week 18 with the possibility of being either the No. 2, 3 or 5 seed in the NFC during the 2024 NFL playoffs. They clinched the No. 2 seed by beating the Commanders to retain control of the NFC East.
Below is a look at all of the seeding possibilities the Cowboys faced entering Week 18.
How the Cowboys can clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC
The Cowboys can most easily clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed by winning, as that would guarantee them the NFC East title. It would also guarantee that Detroit cannot pass Dallas in the standings, as the Cowboys own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions from their 20-19 win in Week 17.
However, the Cowboys can also achieve their desired result by tying the Commanders and seeing the Lions and Eagles both lose or tie their Week 18 contests. There haven't been any ties during the 2023 NFL season to date, so that seems unlikely. Nonetheless, it remains possible.
The Cowboys have little room for error if they lose. They would need both the Lions and Eagles to lose outright to hold onto the No. 2 seed if the Commanders manage to upset them in the final week of the season.
How the Cowboys can clinch the No. 3 seed in the NFC
It will be difficult for the Cowboys to clinch the NFC's No. 3 seed, but not impossible. The most likely path to them earning the 3-seed would involve the Cowboys and Eagles both losing and the Lions winning. That would allow Detroit to leapfrog Dallas in the standings while ensuring that the Cowboys still win the division.
The only other way that this could happen is if the Lions win, the Cowboys tie and the Eagles either lose or tie against the Giants in the final week of the season. As mentioned, ties are rare, so it seems that the former scenario is the only realistic one that would give Dallas the 3-seed instead of the 2-seed.
How the Cowboys can clinch the No. 5 seed in the NFC
The Cowboys would have to lose control of the NFC East to fall to the No. 5 seed where the Eagles are currently stationed. That would involve Dallas losing against the Commanders while seeing the Eagles beat or tie the Giants or having Cowboys tie the Commanders and the Eagles beat the Giants.
NFL.com gives the Cowboys an 89 percent chance to win the NFC East entering Week 18, so that means the team has just an 11 percent chance to be the No. 5 seed. Stranger things have happened, but it seems like Dallas is on track to host at least one home game during the 2024 postseason.
POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Browns, Steelers climb as Dolphins, Eagles, Seahawks drop for Week 18
Cowboys clinching scenarios
To recap, here are the clinching scenarios for the Cowboys for each seed:
Cowboys clinch No. 2 seed with:
- Cowboys win OR
- Cowboys tie AND Lions tie or loss AND Eagles tie or loss OR
- Cowboys loss AND Lions loss AND Eagles loss
Cowboys clinch No. 3 seed with:
- Cowboys tie AND Lions win AND Eagles tie or loss
- Cowboys loss AND Lions win AND Eagles loss
Cowboys clinch No. 5 seed with:
- Cowboys loss AND Eagles win or tie
- Cowboys tie AND Eagles win
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Cowboys potential playoff opponents
The Cowboys had seven potential opponents they could have faced entering Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. They will officially play the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round of the postseason after the Cowboys won, the Packers won and the Rams won to clinch the No. 6 seed over the Packers.
Below is a look at all of the potential playoff opponents the Cowboys could have played entering the final week of the season.
Potential 2-seed opponents
- Green Bay Packers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New Orleans Saints
- Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys could face a plethora of teams if they are the No. 2 seed, but the Packers are their most likely opponent. They are currently the No. 7 seed in the playoff race and can clinch a playoff berth with a win. At that point, it would only be a matter of whether Dallas would face Green Bay or Los Angeles if the Packers win.
If the Packers lose, the picture gets a lot murkier, as the Seahawks, Buccaneers, Saints and Vikings could all end up being the No. 7 seed. Of that bunch, the Cowboys would probably like to get one of the NFC South teams, as that division has been the weakest in the NFL this season, but it would have the edge on the Seahawks and Vikings as well.
Potential 3-seed opponents
- Los Angeles Rams
- Green Bay Packers
The No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff race can only be the Rams or the Packers. The Rams have the inside track for that position, as they can clinch it with a win or a tie. If they lose, however, the Packers can swoop in and take it with a win by virtue of their head-to-head victory over the Rams from earlier in the season.
The Cowboys beat the Rams 43-20 earlier in the season, but that was before Los Angeles' hot streak, during which it has won six of seven games. Dallas hasn't played Green Bay this season but has lost four consecutive games against the Packers dating back to 2017.
Potential 5-seed opponents
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New Orleans Saints
- Atlanta Falcons
If the Cowboys end up as the No. 5 seed, they will face the winner of the NFC South on the road. The NFC South is the only division in the NFL that may send a sub-.500 team to the postseason, so this isn't necessarily bad news for Dallas.
At present, the Buccaneers (8-8) are favored to win the division. They need only beat the Panthers in Week 18 to wrap that up. But if the Bucs lose, the Cowboys will play the winner of the Saints-Falcons game in the first week of the postseason.
