This is a big week for Draymond Green and the Warriors.
Why? Starting on Wednesday, Aug. 3, Green is eligible to sign a multi-year extension with Golden State.
It's going to be very interesting to see how negotiations play out. According to The Athletic's Anthony Slater and Marcus Thompson II, Green "wants and believes" he deserves a maximum contract extension. The Warriors, however, don't seem to be on quite the same page.
In their report, Slater and Thompson mention that there "isn't any current traction on any type of extension." Golden State's preference right now is to delay the conversation until next summer, but that could have a ripple effect.
"While his desire is to remain with the Warriors, Green is said to be willing to explore his outside options to get the kind of contract he wants," Slater and Thompson write. "That’s a risk Warriors’ management appears willing to take. Green playing this season with a chip on his shoulder, motivated by proving to the league he deserves a max contract, could have a positive on-court impact."
Should the Warriors just give Green the extension he's looking for to avoid any feathers being ruffled? There are a few factors to consider.
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How good is Draymond Green?
Green is a polarizing player, but there aren't many who impact the game at the level he does.
Since being selected with the 35th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, Green has racked up four All-Star selections, two All-NBA selections, one Defensive Player of the Year award and seven All-Defensive selections.
Sounds like a lot of All-Defensive selections, right? Only 18 players in NBA history have earned more, a list that includes the likes of Tim Duncan (15), Kevin Garnett (12), Michael Jordan (9) and Dennis Rodman (8).
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Even that doesn't do Green's defensive impact justice. Quite simply, he's one of the smartest and most impactful defenders who have ever stepped foot on a basketball court, and he's still a force in his early 30s. Had injuries not limited him to 46 games in the 2021-22 season, he probably would've picked up his second Defensive Player of the Year award.
Who Green defended on Golden State's road to the 2022 title tells you everything you need to know about what makes him special. He went from guarding Nikola Jokic in the first round to Jaren Jackson Jr. in the second round to Jalen Brunson in the Conference Finals to Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams III in the Finals. The numbers point to him having a lot of success against each one of them.
If that wasn't enough, players shot 16.6 percentage points worse than expected in the 2022 NBA Playoffs when Green was protecting the rim. So not only does he have the strength to defend a bruising center like Jokic and the speed to keep up with a shifty guard like Brunson, but he's a nightmare to score against at the basket.
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Green's impact on offense is harder to quantify. He's averaged only 7.4 points per game since the 2018-19 season and him knocking down 38.8 percent of his 3-point attempts in 2015-16 has proven to be an outlier.
If you look up how Green's accuracy from different shooting locations stacks up with other players at his position on Cleaning The Glass, you'll see a whole lot of blue, meaning he's below average.
That's obviously a problem that will probably only get worse as he continues to age, but Green makes up for some of his scoring and shooting limitations with his passing.
There's something to be said about knowing one's weaknesses. Would the Warriors benefit from Green looking to score more at times? Sure, but the shots he doesn't take usually go to one of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who are two of the greatest shooters in NBA history.
Green's chemistry with Curry in particular is almost unmatched. They form a punishing duo that capitalizes on every little mistake.
There's other stuff Green does that doesn't show up in the box score, Game 2 of the 2022 NBA Finals being a great example. While his stats weren't anything to write home about, his fingerprints were all over the game. He sure did push the limits, but the intensity and physicality he brought rubbed off on everyone else on the Warriors.
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Draymond Green contract details
Green signed a four-year, $100 million extension with the Warriors ahead of the 2019-20 season. He's on the books for $25.8 million in 2022-23 and he has a player option worth $27.6 million in 2023-24. That means he could be an unrestricted free agent after the upcoming season.
According to Slater and Thompson, the maximum extension Green can sign with the Warriors is four years, $138.4 million.
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | |
| Draymond Green | $25,806,469 | $27,586,225 (PO) | UFA |
PO = Player option
UFA = Unrestricted free agent
How much is Draymond Green worth?
TSN's Steph Noh built a model to evaluate player contracts. You can read all about it here.
Assuming Green plays 2,100 minutes next season, Noh's model values Green at $31.0 million, so slightly more than he's going to make. Green didn't come close to reaching that minute total last season and Noh's model doesn't factor in age decline, but even a 20 percent dropoff would value him at $27.8 million.
That raises one more important question.
What do the models say about Draymond Green's longevity?
It's fair to wonder how much more Green, who is entering his age 32 season, has left in the tank. DARKO, which Noh calls the "best public predictive model out there," can provide some insight.
There's not a clear apples-to-apples comparison for Green because he's such a unique player, but Metta World Peace, Tony Allen and Ben Wallace fit the bill of defensive specialists with limited offensive games. (To be clear, that applies much more to Green, Allen and Wallace than it does to Metta World Peace, but he is still known more for his defense than his offense.)
Based on DPM, which measures a player's overall impact on the court, Green had a bounceback season in 2021-22, but Metta World Peace, Allen and Wallace were each clearly on the decline at the same stage in their careers.
That should give the Warriors a lot to chew on as they navigate what could become choppy waters if they're not careful.
