It is only a matter of time until Joe Burrow's name is added to the list of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. He might even top the list.
The Bengals quarterback is extension-eligible this offseason, and it is widely expected that Cincinnati will retain the 2020 first overall pick that led the franchise to only its third-ever Super Bowl appearance and who has set both the team's single-season passing yardage and touchdown records.
The team, which has been owned by the Brown family since its inception, has never shied away from giving quarterbacks market-setting contracts. In 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second-highest paid player in the NFL with a six-year, $16.75 million deal. Carson Palmer was handed a huge extension that could pay him $118.75 million over nine years and Andy Dalton was signed to a six-year, $115 million extension back in 2014.
Since tearing his ACL during his rookie season, Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Over the past two seasons, only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert have more passing yards than Burrow's 9,086, and Mahomes and Josh Allen are the only players with more passing touchdowns than Burrow's 69. Among quarterbacks with at least 30 starts, no one has completed passes at a higher rate than Burrow's 69.3 percent clip.
MORE: Why Bengals have no interest in trading Tee Higgins
What will Burrow's contract look like, and when could it be completed? Here's what you need to know.
Joe Burrow contract projection
Quarterbacks have already received some big contracts in 2023. This offseason, Geno Smith received a three-year, $105 million deal and Daniel Jones signed a four-year, $160 million contract. While neither contract will directly impact Burrow, they both reflect how much the quarterback market has escalated.
Burrow could wind up resetting the market for quarterback contracts. Yahoo Sports insider Charles Robinson predicted Burrow will receive between $55 million and $60 million per year, which would make him the league's highest-paid quarterback.
Back on Feb. 8, salary cap expert Andre Perrotta proposed Burrow would receive an eight-year, $408 million deal that features more than $142 million fully guaranteed at signing and over $240 million in total guarantees. The deal would give him a signing bonus of $60 million and an average annual value of $51 million.
Here's a proposed contract extension for Joe Burrow:
— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) February 9, 2023
8yrs/$408M
$142,635,000 fully GRTD at Signing $240,635,000 in total guarantees
$51M AAV
$60M Signing Bonus
2023 Cap Hit = $18,980,025 ($7,464,982 increase from currently scheduled $11.5M Cap Hit)
2023 Cash Spend= $61.01M pic.twitter.com/4BZzaqcgPm
Until pen is put to paper, there is no telling what the numbers will be. There has been hopeful optimism among some that Burrow might look to take less money than market value in order to help keep weapons like Tee Higgins, who is a free agent after the 2023 season, and Ja'Marr Chase, who can hit free agency after the 2026 campaign.
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Count Chase among those that expect to see Burrow work out a team-friendly deal to keep his star receivers around.
"At the end of the day, I don't think Joe is really too worried about how much money he's going to make because he's already making a tremendous amount," Chase said ahead of the Super Bowl. "But it'll work out for itself. It'll all work. I think Joe knows what he wants and how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his weapons around him. And I think that's the biggest part for him."
Cincinnati director of player personnel Duke Tobin told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team.
“I think Joe understands better than most people,” Tobin said. “That’s what makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture. Not only after he takes the snap from the center but when he’s walking around the locker room and going to practice. Working out in the offseason. Joe sees the big picture. That’s what makes him great.”
The rest of the NFL world is left waiting for what the deal could look like, but Tobin told The Athletic that the contract might be starting to come into shape.
"I think we’ve got an idea of what that deal is going to look like,” Tobin said, “whether it’s done in completion or not.”
Joe Burrow extension timeline
The Bengals ideally would want to have an idea of how much they will be paying their quarterback, and what his long-term cap hit might be sooner than later. But that doesn't mean it will be completed soon.
While the deal is expected to be completed this offseason, The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. reported that the Bengals will need to have guaranteed money saved in an escrow account to pay out top players like Burrow and potentially receivers like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. And if the Bengals wait to make the agreement until after March 31, they have until March 31, 2024, to have that money in the account.
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Conversations have been ongoing, as Tobin told reporters at the NFL combine, and "sooner is better."
"Maybe it’s the first piece to come. Maybe it's the last. But we'll work towards it. We're not going to rush the process,” Tobin said. “It’s of vital importance to us. It’s important to Joe, and we’ll work to try and get it accomplished.”
Highest-paid NFL quarterbacks
Burrow is set to become one of the highest-paid quarterbacks, if not the highest in the league.
Here is a look at some of the other major quarterback contracts in the league.
Patrick Mahomes
Back in September 2020, Mahomes signed an extension that would mean he was paid out $502.631 million over 12 years if all his incentives pay out. The contract included only $141.428 million in guarantees over the 12 seasons.
The incentives in the deal to achieve the full amount include $1.25 million each year starting this past season for taking the Chiefs to the Super Bowl and $1.25 million for winning the MVP. So far, Mahomes is off to a hot start, having earned his full incentives.
Over the course of Mahomes' deal, here's a look at his cap hits:
| Year | Cap hit |
|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.347 million |
| 2021 | $7.433 million |
| 2022 | $35.79 million |
| 2023 | $49.29 million |
| 2024 | $44.29 million |
| 2025 | $46.29 million |
| 2026 | $41.95 million |
| 2027 | $59.95 million |
| 2028 | $44.45 million |
| 2029 | $44.95 million |
| 2030 | $50.45 million |
| 2031 | $52.45 million |
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Because of the incentives and the length of the term, Mahomes' contract is viewed as among the more team-friendly in the league, even if it has the potential to pay him out the most of any single deal in North American sports history. The length of the contract means he will be unable to get a new deal even as quarterbacks continue to pass him in salary, and the contract being heavily incentive-based reduces the cap hit.
Deshaun Watson
There has been much ado made about Watson's contract, particularly as it pertains to the stalled extension negotiations of another AFC North quarterback.
Watson's deal is decidedly not team friendly. He signed a five-year, $230 million deal with the Browns that is fully guaranteed. It is the most amount of money fully guaranteed in an NFL deal by a considerable margin.
Here is a look at the cap hits on Watson's deal:
| Year | Cap hit |
|---|---|
| 2022 | $9,395,500 |
| 2023 | $54,993,000 |
| 2024 | $54,993,000 |
| 2025 | $54,993,000 |
| 2026 | $54,993,000 |
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At the combine, Browns general manager Andrew Berry said it was a possibility that the team might try to restructure his contract, as it would currently take 24.5 percent of the Browns' cap space in 2023. The options to alleviate that cap hit are still limited to either accepting larger cap hits down the road, adding void years to his contract or by extending him again and continuing to push the money into later years.
Aaron Rodgers
The Green Bay signal-caller — who could soon be on the move — has a strange contract that is unlikely to be replicated since Burrow is presumably not in any sort of risk at retirement in the near future.
Rodgers signed a three-year, $150 million extension in March 2022, with $101.5 million guaranteed. The deal includes two void years to help spread out the cap hit, which will mean that in 2025 and 2026, his team will be on the hook for some huge sums of money.
| Year | Cap hit |
|---|---|
| 2022 | $28,533,569 |
| 2023 | $31,623,568 |
| 2024 | $40,701,666 |
| 2025 | $59,301,666 |
| 2026 | $53,451,666 |
MORE: Projecting trade package for Rodgers to the Jets
Like Watson's deal, Rodgers' contract is not likely one the Bengals would like to use as a model for how to pay out Burrow. The best comp the team can likely hope for will be that Burrow takes a deal similar to Mahomes that guarantees he will be under center in Cincinnati for years to come, while giving the team plenty of options to reduce the impacts of a major salary cap hit.
