Complete history of NBA Draft Lottery winners: Year-by-year odds for every team to win No. 1 overall pick

Gilbert McGregor

Complete history of NBA Draft Lottery winners: Year-by-year odds for every team to win No. 1 overall pick image

We all can appreciate a long shot, right?

Each year, the NBA Draft Lottery sees the futures of 14 teams hinge upon a series of ping pong balls and the ultimate game of odds.

Since 2019, the three teams with the worst record in the previous season each have a 14.0 percent chance of winning the top pick in the draft. From there, odds are staggered to where every team still has an opportunity. 

MORE: Most interesting storylines heading into 2022 NBA Draft Lottery

The team with the best record among the 14 lottery teams has a 0.5 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick.

So, yes, I'm telling you there's a chance.

While lottery results are largely based on odds, luck is certainly a factor as well. Look back at the most recent teams to defy odds to win the top pick in the NBA Draft.

Longest odds to win NBA Draft Lottery since 1990

Since the weighted lottery system was adopted in 1990, eight teams that had a first-pick probability of 6.30 percent or lower have won the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, with the most recent team being the Pelicans in 2019.

In 1993, the Magic won the lottery with a 1.5 percent probability, marking the largest lottery upset in the weighted era.

Year Team Probability (Rank) Selection
2019 Pelicans 6.00% (T-7th) Zion Williamson
2014 Cavaliers 1.40% (9th) Andrew Wiggins
2011 Clippers (conveyed to Cavaliers) 2.80% (8th) Kyrie Irving
2008 Bulls 1.70% (9th) Derrick Rose
2007 Trail Blazers  5.30% (6th) Greg Oden
2005 Bucks 6.30% (6th) Andrew Bogut
2000 Nets 4.40% (7th) Kenyon Martin
1993 Magic 1.52% (11th) Chris Webber

2022 NBA Draft Lottery Odds 

Here are the odds for the 2022 NBA Draft lottery.

The Top 4 column represents a team's chances of earning one of the top four picks in the NBA Draft, while the No. 1 Pick column represents a team's chances of winning the top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.

Team Record Top 4 No. 1 Pick
Rockets 20-62 52.1% 14.0%
Magic 22-60 52.1% 14.0%
Pistons 23-59 52.1% 14.0%
Thunder 24-58 48.1% 12.5%
Pacers 25-57 42.1% 10.5%
Trail Blazers 27-55 37.2% 9.0%
Kings 30-52 32.0% 7.5%
Lakers → Pelicans 33-49 26.3% 6.0%
Spurs 34-48 20.3% 4.5%
Wizards 35-47 11.7% 3.0%
Knicks 36-46 11.7% 2.0%
Clippers → Thunder 42-40 7.1% 1.5%
Hornets 43-39 4.8% 1.0%
Cavaliers 44-38 2.4% 0.5%

The Pelicans acquired the Lakers' pick in the 2019 trade that sent Anthony Davis to Los Angeles.

The Thunder acquired the Clippers' pick in the 2019 trade that sent Paul George to Los Angeles.

History of No. 1 overall picks in NBA Draft

Here is every team in the lottery era (since 1985) to win the No. 1 overall pick along with their pre-lottery odds. From 1985-89, every team in the lottery had the same odds to win the No. 1 overall pick. The NBA began using weighted odds by record starting in 1990.

Year Team No. 1 Pick Probability Pre-Lottery Position Selection
2021 Pistons 14.0% T-1st Cade Cunningham
2020 Timberwolves 14.0% T-1st Anthony Edwards
2019 Pelicans 6.0% 7th Zion Williamson
2018 Suns 25.0% 1st Deandre Ayton
2017 76ers (via Celtics) 25.0% 1st Markelle Fultz
2016 76ers 25.0% 1st Ben Simmons
2015 Timberwolves 25.0% 1st Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Cavaliers 1.7% 9th Andrew Wiggins
2013 Cavaliers 15.6% 3rd Anthony Bennett
2012 Hornets 13.7% 4th Anthony Davis
2011 Cavaliers (via Clippers) 2.8% 8th Kyrie Irving
2010 Wizards 10.3% 5th John Wall
2009 Clippers 17.7% 3rd Blake Griffin
2008 Bulls 1.7% 9th Derrick Rose
2007 Trail Blazers 5.3% 7th Greg Oden
2006 Raptors 8.8% 5th Andrea Bargnani
2005 Bucks 6.3% 6th Andrew Bogut
2004 Magic 25% 1st Dwight Howard
2003 Cavaliers 22.5% T-1st LeBron James
2002 Rockets 8.9% 5th Yao Ming
2001 Wizards 15.7% 3rd Kwame Brown
2000 Nets 4.4% 7th Kenyon Martin
1999 Bulls 15.7% 3rd Elton Brand
1998 Clippers 22.5% 2nd Michael Olowakandi
1997 Spurs 21.6% 2nd Tim Duncan
1996 76ers 33.7% 1st Allen Iverson
1995 Warriors 9.4% 5th Joe Smith
1994 Bucks 16.3% 4th Glenn Robinson
1993 Magic 1.5% 11th Chris Webber
1992 Magic 15.2% 2nd Shaquille O'Neal
1991 Hornets 10.6% 5th Larry Johnson
1990 Nets 16.7% 1st Derrick Coleman
1989 Kings 11.1% T-1st Pervis Ellison
1988 Clippers 14.3% T-1st Danny Manning
1987 Spurs 14.3% T-1st David Robinson
1986 Cavaliers (via 76ers) 14.3% T-1st Brad Daugherty
1985 Knicks 14.3% T-1st Patrick Ewing

 

 

 

 

 

Gilbert McGregor

Gilbert McGregor Photo

Gilbert McGregor first joined The Sporting News in 2018 as a content producer for Global editions of NBA.com. Before covering the game, McGregor played basketball collegiately at Wake Forest, graduating with a Communication degree in 2016. McGregor began covering the NBA during the 2017-18 season and has been on hand for a number of league events.