The Bengals have found ways to win without Joe Burrow, rattling off three consecutive wins after dropping Jake Browning's first NFL start in November.
The only obstacle for Browning to this point has been the Steelers. Pittsburgh got the better of the Washington product again on Saturday, forcing three interceptions in a blowout win over Cincinnati.
Thanks to some early-season struggles by the Bengals, the loss at Acrisure Stadium leaves Cincinnati with significantly reduced odds to make the playoffs. Nine wins very likely won't be enough to secure a wild-card spot this season, so the Bengals will have to scoreboard watch down the stretch while hoping they win two tough matchups over the next two weeks.
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Here's a look at the Bengals' playoff chances after Saturday's loss.
Bengals playoff picture
The Bengals come out of Saturday's game sitting 10th in the AFC at 8-7. After the early games on Sunday, they find themselves behind a logjam of 8-7 teams, including the Steelers, despite entering Week 16 leading all 8-6 wild-card teams.
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 1 | Ravens | 11-3 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 11-4 |
| 3 | Chiefs | 9-5 |
| 4 | Jaguars | 8-7 |
| 5 | Browns | 10-5 |
| 6 | Bills | 9-6 |
| 7 | Colts | 8-7 |
| 8 | Texans | 8-7 |
| 9 | Steelers | 8-7 |
| 10 | Bengals | 8-7 |
| 11 | Broncos | 7-8 |
Cincinnati has several head-to-head matchups that benefit the team. The Bengals beat the Bills and Colts, which would give the two tiebreaking edges over both teams. They also beat the Jaguars, should Jacksonville fall out of its current AFC South lead.
Other tiebreakers, however, are not as favorable. The Bengals lost to the Texans. Should they wind up tied with either the Browns or Steelers, Cincinnati would fall behind either of them. The Bengals have already lost to each of them, ensuring they can do no better than have a split series against them. And Cincinnati has already guaranteed the worst AFC North divisional record.
The Bengals' 3-7 conference record is a concern in certain tiebreaker scenarios, but right now, Cincinnati is barely tied for a playoff spot. They will likely need to win their final two games to have realistic hopes of a playoff berth this season.
Bengals remaining schedule
The Bengals won't have any easy games left on the schedule. Cincinnati heads on the road to play against the Chiefs before ending the year at home against the Browns.
| Week | Opponent | Bengals' win odds |
| 17 | at Chiefs | 31.4% |
| 18 | vs. Browns | 64.8% |
Cincinnati has had some thrilling matchups with the Chiefs in recent years, but the model doesn't like the Bengals' chances against Kansas City without Joe Burrow. Browning's struggles in Pittsburgh outline how tall of a task it could be to win at Arrowhead Stadium with Ja'Marr Chase's availability also uncertain.
The model currently favors the Bengals by four points in a rematch with the Browns in Cincinnati. However, it's worth noting the Bengals have struggled more with the Browns than other teams in recent years.
Bengals playoff chances
Per Sporting News' projection model, the Bengals entered Saturday with a 23.1 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Cincinnati had only a 2.8 percent chance after falling to the Steelers in Week 13, but three straight wins has vaulted the Bengals all the way up to a near one-in-four chance.
Here's a look at the playoff odds without the Ravens and Chiefs, who are both all but guaranteed to win their respective divisions.
| Team | xW-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
| Dolphins | 12-5 | 78.2% | 21.6% | 99.9% |
| Jaguars | 10-7 | 59.0% | 28.8% | 87.8% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 3.0% | 72.5% | 75.4% |
| Bills | 10-7 | 21.8% | 41.3% | 63.1% |
| Texans | 10-7 | 20.5% | 41.8% | 62.3% |
| Colts | 10-7 | 20.5% | 37.2% | 57.7% |
| Broncos | 9-8 | 0.6% | 25.5% | 26.1% |
| Bengals | 10-7 | 0.0% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Steelers | 8-9 | 0.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
The odds are still considerably low compared to other AFC teams. A major issue for the Bengals is the remaining schedule. The Bengals all but certainly have to go at least 2-1 over the final stretch to have a chance. The Bengals also have several tiebreakers going against them in their divisional record and lackluster AFC record (3-6 to date).
The head-to-head tiebreakers should still help, but there could be scenarios that still play out unfavorably for the Bengals given their slow start to the season and given the rest of the season for other playoff contenders. The Bengals have the seventh-most difficult strength of schedule based on rest-of-season win percentage left in 2023.
Here's how other AFC wild-card foes rank:
| Team | Opponents | Win Percentage |
| Dolphins | Cowboys, Ravens, Bills | .690 (1) |
| Steelers | Bengals, Seahawks, Ravens | .619 (5) |
| Texans | Browns, Titans, Colts | .524 (t-14) |
| Browns | Texans, Jets, Bengals | .500 (t-17) |
| Colts | Falcons, Raiders, Texans | .476 (t-19) |
| Bills | Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins | .429 (24) |
| Broncos | Patriots, Chargers, Raiders | .333 (t-29) |
| Jaguars | Buccaneers, Panthers, Titans | .333 (t-29) |
Should Cincinnati handle its own gauntlet, there could be enough chaos and favorable head-to-head tiebreakers to get the Bengals into the postseason. But that will be easier said than done given the schedule ahead for Cincinnati.
