'He's going to spark him out': UFC 286 predictions as MMA stars give verdicts on Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman

Ben Miller

'He's going to spark him out': UFC 286 predictions as MMA stars give verdicts on Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman image

The trilogy bout between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman at UFC 286 in London has divided many of the fighters on the card.

Some are certain home favourite Edwards will retain the title he won by knocking Usman out in 2022, while others expect the long-serving former champion to justify his status as the bookmakers' favourite.

Fighters such as Jai Herbert — who trains with Edwards — could claim inside knowledge, while British UFC legends Michael Bisping and Jimi Manuwa have also called the headline clash during fight week.

Here's what MMA stars have had to say ahead of Edwards vs Usman 3 at the O2 Arena.

MORE: UFC 286: Live streams, PPV price, cost for Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman 3

Edwards vs Usman 3 predictions — UFC 286

Justin Gaethje, lightweight (fighting Rafael Fiziev at UFC 286): "They've been in there for 39 minutes. Kamaru has dominated 37 of those minutes. He got taken down in the first round of the last fight for about two minutes. Outside of that, he has been the dominant force. I expect the same thing."

Rafael Fiziev: "It's very hard to make a prediction. It's MMA; we saw what happened in the last fight. It's hard to say."

Gunnar Nelson, welterweight (fighting Bryan Barberena): "It's an exciting fight. Leon is going to look a lot better than he did last time.

"The altitude affected him: he didn't look that great, he was slow on his feet and he was a bit... I don't know if he was timid to throw or just saving his energy. He didn't look like himself on the feet. We're going to see a much better Leon and he's going to win.

"Leon is a nice guy — I like him and we get along well. The match with Leon didn't go my way but it was a close one and I wish him all the best."

Leon Edwards - Kamaru Usman
(UFC/ZUFFA LLC)

Bryan Barberena: "I'm going to get some beef about this: Leon's improved a lot, he's a great fighter, but I'm leaning towards Usman getting the win.

"Sorry — it's just my opinion. It's going to be a very different fight. It's going to be a good, exciting fight."

Tom Aspinall, heavyweight co-headliner of the previous two UFC events in London: "Let's not d*** about anymore. Leon is going to spark him out again."

Joanne Wood, flyweight (fighting Luana Carolina): "I've got to go with Leon, although I think the championship's gone to his head. I was getting a massage when he came into the room and let one go. I was like, 'okay, Leon.' It was pretty funny."

MORE: UFC 286 odds, predictions, expert picks for Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3

Chris Duncan, lightweight (fighting Omar Morales): "Oh man, it's such a tough one. I would really like Leon to win because he's from the UK — that would be great for British MMA. The way I would play it, if I was Kamaru Usman, would be to wrestle heavy and early to try to get that belt back."

Michael Bisping, UFC commentator and former middleweight champion: "I'm commentating on the fight, and I always say that it's very, very disrespectful to both men if a commentator is to say beforehand 'this guy or that guy is going to win'. It's pretty disrespectful.

"However, I see a clear path to victory for both men. For Kamaru Usman, it's the wrestling, of course. He used rounds two, three and four last time to great effect.

"If it's a fight on the feet, it's Leon's fight all day. He's clearly the better striker. That's what this fight comes down to: can Kamaru take him down or not?

Leon Edwards - Kamaru Usman
(Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/GETTY)

"In rounds two, three and four, Leon did a really good job of stopping the takedowns or getting back up when he was taken down. He wasn't outclassed, he was just a little bit behind in those rounds.

"Usman's going to be very, very careful; he's going to be very tentative. He got knocked out last time, so he might be a little bit gunshy.

"Leon's grown in confidence, he's really grown into being a champion. He's going to come out super-aggressive. I'm not saying it happens, but you never know — maybe round one."

Muhammad Mokaev, flyweight (fighting Jafel Filho): "It's a good fight. Usman will win."

Christian Duncan, middleweight (fighting Dusko Todorovic): "Oh, I'm looking forward to it. I watched the last one live and I was out of my seat when Leon got the head kick finish.

"I'm supporting my guy from the UK. I like Usman as a fighter — he's a great fighter and seems like a great guy, too — but I'm rooting for the home guy."

Jack Shore, featherweight (fighting Makwan Amirkhani): "I've got to back Leon. This fight wouldn't be happening if Leon didn't do what he did in August.

"But it will be a close fight. It won't be as one-sided as the last one in terms of Usman dominating. It'll be a close fight and down to the wire but I'm confident Leon will pull it out."

MORE: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 purse, salaries for UFC 286

Jai Herbert, lightweight (fighting Ludovit Klein): "I feel like Leon's going to get another stoppage. I've watched him in training and trained with him myself: he's on form and looking incredible. I fancy him to go out there and stop Kamaru again."

Jimi Manuwa, former UFC light heavyweight: "I'm friends with both of them but Leon can match Kamaru in every way. I watched the second fight last night and I think Leon can match him."

Jake Hadley, flyweight (fighting Malcolm Gordon): "The altitude had a bit more of an effect on Leon than he thought it would last time.

"We share some of the same coaches and he's been looking good in training. We've been going to the track together, doing our cardio and running. He's looking really fit and strong. I expect him to put on a dominant performance."

MORE: When is UFC 286? Date, start time, channel, live streams

Lerone Murphy, featherweight (fighting Gabriel Santos): "I think 'Rocky' does it again. I don't know how he does it but probably points or another finish.

"I feel like he's got that confidence and he'll be in front of a home crowd. I don't know if Usman's going to be the same fighter."

Roman Dolidze, middleweight (fighting Marvin Vettori): "Kamaru will win this fight. But this is MMA and one shot can change things, as their last fight proved."

Marvin Vettori: "Kamaru will do it again. He'll get the belt back."

Kamaru Usman
(Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/GETTY)

Sam Patterson, lightweight (fighting Yanal Ashmouz): "Leon gets the job done. I'm not being biased, I swear.

"It's going to be a great fight. I'm a fan of the sport so I look forward to getting my fight done, doing my media obligations, getting a slice of cake and sitting back and watching the show. Leon is truly the best in the world."

When is UFC 286: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3? 

  • Date: Saturday, March 18 | Sunday, March 19
  • Early FIGHT PASS Prelims: 1 p.m. ET | 5 p.m. GMT | 4 a.m. AEDT
  • Prelims: 3 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. GMT | 6 a.m. AEDT
  • Main card: 5 p.m. ET | 9 p.m. GMT | 8 a.m. AEDT
  • Main event: 8 p.m. ET | 12 a.m. GMT | 11 a.m. AEDT (approx.) 

UFC 286 takes place on Match 18. The FIGHT PASS prelims will begin at around 1 p.m. ET. The prelims will go live at 3 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV. Edwards and Usman should make their way to the octagon around 8 p.m. ET, depending on how long the undercard fights last.

MORE: How to bet UFC 286: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3

How to watch UFC 286: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3

Country Date Channel + Live Stream (main card)
United States Sat. March 18 ESPN+, ESPN PPV
Canada Sat. March 18 BELL, Rogers, Shaw, SaskTel,  Videotron, Telus, Eastlink, UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass
United Kingdom Sat. March 18 BT Sport
Australia Sun. March 19 Main Event, Kayo Sports, Fetch TV, UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass

The main card for UFC 286 is available in the U.S. and Mexico on the ESPN+ subscription streaming service for a pay-per-view cost. Earlier fights are viewable live on ESPN+. 

In Canada, the main card pay-per-view is available on BELL, Rogers, Shaw, SaskTel, Videotron, Telus, Eastlink, and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.

In the United Kingdom, the main card will be available on BT Sport, with the prelims on UFC Fight Pass. 

In Australia, the main card will be on Main Event, Kayo Sports, Fetch TV, and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.

MORE: Dana White confirms next opponent for Jon Jones

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 price: How much does UFC 286 cost? 

  • $79.99 (current ESPN+ subscribers)
  • $124.98 (new subscribers)

In the U.S., the UFC 286 main card is available via pay-per-view on ESPN+, which also requires a subscription. The PPV price for UFC 286 is $79.99 for current subscribers. New subscribers can pay a bundle price of $124.98 for the UFC 286 pay-per-view and an ESPN+ annual subscription, which offers savings of more than 30 percent.

BT Sport Box Office will charge £19.99 to access live coverage of the card. The buying window opens on March 10.

MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 286 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+

Product Prices
ESPN+ Monthly Subscription $9.99/month
ESPN+ Annual Subscription $99.99/year
The Disney Bundle w/Hulu Ad-Supported $13.99/month
The Disney Bundle w/Hulu No-Ads $19.99/month
UFC PPV Standalone $74.99 each
UFC PPV Package (UFC PPV & ESPN+ Annual) $99.98, then $69.99/year
UFC PPV & The Disney Bundle

$88.98, then $13.99/month

Click here to learn about the different pricing and bundling options with the ESPN+ platform.

Ben Miller

Ben Miller Photo

Ben Miller has been writing about sport for 25 years, following all levels of football as well as boxing, MMA, athletics and tennis. He’s seen five promotions, three relegations, one World Cup winner and home games in at least three different stadiums as a result of his lifelong devotion to Brighton & Hove Albion. His main aim each week is to cover at least one game or event that does not require a last-minute rewrite.