When Detroit travels to Kansas City to open Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season on Thursday night in the U.S., it will be one buzzy new NFC contender vs. the reigning Super Bowl champion. The Lions are consensus favorites to make the playoffs and win the NFC North. The Chiefs are, unsurprisingly, the consensus favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
As Patrick Mahomes begins a march toward a third ring, he might not have go-to tight end Travis Kelce (knee) to boost the receiving corps. He already won't have help from the Chiefs' best defensive player, holdout Chris Jones. Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (knee) also might miss the game.
For the Lions, they don't have any real injury concerns, but Jared Goff has a thin receiving corps with second-year wideout Jameson Williams suspended. They also will be counting on a young, improving defense to rise to the occasion vs. Mahomes.
With all that in mind, here's a betting breakdown of the matchup.
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Lions vs. Chiefs odds, spread, over/under
Odds courtesy of 10bet, trusted betting partner of BetOnSports, which allows you to compare the best offers, promos and odds in the UK.
- Spread: Chiefs -4.5 (10/11) | Lions +4.5 (10/11)
- Over/Under: OVER 53.5 (10/11) | UNDER 53.5 (10/11)
- Moneyline: Lions 19/10| Chiefs 4/9
The line has shifted two points from close to a touchdown with the Kelce uncertainty, which also had the related effect on the total. The Chiefs tend to struggle with big numbers home or away but tend to take care of smaller ones with Mahomes.
Should you bet Chiefs against the spread?
The number suggests the Chiefs will be challenged with some defensive issues against a Lions offense fronted by an elite blocking line. They also are being celebrated as Super Bowl champs at home and Goff was notoriously a shaky QB on the road last season.
Detroit is enjoying a great youth movement with some key veteran components, but in prime time under this big of a spotlight is a new experience for Dan Campbell's team. Andy Reid's club is used to the attention, and he always has his team ready when it has extra time to prepare. Case in point? Kansas. City has won eight straight season-openers and is 4-1 against the spread in Week 1 with Patrick Mahomes under center.
chandThe Chiefs are a good bet to win by a TD at home.
Our Pick: Chiefs -4.5
Should you bet Lions-Chiefs OVER?
Any number above 50 combined points suggests a shootout. There's a lot of offensive firepower on the field and plenty of defensive liability with no Chris Jones. Expect the pass rushes to be held in check with both offensive lines delivering a strong night.
With or without Kelce, the Chiefs will buy Mahomes enough time to unlock some big plays. The Lions also are set to be aggressive with their passing game, now featuring a heavy dose of rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Seeing the total go down just a little is enough of an opening to lean on the game living up to expectations.
Our Pick: OVER 52.5
Best Lions vs. Chiefs prop bet on BetOnSports via 10bet
Chiefs WR Skyy Moore anytime touchdown (6/4)
Regardless of Kelce's and Kadarius Toney's availabilities, Moore will be busy in the slot. He should be peppered with enough targets from Mahomes to catch five passes with a floor of 50 yards. We're playing the over which means at least four touchdowns for Kansas City. Someone has to score and among the options at Mahomes' disposal, 6/4 odds on Moore provides solid value.
Mahomes should hit at least 250 yards, and asking for 20 percent of that passing production isn't a lot given Moore's newfound significance with JuJu Smith-Schuster gone.
