The Commanders had their shot at redemption after tying the Giants on the road two weeks ago. They were hosting their NFC East rival in a pivotal NFC matchup back in Landover on Sunday night.
They were unable to capitalize on their chances.
Washington lost 20-12 as a controversial penalty and subsequent no-call in the New York red zone late in the game cost the Commanders a shot at tying the game in the final minute. The defeat dropped Washington to 7-6-1 on the year and moved New York up to 8-5-1 and into the second NFC wild-card spot.
The NFC wild-card race still has the Commanders in the third wild-card spot, but the pressure is on for the rest of the year as the Lions and Seahawks continue to linger with a shot at closing in on the spot.
Here's a look at the Commanders' playoff chances following their loss to the Giants on Sunday.
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Where do the Commanders stand in the NFC playoff picture?
Even with the loss, the Commanders only dropped to the seventh seed in the NFC playoff picture, still ahead of the Lions and the Seahawks with that tie being the difference between the 7-7 records of Detroit and Seattle.
That tie keeps them a half-game up on the two NFC foes, and keeps them just one game behind the Giants in the wild-card race.
What playoff tiebreakers are in the Commanders' favor?
The Commanders are in a unique situation where they are unlikely to run into a tie with any other team besides the Giants. Due to the tie on their record, Washington could have the same number of wins as another team and still get the edge due to the tie and not an extra loss, unless any of the other teams add a tie the rest of the season.
Should New York and Washington wind up tied at the end of the season, New York would have the tiebreaker against them with the 1-0-1 head-to-head record. No other tiebreakers would be applicable since head-to-head is the first tiebreak used by the league to determine wild-card spots.
MORE: How do ties work in NFL playoff standings?
What games are left on the Commanders' schedule?
The stakes were high for Washington in Week 15, not only because of what it meant for their chances in the playoff race compared to New York, but also because of the gauntlet the rest of the year. The Commanders hit the road to face the 49ers in Week 16, host the Browns in Week 17 and host the Cowboys in Week 18.
The remaining opponents have a combined record of 26-16, and two have already clinched spots in the playoffs. According to FiveThirtyEight's game projections, Washington is an underdog in each game.
How good are the Commanders' wild-card chances now?
But it's not just about who Washington plays the rest of the season. It's who their opponents face the rest of the year. Here's a look at the remaining teams realistically still vying for the last two wild-card spots.
| New York | Washington | Detroit | Seattle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 16 | at Vikings (11-3) | at 49ers (10-4) | at Panthers (5-9) | at Chiefs (11-3) |
| Week 17 | vs. Colts (4-9-1) | vs. Browns (6-8) | vs. Bears (3-11) | vs. Jets (7-7) |
| Week 18 | at Eagles (13-1) | vs. Cowboys (10-4) | at Packers (5-8) | vs. Rams (4-9) |
| W-L (Pct) | 28-13-1 (.667) | 26-16 (.619) | 13-28 (.317) | 22-19 (.537) |
The first thing that stands out is that only one team has what could be considered an easy schedule the rest of the year, and that's the Lions. Detroit doesn't play a team with a winning record or realistic wild-card aspirations. On top of that, the Lions, winners of six of their past seven games, are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
The Giants' schedule certainly isn't favorable, but the Vikings have shown they have some issues despite clinching the NFC North, and the Colts just blew a 33-point lead to said Vikings. By the time the Giants face the Eagles, Philadelphia might be resting starters with the No. 1 seed locked up and eyes on staying healthy for the playoffs.
The Seahawks' schedule is a mixed bag. Playing on the road in Kansas City? Good luck. The Jets have been inconsistent this year, but are fighting for an AFC wild-card spot, giving them plenty of motivation to play hard down the stretch. And the Rams have been awful, and give the Seahawks what looks — on paper — like an easy game to help bolster their playoff odds.
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Based on winning percentage, New York is the only team with a tougher schedule left than Washington. But the Week 15 result means that the Giants can win just one game down the stretch and stay ahead of the Commanders so long as Washington doesn't win out.
As for the other two spots, Washington needs to essentially finish with the same record or better than Detroit and Seattle in those last three games. If Washington, Detroit and Seattle all win two of the last three, Washington goes to the playoffs. But that could be easier said than done with how the remaining schedules are shaping up. The pressure is on for the Commanders to finish strong, or watch one of these remaining two teams pass them in the playoff race.
