There's a good chance LeBron James will be crowned the NBA's leading scorer this season.
A very good chance.
James enters the 2022-23 season with a total of 37,062 regular-season points in his career. The only player ahead of him on the all-time scoring list is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who racked up 38,387 points in his career.
That means James is 1,326 points away from taking over the top spot from Abdul-Jabbar.
How many games will it take James to reach that total? Let's take a closer look.
When will LeBron James become NBA's all-time leading scorer?
Based on how many points James has averaged over the last few seasons, it should take him between 40 and 60 games to become the NBA's all-time leading scorer, so between the start of January and the end of February.
Put it this way: If James averages exactly 25.0 points like he did in 2020-21, he'll break Abdul-Jabbar's record in 54 games. If he averages 30.3 points like he did in 2021-22, he'll set the record in 44 games.
Even if James averages a career-low 20.0 points, it will take him 67 games.
No matter how you slice it, less than 82 games is a safe bet, assuming good health.
| Scoring average | Games to break record |
| 20 | 67 |
| 21 | 64 |
| 22 | 61 |
| 23 | 58 |
| 24 | 56 |
| 25 | 54 |
| 26 | 51 |
| 27 | 50 |
| 28 | 48 |
| 29 | 46 |
| 30 | 45 |
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One would think the only thing that could prevent James from breaking the record this season, then, is availability.
It's a legitimate concern.
While James has been one of the most durable players in NBA history, he has missed a decent amount of time over the last couple of seasons. In 2020-21, he appeared in 45 of a possible 72 games due to injuries. He then played in 56 of a possible 82 games in 2021-22.
Perhaps James will make everyone look silly yet again and be healthy most of the 2022-23 season, but for a 37-year-old who has racked up as many miles as he has, it's no guarantee.
Either way, it sure does feel like a matter of when, not if, James surpasses Abdul-Jabbar at this point. He's still playing at an All-NBA level and he recently signed a two-year extension with the Lakers.
James has no business still being this good, and yet it feels like we're still a ways away from any retirement talk.
Most career points among active players
LeBron James (2nd) and Carmelo Anthony (9th) enter the season as the only active players inside the top 20 on the NBA's all-time scoring list. However, Kevin Durant is knocking on the door as he enters the season in 21st with 25,526 points, just 87 points shy of Alex English.
Rounding out the top 10 among active players with all-time rank in parenthesis: James Harden (28th), Russell Westbrook (30th), Chris Paul (39th), LaMarcus Aldridge (44th), Stephen Curry (47th), DeMar DeRozan (50th) and Dwight Howard (55th).
