ESPN NFL Draft analysts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have differing opinions on Texas running back Bijan Robinson.
"Is he Saquon?" Kiper asked on an ESPN teleconference on April 12. "I don't think he is."
"I think he’s special," McShay told Sporting News on a teleconference on April 19. "I see a lot of Saquon in him. I think he’s even a little more complete."
Despite their differences, Kiper and McShay agree that Robinson will be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Robinson rushed for 3,410 yards with the Longhorns the last three seasons, which ranks fourth behind program legends and first-round picks Ricky Williams (6,279), Cedric Benson (5,540) and Earl Campbell (4,443).
Williams, Benson and Campbell all rushed for at least 6,000 yards in the NFL, too. Robinson has the talent to be a next-level talent, but given the recent history of first-round running backs in the NFL, is he worth the first-round price?
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Bijan Robinson: Next Saquon Barkley? Christian McCaffrey? Both?
Robinson rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 TDs for the Longhorns in 2022 and earned Consensus All-American honors, and McShay pointed out that was behind an offensive line that had three true freshmen.
At the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, Robinson’s skillset was compared to two running backs with 4,000-plus career rushing yards in New York's Saquon Barkley and San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey, who were top-10 picks in the NFL Draft.
A closer look at how those three running backs compared at the NFL Combine:
| PLAYER | HT | WT | 40 | 10 | VERT. |
| Saquon Barkley | 6-0 | 233 | 4.4 | 1.54 | 41 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5-11 | 202 | 4.48 | 1.52 | 37.5 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5-11 | 215 | 4.46 | 1.52 | 37 |
Those numbers suggest Robinson is a sort of hybrid between Barkley and McCaffrey, and McShay believes Robinson’s running style translates into first-round value.
"I think he's a little more physical, consistently physical in terms of his running style," McShay said. “He had 91 forced missed tackles last year. The next closest was Frank Gore Jr. with 77. He's a guy at 215 pounds who will stiff arm you and utilize his size and contact balance but also has the sharp cutting ability and body control that you rarely see."
Robinson also averaged 20 catches per season at Texas, and he averaged 13.4 yards per catch with eight TDs. That is where the comparisons to McCaffrey have come in. McShay said Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told him, “He's as good as any back I've been around in terms of catching the football."
"I see the Saquon and I see the McCaffrey and I've talked to several teams that would like to utilize him in more of a McCaffrey role where yes it's running back, but a lot of screens and put him in the slot and utilize him in that role."
First-round RBs in last 10 NFL Drafts
A total of 12 running backs have been drafted in the first round in the last 10 drafts. Ezekiel Elliott, the No. 4 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, has the most career rushing yards among the active running backs with 8,262. He is a free agent heading into 2024.
Here is a look at those running backs in order of year drafted:
| PLAYER | YEAR | PICK | NFL STATS |
| Todd Gurley | 2015 | 10 | 6,082 yards, 67 TDs |
| Melvin Gordon | 2015 | 15 | 6,462 yards, 55 TDs |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | 4 | 8,262 yards, 80 TDs |
| Leonard Fournette | 2017 | 4 | 4,478 yards, 34 TDs |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2017 | 8 | 4,726 yards, 38 TDs |
| Saquon Barkley | 2018 | 2 | 4,249 yards, 29 TDs |
| Rashaad Penny | 2018 | 27 | 1,918 yards, 13 TDs |
| Sony Michel | 2018 | 31 | 3,423 yards, 18 TDs |
| Josh Jacobs | 2019 | 24 | 4,740 yards, 40 TDs |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2020 | 32 | 1,622 yards, 11 TDs |
| Najee Harris | 2022 | 24 | 2,234 yards, 14 TDs |
| Travis Etienne | 2022 | 25 | 1,225 yards, 5 TDs |
Who will draft Bijan Robinson?
Sporting News' projects Robinson will be drafted by the Detroit Lions with the No. 18 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kiper and McShay also have Robinson landing with Detroit in their latest Mock Draft with ESPN.com. That's not quite the top-10 shelf that Barkley and McCaffrey were drafted.
"I do think he's a really good all-around back who deserves to go in the first round based on his talent," Kiper told SN. "I have him as the ninth-best player. I don't think he will go to Buffalo or Dallas, but I think he will be there in the 18-19 range where Detroit and Tampa Bay are picking."
Kiper and McShay also did an alternating three-round mock draft, and in that scenario Robinson landed with the Eagles.
"I have him as the No. 2 player in this draft.," McShay said. “I can't speak highly enough about him. I think Philly should take him at No. 10. I don't think they will."
McShay, however, offered a surprise scenario that could happen on draft day. Would Cowboys owner Jerry Jones make a splash and draft the Texas running back in the first round?
"I keep saying the team to watch out for Dallas is No. 26," McShay said. "They're looking for that kind of guy to compliment Tony Pollard. Texas guy, bringing him in, I think it would be a home run for them but they would have to move up into the teens in order to do so."
