Aaron Rodgers has talked at length about the possibility of an improbable comeback from an Achilles injury suffered in the season opener. But a crushing Jets loss to the Dolphins in Week 15 might be what ultimately stops him from returning to the field.
New York's playoff hopes were on the line coming into a road clash with the AFC East-leading Dolphins. The Jets sat at 5-8 at a time where all other wild-card contenders had at least seven wins. Miami had already dominated the Jets 34-13 in their earlier meeting.
But still, news on Saturday gave Jets' fans at least a glimmer of hope. It was reported Rodgers was expected to be medically cleared ahead of the team's Week 16 clash with the Commanders, potentially giving him a chance to provide some stability at quarterback down a stretch where the Jets faced winnable games against the Commanders and Patriots, as well as a crucial wild-card showdown with the Browns.
It feels like any chance Rodgers had of coming back went out the door on Sunday. The Jets were dominated in all facets of the game by the Dolphins, losing 30-0 while getting outgained 290-103 in total yards and 36:21 to 23:39 in time of possession.
MORE: What happened to Zach Wilson?
And those playoff hopes? Officially gone. Along with New York's loss, the Browns and Texans both won, officially eliminating the Jets from playoff contention.
Here's why Rodgers seems unlikely to return to the Jets this season.
Will Aaron Rodgers return in 2023?
Per reports, Rodgers would consider a return to play if the Jets still had a chance of making the playoffs. That is officially out of the picture.
But even if Rodgers was still thinking about coming back, even if just to prove a point that he can pull off what many had deemed to be a medical impossibility, it starts to be about risk assessment. He is 40 years old and is coming off an experimental procedure to repair a ligament crucial to a quarterback. Taking any hits will feel risky.
The Jets' offensive line showed on Sunday it is not capable of protecting its quarterbacks effectively. Zach Wilson was consistently crushed before he ultimately left the game with a concussion. He dropped back to pass 15 times on Sunday. He was sacked four times for a loss of 37 yards.
Dolphins recover the strip sack at the one-yard line!
— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023
📺: #NYJvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/t3peI764ud
Trevor Siemian didn't fare much better, though he played for much of a second half during which the Dolphins rested their starters having led 24-0 at the half. He was sacked twice on 28 dropbacks for a loss of 19 yards.
And those sacks somehow don't do the Dolphins' pass-rush enough justice. Miami had 22 pressures on 43 total passing plays by New York for a whopping pressure rate of 51.2 percent. Those total pressures rank tied for fourth in a single game this season, per Stathead.
I don’t care about the injuries b/c everyone is dealing with them…this Jets OL isn’t putting up ANY resistance at all. Very disturbing performance
— Damien Woody (@damienwoody) December 17, 2023
MORE: Raheem Mostert joins exclusive company with 20th TD
When the Dolphins' starting defensive linemen were in the game, they were nearly on top of the Jets' quarterbacks. Per NFL NextGen Stats, the average pass rush distance between a player and quarterback at the time of a pass or sack is 4.53 yards. Three of the Dolphins' starters were below that mark, including Bradley Chubb (3.78 yards) and Christian Wilkins (3.67 yards). Zach Sieler was 4.6 yards out, the only Dolphins starter above the league average.
Protecting the quarterback is hardly a new problem for the Jets, either. Coming into the game, New York ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grade at 49.6, ahead of just the Steelers and Giants.
The offensive line has a few matchups coming up that aren't too bad. Its next game is against the Commanders (24th in pass-rush PFF grade) and ends the season against the Patriots (30th in pass-rush PFF grade). Sandwiched in the middle, however, is a game against the Browns, who rank second in the NFL, and boast star EDGE Myles Garrett, who has the highest pass-rush grade in the NFL, per PFF. That would seem to be an inadvisable matchup for Rodgers.
Jets coach Robert Saleh said a decision won't be made on Rodgers' return until they know whether he's officially been given the green light.
"There's no discussion to be had until he's actually cleared," Saleh said after the loss.
Rodgers might decide to return to the field just to prove that he could do it. But given the risk involved with sending him out in a lost season and the team's investment in Rodgers beyond 2023, the Jets might want to contemplate whether proving a point is worth it.
