As the NBA's player pool gets more talented, it becomes increasingly difficult to select only 24 players to make the All-Star team every year.
Rookies and second-year players are starting to impact the game in a more immediate fashion. 22 and 23-year-olds are beginning to look like they're in their prime despite knowing there's another level to be tapped into in the coming seasons. Even some teams with the worst records in the NBA have players who deserve a second look at cracking the World's Greatest Pickup Game.
There's no better reminder that the league is in good hands than trying to trim a group of 40-plus extremely gifted players down to 24, inevitably leaving some future stars snubbed of breaking the threshold to All-Stardom.
And yet, there is always a group of players who take a major leap year-over-year, flirting with the potential of cracking the All-Star team for the first time. For that group, their chances of All-Stardom typically come down to the number of spots available after the "locks" are cleared for each conference.
In an effort to analyze the potential first-time All-Stars for the 2022-23 season, first, I had to see how many roster spots were up for grabs. Take a look at the breakdown for each conference.
MORE: How to vote for the 2023 NBA All-Star Game
Potential Eastern Conference first-time NBA All-Stars in 2023
In the Eastern Conference, I counted six "locks" for the All-Star Game: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell and Jaylen Brown.
The list of players on the fence in the East got long pretty quickly, including names like Pascal Siakam, Jimmy Butler, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Darius Garland, Bam Adebayo, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, Fred VanVleet and Julius Randle.
Including four potential first-time All-Stars, that's 16 players fighting for roughly six spots in the East.
Condolences to Tyrese Maxey, who would have surely cracked this list if he remained healthy, or Bojan Bogdanovic, who would be the Pistons' representative if the NBA adopted MLB's format of one All-Star per team.
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Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
Of all the potential first-time All-Stars, Haliburton feels the most likely to be selected. The 22-year-old has been one of the best playmakers in the NBA this season, taking the leap to All-Stardom as a Most Improved Player of the Year candidate.
Haliburton leads the entire league with 310 total assists and 10.7 assists per game. He had a three-game stretch with 40 assists and zero turnovers — something that had never been done in NBA history. He's posting a career-best 19.5 points and his 18 double-doubles are the most by a guard and tied for third-most in the NBA behind Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis and Anthony Davis.
To add to all of that, he has provided direction as the Pacers' franchise cornerstone, keeping his team around .500 while nearly exceeding their preseason over/under win projection before the halfway point of the season.
That sounds like an All-Star to me. In fact, given Indiana's much more competitive than expected performance, Haliburton might even be closer to lock status than truly on the fence.
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
It's been over 30 years since a Knicks point guard made the All-Star team. In fact, when Mark Jackson made it in 1989, Jalen Brunson wasn't even born yet.
The former Maverick faced a lot of pressure coming into this season after inking a four-year, $104 million deal with the Knicks this offseason. Through his first 30 games, he's playing so well that it's starting to look like New York may have even gotten a slight discount on its franchise point guard.
Brunson is averaging a career-high 20.8 points, 6.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He already has five 30-point games and eight games with eight or more assists this season. He's also established himself as the Knicks' closer in crunch time, as his 60 points in the clutch are tied for third-most in the NBA.
With New York turning its season around on an eight-game win streak, Brunson is entering All-Star territory. He'll have to beat out his teammate, Randle, to get there, though.
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
Herro is a curious case because cracking the All-Star team would mean he has to beat out Butler and Adebayo given the Heat's current place in the Eastern Conference standings. And still, he feels worthy of a mention because of how important he has been to Miami this season.
Coming off of a Sixth Man of the Year campaign, Herro is embracing his new role as a starter, averaging career-highs with 21.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 0.9 steals per game. With Butler missing a handful of games due to injury, Herro took over as the team's primary scorer and he's red hot right as All-Star voting is coming around.
Herro recently had a two-game stretch where he went for 35 points, nine 3-pointers and a game-winning shot, then followed that performance with 41 points and 10 3-pointers. He joined two of the greatest 3-point shooters ever — Stephen Curry and James Harden — as the only players to hit nine or more 3s in two consecutive games.
Before you're quick to assume Miami's All-Star should be Butler or Adebayo, give Herro another look.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Okay, it's hard to make a case for a rookie on a team with an 11-20 record, but Banchero still deserves a mention. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft has made the transition to the NBA look easy, averaging 22.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game.
He has more games with 20 points, 10 rebounds and five assists than his entire rookie class combined. His three 30-point games are tied with the rest of his rookie class, while his 19 20-point games are the most by a long shot.
He may not become the first rookie All-Star since Blake Griffin in 2009, but he'll cross the All-Star threshold sooner than later.
(Editor's note: If we're talking potential Magic All-Stars, Franz Wagner would also like a word.)
Potential Western Conference first-time NBA All-Stars in 2023
In the Western Conference, I counted eight "locks" for the All-Star Game: Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, Ja Morant and Zion Williamson.
While that is more than the East had, the list of players on the fence is considerably shorter, narrowed down to three names — Damian Lillard, Paul George and Brandon Ingram — who have all missed games due to injury this season. (For what it's worth, Kawhi Leonard simply hasn't played enough games to receive consideration.)
Including four potential first-time All-Stars, that's roughly nine players fighting for the last four spots in the West.
Condolences to Desmond Bane, whose toe injury plagued a potential All-Star bid, and career-long fringe-All-Star CJ McCollum, who picked a tough year to have a slow start to the season. For now, Davis remains a lock but that could become questionable depending on how much time he misses for the Lakers.
MORE: Can the Warriors survive without Stephen Curry?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Although he wasn't included in the section above, Gilgeous-Alexander feels like a lock for this year's All-Star Game. Even with the Thunder owning one of the worst records in the league, Gilgeous-Alexander has been nothing short of incredible this season.
The 24-year-old is averaging a career-high 31.2 points with 5.8 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. His 69 points in the clutch are second-most in the NBA, as are his 19 30-point games. He's already knocked down several clutch shots for the Thunder this year and has established himself as one of the most promising young talents in the league.
SGA's leap to All-Stardom is upon us. The only thing holding SGA back would be a Thunder tumble down the standings. Even so, they could probably lose every game from here on out and he'd likely be on the All-Star roster come February.
De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
Fox has been the engine behind the Kings' exhilarating — and surprising — start to the season. Averaging 22.6 points, 5.8 assists and 5.0 rebounds, he has the Kings firmly planted in the mix for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, looking to end the longest active playoff drought in United States professional sports (2005-06, 17 years).
If the Kings can continue to hold on to a playoff-caliber record, Fox should crack his first-ever All-Star Game this season.
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Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
It took some time for the new-look Timberwolves to get adjusted, but Edwards is starting to find his groove as Minnesota navigates injuries. With Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined, Edwards has taken the driver's seat in Minnesota.
He's averaging 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game while shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from 3 — all of which are career-highs.
With the Timberwolves starting to turn things around a bit, Edwards could sneak into All-Star consideration if he can keep his team in the playoff hunt throughout the voting period.
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
Markkanen has been one of the feel-good stories of the season so far, as the former top-10 pick has played up to his potential. Markkanen is enjoying a breakout season, averaging 22.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game on impressive .528/.418/.843 shooting splits.
The Jazz were expected to be one of the worst teams (if not, the worst team) in the NBA this season, leading the Victor Wembanyama Sweepstakes. Utah was projected to win 23.5 games in 2022-23 and it already has 17 wins through 32 games, with Markkanen's leap playing a massive role in the Jazz exceeding expectations.
With the Jazz in the Play-In Tournament range, they could garner an All-Star selection and Markkanen as an easy choice.
