At last, the 2022 NBA Draft day has finally arrived! After months of speculation around who will be picked first, how the selections will impact the short-term and long-term landscape of the NBA, and most important to us, how we can make some money in the betting market.
We have been providing detailed NBA Draft betting guides for weeks, and Sporting News NBA expert Kyle Irving has been hard at work with his mock draft and scouting reports. Now it's time to lock in our top five picks and provide some high-value position props so you can make your final draft-related bets with informed confidence.
We're on the clock, so let's get right to it and put some fresh caps on some prospects!
All odds listed are from DraftKings and FanDuel
2022 NBA Draft odds: Best bets for top picks, draft position props, and top 10 odds
No. 1 Pick (Orlando Magic): Jabari Smith, PF/C, Auburn (+1300)
We have seen absolute pandemonium from the No. 1 spot since Wednesday evening, featuring two conflicting Woj-bombs. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted at 8:41 a.m. ET. that Smith, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero would indeed be the firm 1-2-3 of the NBA Draft, and odds boards shifted in a fast and furious manner. Smith at No. 1 moved from -300 Wednesday, to off the DraftKings' board completely, to as high on some boards as -10000 after the tweet. When this article was published Thursday morning, Smith was -130 to go first.
As team boards finalize today, the 1-2-3 of the NBA Draft is increasingly firm, per sources: Jabari Smith to Orlando, Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City and Paolo Banchero to Houston.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022
But at 7:40 p.m., Woj dropped a whole different bomb. He tweeted that Banchero has joined Smith "under serious consideration to [be Orlando's] No. 1 overall pick, sources said. There's a real chance draft boards could get blown up at the top of the lottery."
Banchero has now jumped from +1000 at No. 1 earlier in the week to +250 Wednesday night, and then shockingly to a -210 favorite Thursday morning and now an overwhelming favorite at -5000. We have perhaps never seen so much chaos surrounding a Woj series of tweets. The Duke product has seen plenty of action for the top spot, and we honestly won't know what to expect until it's all said and done.
MORE: SN's NBA mock draft | Jabari Smith scouting report
For weeks, I have maintained that if the Magic keep the pick, Smith should be the guy — he provides the most value and checks the most boxes to satisfy Orlando's needs. Various degrees of uncertainty have swirled around the top pick, mostly due to the Magic brass being hush-hush. However, our bet remains on Auburn's pure-shooting and defensively versatile big man being the first to walk the NBA Draft stage.
Other possibilities: Banchero (-5000)
No. 2 Pick (Oklahoma City Thunder): Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga (-3500)
Like Smith at No. 1, Holmgren at No. 2 has gone from certainty to uncertainty to almost complete certainty again today. He was -350 to go second two weeks ago, then -145 last week, then -250 Wednesday night, and now -3500 Thursday morning. The Thunder have long been believed to grab the best available big man out of Smith and Holmgren, so it stands to reason that if Smith goes to Orlando we will see Holmgren in OKC blue.
MORE: Chet Holmgren scouting report
The Thunder have obvious needs in the shot-blocking and interior offensive categories, and Holmgren’s unicorn abilities on both ends make him a no-brainer as the consensus No. 2. He can handle the ball, pass intelligently, and shoot from distance (39 percent from deep), which almost seems unfair for a guy with a 7-6 wingspan. OKC fans should be excited at what the future holds with a player of this caliber joining forces with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If his mind and body can adapt to the physical nature of the NBA, Holmgren's upside could enter peak Kristaps Porzingis territory.
Other possibilities: Smith +1000, Paolo Banchero +1200
No. 3 Pick (Houston Rockets): Paolo Banchero, F, Duke (+300)
It was always you, Paolo. Banchero at No. 3 moved from the -500 to -550 range last week, then jumped up to -350 last night before he sporadically entered No. 1 pick territory in the early hours of Thursday. Since the Woj tweet, Banchero has reassumed his place as the commanding favorite at No. 3.
Ever since the Rockets traded Christian Wood to Dallas hours after Banchero worked out for them, the Duke product at No. 3 has felt like destiny. The 6-10, 250-pound forward scores with ease and plays with force and intelligence. He's got an NBA-ready body and instant-impact offensive skills. Sporting News' draft wiz Kyle Irving has repeatedly referred to Banchero as "the best player in this draft class."
MORE: Is Paulo Banchero the Safest Superstar Draft Prospect of this Class?
If you can find a site that features specific pick parlays, it would be prudent to bet an exact order parlay 1-2-3 — but even that would be a low potential payout at this point. At these odds, parlaying Smith at No. 1, Holmgren at No. 2, and Banchero at No. 3 would fetch you -555 in total parlay odds, or $18 on a $100 bet. Now is unfortunately not the time to jump in the shallow part of this draft pool.
Other possibilities: Smith +700, Holmgren +1200
No. 4 Pick (Sacramento Kings): Keegan Murray, F, Iowa (+150)
I recommended Murray at No. 4 two weeks ago when his odds there sat at +500. He then dropped to +175 last week, and now rests at +150 on draft day. Murray still feels like the Kings' pick here — he fits their most glaring positional need and might just be the best available player at this point anyway.
Sacramento general manager Monte McNair could still easily deal this pick — the Kings have made plenty of surprising moves in the past. Many mockers, including our own Kyle Irving, have Purdue guard Jaden Ivey going here. It just seems unlikely that Sac-town would bring in another guard on top of De'Aaron Fox and 2021 first-round pick Davion Mitchell, especially considering Ivey reportedly doesn't find Sac-town appealing.
NBA Draft 2022 presented by State Farm® will take place on Thursday, June 23 at 8 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) June 22, 2022
Below are the prospects who will be in attendance tomorrow night in the Green Room. pic.twitter.com/y6h2KnryB8
McNair already traded away a promising young guard in Tyrese Haliburton at the 2022 trade deadline, a move that landed Domantas Sabonis in Cali. The core objective now should be to find Sabonis some assistance scoring-wise, near the rim, and on the glass. At 6-8, 215 pounds, and with a diverse skill set on both ends of the floor, Murray can be that guy. Analysts this week have compared him to a young Al Horford or a potential John Collins, a face-up four with a fantastic basketball IQ.
Other possibilities: Jaden Ivey -200
No. 5 (Detroit Pistons): Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue (+225)
This seems to be where things get really interesting — Murray is at +130, Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin is +200 -- but I'm sticking with my guns and holding on to Ivey at +225 here. The Pistons would be ecstatic to couple franchise cornerstone and 2021 No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham with Ivey, who many analysts have said could ultimately be the best player in this draft class.
Murray would fit with Detroit here, too, especially after Detroit traded forward Jerami Grant to Portland on Wednesday. Ultimately, the Pistons will likely take whichever of the two is available at No. 5. Ivey just provides them with a second playmaker with explosive athleticism and scoring chops. Nothing seems certain here, but Ivey’s certainly the best player available if Murray goes fourth.
Other possibilities: Murray +130, Mathurin +200, Shaedon Sharpe +600, Dyson Daniels +800
NBA Draft 2022 odds: Player Draft Position Props
Keegan Murray UNDER 5.5 (-285)
I've been hammering this prop since it opened last week at -160, and I'm still fine with it despite the reduced payout. If the Kings end up drafting Ivey, the Pistons will almost assuredly draft Murray at No. 5. Jerami Grant provided Detroit with face-up scoring, athleticism, and defensive versatility at the four, and Murray can fill much of the void left from Grant's departure via trade to Portland yesterday. He might not have the massive ceiling Ivey possesses, but he can certainly be an immediate starter and contributor to an NBA squad that needs a four.
Dyson Daniels UNDER 7.5 (-170)
Last week, I was sure Indiana would select Kentucky wild card Shaedon Sharpe at No. 6. Since then, I'm more convinced the Pacers will take Daniels, a more proven professional prospect with less question marks. Even if the Pacers pick Sharpe (or Benny Mathurin), Daniels should be going to Portland at No. 7.
The Pacers and Blazers could both benefit from a lengthy wing who can defend as well as provide quick offense. Daniels demonstrated with the G League Ignite that he possesses versatile defensive chops and electric playmaking ability. At 6-8 with a 6-11 wingspan, Daniels can be a matchup problem on both ends of the floor. Rumblings around the Twittersphere have suggested that Sharpe will now fall out of the top seven (-185), and Daniels should be the No. 1 benefactor of such a fate.
MORE: Dyson Daniels Scouting Report
Johnny Davis OVER 9.5 (-260)
A lot of people hype Davis because of his scoring ability at the NCAA level – he’s even making commercials already – but I don’t like him to crack the top 10. New York might be interested in his playmaking ability at No. 11, but he could slip to the teens if the Knicks don’t bite.
MORE NBA DRAFT: Sporting News' top 60 players
Mark Williams UNDER 13.5 (-210)
Unders in the -200 to -300 range may seem unappealing, but not if it looks like a sure thing. The Hornets need a big man at No. 13 who can protect the rim and serve as a LaMelo Ball lob threat, and Williams can be just that. The Duke center stands 7-0, 243 pounds with a 7-7 wingspan and 9-9 reach and would be a massive upgrade from immobile (and free throw liability) Mason Plumlee.
E.J. Liddell UNDER 20.5 (+160)
This pick serves as a higher-risk, higher-reward bet. I just can't get away from the possibility of Liddell getting scooped by the Bulls at No. 18 and cashing our +160. He's a big-bodied 6-7 at 250 pounds, and he defends like a 6-9 stretch-four. He also has inside-outside scoring ability, and NBA-caliber athleticism. He seems like a natural fit in Billy Donovan's system, especially given the fact that Derrick Jones Jr. will most likely be leaving the Chi this summer.
MORE: Odds on First Players Drafted by Bulls, Knicks, and Cavs
NBA Draft 2022 odds: Pairings 1 vs. 1 – First to be Drafted
A.J. Griffin (+160) over Johnny Davis (-200)
We've already discussed that Davis could easily fall into the teens while Griffin's pure shooting stroke should be nabbed up by No. 11. The volatility here is obvious, as things become more mysterious the deeper we get into the draft. This prop could end up a "Who will Washington pick?" prop. Bradley Beal would benefit more from Griffin's 45-percent three-point shooting than he would from the playmaking of Davis.
See also: Team’s First Pick – Davis to Knicks (+450), Cleveland (+1300)
E.J. Liddell (-185) over Nikola Jovic (+145)
I loved this showdown last week when we got Liddell at +120, but I guess sportsbooks caught on when all the action poured in. Liddell seems like a very popular prognostication for Chicago at No. 18 or Minnesota at No. 19, and Jovic looks like a great fit with Gregg Popovic in San Antonio if he can learn to play NBA defense. Lock it in, even though you're late to the party!
See also: Team’s First Pick – Liddell to Chicago (+1000)
NBA Draft 2022 odds: Best value to be picked top 10
Jalen Duren (-120)
Duren has been a popular name popping up for San Antonio at No. 9. Kyle Irving wrote in his Mock Draft that the big man's speed, fluidity, and physicality would provide the Spurs with instant impacts. He could be the big man of San Antonio's future, the third piece next to franchise building blocks Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson. As Irving said, "Who better to bring the most out of Duren than the organization that groomed Hall of Fame bigs like David Robinson and Tim Duncan?"
Jeremy Sochan (+175)
Sochan has size, strength, and switchability defensively, and he appears wise beyond his 19 years. If Duren does not go to San Antonio at No. 9, Sochan should be the guy. At 6-9, 230 pounds with a 7-0 wingspan, he can guard all five positions and clean the glass effortlessly. I might hold off on this prop until I hear more from the Spurs camp leading up to the draft, but I wouldn't blame you for pulling the trigger right here and now.
