As the NFL Draft approaches, the Chicago Bears are on the clock. And all eyes are on them as the question continues to crop up: Will the Bears trade the No. 1 pick?
The answer, almost inevitably, seems to be yes. But Justin Fields doubters continue to wonder if it would behoove the Bears to move the 2021 11th overall pick instead. Fields, who threw for 17 touchdowns and rushed for eight more, has quarterback of the future potential. But the Bears would undoubtedly like to be sure heading into a 2023 season that will be pivotal for their rebuild.
According to reports, the Bears are committed to Fields for next season. But with Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud staying atop most big boards, they're going to have suitors to trade the No. 1 pick to. Furthermore, with some of those suitors, they could still find themselves landing a top talent in this year's draft.
Fields has plenty of room for improvement. The problem for the Bears is, the roster does too. Every Fields stat last year comes with the caveat he had an offensive line that, while decent last year, is in transition and a receiving corps headlined by Darnell Mooney.
MORE: Would the Bears really trade Justin Fields to pick Bryce Young?
With that in mind, the Bears can get more premium picks for No. 1 in this year's draft. Here's a look at the kind of compensation they could expect for Fields vs. the 2023 No. 1 overall pick.
Justin Fields stats
Fields had an incredible rushing season in 2022, but his passing stats inarguably left a lot to be desired.
| Stat | Total | Rank among QBs |
| Comp. % | 60.4 | 31st |
| Passing yards | 2,242 | 26th |
| Pass TDs | 17 | T-16th |
| INTs | 11 | T-10th |
| Passer rating | 85.2 | 25th |
| QBR | 53.9 | 17th |
| Yards per attempt | 7.1 | T-15th |
| Rushing yards | 1,143 | 1st |
| Rush TDs | 8 | 2nd |
While part of that is clearly a surrounding cast that wasn't up to snuff last season, Fields does have work to do throwing the ball. However, it's difficult to evaluate a player whose leading receiver last year was his tight end who finished with just 50 catches on the year.
Justin Fields trade compensation
There isn't a one-to-one comparison for the Bears trading Fields. Despite his potential being seen, Fields still isn't a sure thing and teams could be reluctant to trade the farm for a quarterback who is still developing.
With that being said, there's tremendous upside to Fields, who was electric down the stretch last season. He is trending in the right direction and a better cast would undoubtedly work wonders for him. Most importantly, with his fifth year option, a team that would trade for Fields gets up to three years of relatively cheap exclusivity.
MORE: Bears' best trade options: Colts, Panthers & Texans stand out
An imperfect comparison for a Justin Fields-like trade is that of Josh Rosen, who completed 55.2 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 14 starts as a rookie in 2018 with the Cardinals before being traded to the Dolphins for a second and fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft.
Rosen, however, was traded after Kyler Murray was selected, limiting the Cardinals' leverage. With what Fields has shown and the possibility of getting Young or Stroud, the cost for Fields would have to be steeper.
Projected trade value: A first round pick and a Day 3 (4th or 5th)
Potential suitors: Jets, Commanders, Giants
The Bears trading Fields would be nearly unprecedented, so it's hard to project a package for him. A first round and Day 2 (2nd or 3rd round) pick would likely be too rich for most teams, particularly in this QB class. But if any team is completely enamored with Fields, there is a chance they decide to stretch and make a deal.
Teams in the middle to end of the first round are the most likely to make a play for Fields. That could include the Jets (No. 13), Commanders (No. 16), or even Giants (No. 26) if negotiations with Daniel Jones falter. While it isn't out of the question to see a team like the Raiders, Panthers, or Falcons making a play for Fields, the price would have to be right for their pick compensation and could include the Bears sweetening the pot somehow.
MORE: NFL Mock Draft 2023, 2-round edition
No. 1 pick trade compensation
It's a bit easier to figure what the Bears might get for the No. 1 overall pick, as there is some more clear precedent for it.
With No. 1, teams are still getting a guaranteed players. The difference is it's the player they ultimately want. It would involve leapfrogging the Texans and, for a QB-needy team, landing who they perceive as the best QB in the draft.
Clearly, the best suitor in this case is the Colts, who would be cutting a rival off at the knees while getting their choice of quarterback. Additionally, Colts owner Jim Irsay is on record boasting about Alabama QB Bryce Young. His admiration for the QB coupled with the fact that Young likely won't be available to them, even with the No. 4 pick, could tip the scales in Indy.
The most recent trade of the No. 1 pick came in 2016, when the Rams traded their first, two seconds, and third in the 2016 draft and their 2017 first and third for the Titans' first overall, fourth, and sixth-round picks. The Rams took Jared Goff with that pick. The Rams, of course, were picking eighth in that draft.
Every trade scenario for No. 1 overall is going to look different, but the assumption should be whoever the Bears are going to trade with will also require a top-10 pick.
MORE: C.J. Stroud urges Bears to stick with Justin Fields: 'That's his team'
Projected trade value: A top 10 pick, a Day 2 pick, a two future first round picks
Potential suitors: Texans, Colts, Falcons, Panthers
With draft picks being the remarkably coveted commodities they are, trading for the No. 1 overall pick is going to be difficult. The Cardinals will most likely sit at No. 3 (if it's up to them they may like to trade back) with Kyler Murray already locked in. But beyond that, there are several teams who could be jockeying for Young or Stroud.
That price might seem to be unreasonable, and it's possible it is. But if one of the teams listed above -- three of whom have a new head coach this year -- find sustained success with Young or Stroud, that is going to be the cost.
